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re: Best way to beat Trump in 2020 -- cause a Recession.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:32 am to 90proofprofessional
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:32 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
who's saying there's going to be a recession this year or next, and why? trade restrictions? spiking oil prices?
My personal concern is interest rates.
Mortgage applications are dropping in response. We will see if that creates a ripple.
1
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:34 am to ShortyRob
quote:
My personal concern is interest rates.
well you should only be concerned if they get raised way too high and way too fast
i do think we should keep them here and tolerate a nice long string of above-target inflation, just like we tolerated a nice long string of below-target inflation
i don't think we will raise them too fast or high
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:34 am to Champagne
...............
This post was edited on 5/10/18 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:35 am to Jyrdis
quote:
A lot of macroeconomists think there will be a recession later this year or sometime next year,
Sounds like a Ron Paul quote. He's been appearing on my pop-ups for about four years now saying the same thing. Glad I didn't listen to him and cash in my chips.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:39 am to 90proofprofessional
{“A lot of macroeconomists think there will be a recession later this year or sometime next year
i haven't seen any of the typical professional forecasting firms or agencies saying that, although it does seem to be consensus that this year will be better than last year just because of the demand-side stimulus from the tax bill
who's saying there's going to be a recession this year or next, and why? trade restrictions? spiking oil prices?”}
Dr Kelly of JP Morgan as well as Brian Wesbury of First Trust both think it’s virtually impossible for a recession this year. They have pinpointed late 2019 or 2020 as a possibility for one however due to Fed budget spending.
They expect GDP to gradually rise and then peak early to mid next year then start to shrink again.
i haven't seen any of the typical professional forecasting firms or agencies saying that, although it does seem to be consensus that this year will be better than last year just because of the demand-side stimulus from the tax bill
who's saying there's going to be a recession this year or next, and why? trade restrictions? spiking oil prices?”}
Dr Kelly of JP Morgan as well as Brian Wesbury of First Trust both think it’s virtually impossible for a recession this year. They have pinpointed late 2019 or 2020 as a possibility for one however due to Fed budget spending.
They expect GDP to gradually rise and then peak early to mid next year then start to shrink again.
This post was edited on 5/10/18 at 10:40 am
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:39 am to Champagne
If the cause s recession then we wouldn’t have the money to pay for their crazy plans .
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:42 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
who's saying there's going to be a recession this year or next, and why? trade restrictions? spiking oil prices?
You know who. And I didn't say I agreed with it.
This post was edited on 5/10/18 at 10:43 am
Posted on 5/10/18 at 10:56 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
Or spend low 6 digits on anti Trump Facebook ads.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:00 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:I wouldn't call it a grave concern. Just something to watch.
well you should only be concerned if they get raised way too high and way too fast
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:03 am to Champagne
fricking bankers man that's how
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:08 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
i do think we should keep them here and tolerate a nice long string of above-target inflation, just like we tolerated a nice long string of below-target inflation
With the CPI release today, we're seeing about 2.5% inflation YoY. The fed funds rate is currently 1.69%. IF we get three more rate hikes, I'd be interested to see how high they go. I think I've seen rates forecast to be 2.1-2.2%.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:12 am to Jyrdis
quote:
You know who
i really don't
you saying it like makes me think it's a pundit maybe, like kruggles?
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:16 am to Champagne
quote:
Here's a question for economists and people who have studied economics -- how could the Dems and their acolytes cause a recession in early 2020 in order to facilitate a Dem White House win in 2020?
Lower consumer confidence.
It will actually have the opposite effect if the Dems control congress. A gridlock usually means less legislation which is more stable and historically better for the economy.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:18 am to Champagne
The way for democrats to capitalize in 2020 or in the midterms is to use Trumps own words against him.
In the campaign Trump said Obama numbers on the economy was inflated. Why they are inflated is because on average 10,000 baby boomers retire or leave the workforce each day. That means if 300,000 leave the workforce each month the new jobs created needs to be higher than 300,000.
Taking the 5th Amendment
The wall
The swamp
That is just 4 examples
What will help Trump is his strong base and if his foreign policy continues to look really good. His foreign policy will help with independent voters.
In the campaign Trump said Obama numbers on the economy was inflated. Why they are inflated is because on average 10,000 baby boomers retire or leave the workforce each day. That means if 300,000 leave the workforce each month the new jobs created needs to be higher than 300,000.
Taking the 5th Amendment
The wall
The swamp
That is just 4 examples
What will help Trump is his strong base and if his foreign policy continues to look really good. His foreign policy will help with independent voters.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:19 am to Jyrdis
quote:
I think I've seen rates forecast to be 2.1-2.2%.
I remember the 18% 30 year lending rate for homeowners back in about 1980. We still have a long way to go.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:34 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
kruggles
That's one. I also recall seeing some old surveys where some at the NBER and other places were predicting one. Though, iirc, these were old--something like a year or two ago.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:38 am to Champagne
quote:
how could the Dems and their acolytes cause a recession in early 2020 in order to facilitate a Dem White House win in 2020?
They could all quit their jobs to halt production..... Oh wait nvmd
Posted on 5/10/18 at 11:41 am to Champagne
Don't give them any ideas, the liberals and dems will all go on a 2 yr grub diet, walk to work and burn candles just to make it happen.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:13 pm to RG550
I have no idea. That's why I started the thread in hopes of getting feedback from some who know a bit about economics.
Posted on 5/10/18 at 12:25 pm to Champagne
War. Most major conflicts we have been in over the last 150 years have sparked recessions. There have been a decent amount in our history.
1865-1867 Civil War
1899-1900 Spanish American War
1918-1919 WWI
1945 WWII
1953 Korean War
1973-1975 Vietnam War
1991 Gulf War I
2007-2009 Gulf War II
1865-1867 Civil War
1899-1900 Spanish American War
1918-1919 WWI
1945 WWII
1953 Korean War
1973-1975 Vietnam War
1991 Gulf War I
2007-2009 Gulf War II
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