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Battleground polls: Will Trump defy the odds again?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:38 am
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:38 am
According to this 538 article from 2012, if a candidate leads in a state by more than 1.5 points, they win the state every single time (with one exception since 1980):
There were 0 cases of a candidate winning a state in which they trailed by more than 3.5 points.
Fast forward to 2016. Trump did it 3 times:
So, is Trump a unique candidate in some way? Should we expect him to do it again in 2020? Or was 2016 simply a one-time fluke?
For reference, here are the contested states he's losing by more than 3.5 points in the RCP average right now:
MI 5.2
NV 5.3
WI 5.5
PA 6.5
NH 8.4
MN 9.4
MI, NV, and WI are essentially the same margin as WI 2016. PA, NH, and MN are currently more out of reach than anything Trump won in 2016. (This fact about PA surprises me given recent voter registration data)
Note that in 2016 Trump also flipped 2 of the 4 states he trailed by 3.5 or less (NC 0.7 and FL 0.6). He would need to do likewise in all 6 of these this year:
GA 0.3
IA 0.5
NC 0.5
FL 2.0
OH 2.5
AZ 3.1
There were 0 cases of a candidate winning a state in which they trailed by more than 3.5 points.
Fast forward to 2016. Trump did it 3 times:
So, is Trump a unique candidate in some way? Should we expect him to do it again in 2020? Or was 2016 simply a one-time fluke?
For reference, here are the contested states he's losing by more than 3.5 points in the RCP average right now:
MI 5.2
NV 5.3
WI 5.5
PA 6.5
NH 8.4
MN 9.4
MI, NV, and WI are essentially the same margin as WI 2016. PA, NH, and MN are currently more out of reach than anything Trump won in 2016. (This fact about PA surprises me given recent voter registration data)
Note that in 2016 Trump also flipped 2 of the 4 states he trailed by 3.5 or less (NC 0.7 and FL 0.6). He would need to do likewise in all 6 of these this year:
GA 0.3
IA 0.5
NC 0.5
FL 2.0
OH 2.5
AZ 3.1
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 9:51 pm
12
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:41 am to RidiculousHype
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/9/21 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:42 am to RidiculousHype
It is just more proof that their polls are biased, faked or just plain wrong. I think they upped this game this cycle, so I believe that Trump is actually comfortably ahead in both the popular and electoral vote this time.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:44 am to ELVIS U
In a way Trump is in a better position now than he was in 2016. No one thought Trump could sweep Florida, NC, and Ohio. Now Trump is a favorite in Florida and probably a given to win Ohio. North Carolina will be the toughest depending on how the black vote breaks, and is in my eyes the biggest battleground of them all. Take NC and go get Wisconsin and the election is won, save Biden pulling a stunner in AZ or IA.
Don't be naive, Trump will lose the popular vote. Luckily the nation is so polarized in terms of geography it doesn't matter.
quote:
so I believe that Trump is actually comfortably ahead in both the popular and electoral vote this time.
Don't be naive, Trump will lose the popular vote. Luckily the nation is so polarized in terms of geography it doesn't matter.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 9:48 am
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:47 am to tide06
quote:
Nate Silver is and has been relying on broken polls.
They were broken in 2016, and the big question is - are they broken again in 2020?
Between 1980-2012, battleground polls were surprisingly reliable.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:47 am to RidiculousHype
At least Obama will go down as a President.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:50 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
They were broken in 2016, and the big question is - are they broken again in 2020?
I wouldn't call them broken, Trump just out performed them by about 3 points. Apply that same skew now and it looks to be a nail biter of an election.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:50 am to RidiculousHype
The "odds" were never against him.
In a fair election, Trump wins bigly, period, end of story.
In a fair election, Trump wins bigly, period, end of story.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:51 am to tide06
If your numerator is a lie and your denominator is a lie, then the resulting fraction is most certainly a lie. 
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:53 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
So, is Trump a unique candidate in some way?
Obviously. Look how much Trump over performed in every swing state poll.
Pollsters do a terrible job of predicting election day outcomes with Trump in the race. IMO it's due to the enthusiasm gap.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 9:56 am
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:54 am to RidiculousHype
polls are fake biased news. Stop paying attention to them. They are lying to you.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:55 am to Ssubba
Trump will lose the popular vote because Democrats control California, New York, and Illinois. Add to that Black controlled large cities where voter fraud will be rampant.
The modeling data is a function of the pollster and his client. Oversampling and carefully constructed questions reach an outcome that skewers numbers in favor of a predicted result.
Example...FOX touting a poll showing Biden up 13 in Florida, and Biden leading among Cuban Americans. Cuban Americans despise Leftists, and Biden has hardly campaigned in Florida.
The modeling data is a function of the pollster and his client. Oversampling and carefully constructed questions reach an outcome that skewers numbers in favor of a predicted result.
Example...FOX touting a poll showing Biden up 13 in Florida, and Biden leading among Cuban Americans. Cuban Americans despise Leftists, and Biden has hardly campaigned in Florida.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 9:56 am to Ssubba
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/9/21 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:00 am to Ssubba
quote:
Trump will lose the popular vote
he is not campaigning for that he is campaigning for EC votes.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:05 am to Ssubba
quote:
I wouldn't call them broken, Trump just out performed them by about 3 points. Apply that same skew now and it looks to be a nail biter of an election.
He overperformed by much more than anything we've seen since at least 1980. On the top end, he beat his polls in UT and OH by 8.5 and 6.6. That just doesn't happen.
I'm fascinated to see if it happens again.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:05 am to Ssubba
quote:
Don't be naive, Trump will lose the popular vote.
While I think so, too, I think he closes the gap from 2016 (the national margin was essentially the margin in California) by, perhaps a million.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:11 am to Ssubba
quote:
Trump will lose the popular vote.
And?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:22 am to RidiculousHype
quote:they are being more deliberately skewed now than 2020, if you look at how these pills are being weighted, we are to believe there are something like 15-30% more Democrats across the board. They are disregarding all the lessons from 2016
They were broken in 2016, and the big question is - are they broken again in 2020?
Between 1980-2012, battleground polls were surprisingly reliable.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:28 am to Janky
I think it always comes down to enthusiasm. It is all anecdotal, but there seems to be 0 enthusiasm for Biden/Harris. Biden will lock up the vote Dem no matter what crowd (40%) and the NeverTrump crowd, but those are all mostly votes against Trump. Those candidates don't typically win.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:37 am to RidiculousHype
Chief pollster for WSJ was on America's First News radio this morning. Bad news for Trump. He's 14 points down. Poll can't be wrong.
Host: 'How did Trump do in your poll in 2016?'
WSJ: 'Well, he was down to Hillary by 12 points.'
Host: 'How did Trump do in your poll in 2016?'
WSJ: 'Well, he was down to Hillary by 12 points.'
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