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re: Battleground polls: Will Trump defy the odds again?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:39 am to tide06
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:39 am to tide06
quote:
Do you believe Biden is out-performing Clinton by 5-7%?
The “once in a lifetime” candidate. NO...WAY.
quote:
Do you believe Trump has lost 5-7% of his his 2016 voters?
NOT A CHANCE IN HELL.
0
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:48 am to Zach
quote:
Chief pollster for WSJ was on America's First News radio this morning. Bad news for Trump. He's 14 points down. Poll can't be wrong.
Host: 'How did Trump do in your poll in 2016?'
WSJ: 'Well, he was down to Hillary by 12 points.'
The disconnect from reality by "smart" people is amazing. You would think they would have learned a lesson from 2016 but being right is obviously not their objective. Their objective is to demoralize the Trump base. 12 points wasn't enough in 2016 so lets show Trump down 14 at the same time in 2020. That should demoralize enough Trump voters for a Biden win.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:52 am to RidiculousHype
Does anyone trust a poll that surveys 800 people?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:54 am to RidiculousHype
2016
Posted on 10/5/20 at 10:56 am to tide06
quote:
Nate Silver is and has been relying on broken polls.
Run an algorithm on bad data and you get a bad output.
He knows this. He doesn’t care.
Yep. We have a decade of conditioning that the absolute unforgivable sin that must be outed at all cost is racism. At the same time they advocate that Trump is racist and therefore anyone who supports him is racist.
Then turn around and expect to have strangers answer truthfully on the phone to a stranger that they support Trump.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:12 am to narddogg81
quote:
they are being more deliberately skewed now than 2020, if you look at how these pills are being weighted, we are to believe there are something like 15-30% more Democrats across the board. They are disregarding all the lessons from 2016
No they are not. They are lying.
Biden +14? They are not even trying, they are wishcasting.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:16 am to RidiculousHype
Polls are t the same today
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:25 am to gthog61
quote:That poll is of registered voters and suggested that the over 50 crowd moved from +13 for Trump to +1 for Biden. That's how you know it's BS. Plus the IBD_TIPP poll of likely voters has it +3 Biden.
Biden +14? They are not even trying, they are wishcasting
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:38 am to Jake88
The problem with the current polling data is that no one is pointing out that the respondent breakdown by party is significantly different than the actual breakdown from the 2016 & 2018 election.
2016 was 31% Pub, 35% Dem, 34% Other
2018 was 31% Pub, 35% Dem, 33% Other
2016 was 31% Pub, 35% Dem, 34% Other
2018 was 31% Pub, 35% Dem, 33% Other
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:45 am to RidiculousHype
Trump isn’t behind in Iowa and Ohio
Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:36 pm to RidiculousHype
There were some major problems with the polling from 2016 that likely led to the misses.
1. Limited state-level polling, particularly in the states that tipped the election. For example, RCP had roughly 17 polls from August through the election in Wisconsin. There are already over 20 polls with an entire month to go in Wisconsin.
2. Pollsters were largely not weighting by education, and due to nonresponse biases, the groups that tipped the election for Trump in the Midwest (whites without a college education) were underrepresented. So if they had weighted for this underrepresentation, then the polls would have been much closers. Most pollsters have addressed this issue and are weighting by education.
So while it's possible that the polls are still underestimating Trump in those states it missed in 2016, I think the margin will be much lower due to addressing the issues they can address. In fact, I think there a chance they could OVERCORRECT since that's often the inherent response AND the incentives favor estimating closer toward a toss-up.
1. Limited state-level polling, particularly in the states that tipped the election. For example, RCP had roughly 17 polls from August through the election in Wisconsin. There are already over 20 polls with an entire month to go in Wisconsin.
2. Pollsters were largely not weighting by education, and due to nonresponse biases, the groups that tipped the election for Trump in the Midwest (whites without a college education) were underrepresented. So if they had weighted for this underrepresentation, then the polls would have been much closers. Most pollsters have addressed this issue and are weighting by education.
So while it's possible that the polls are still underestimating Trump in those states it missed in 2016, I think the margin will be much lower due to addressing the issues they can address. In fact, I think there a chance they could OVERCORRECT since that's often the inherent response AND the incentives favor estimating closer toward a toss-up.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 3:05 pm to Ssubba
quote:Not so fast, my friend. The popular vote will be MUCH closer according to some polls - and one or two have him winning it.
Don't be naive, Trump will lose the popular vote.
It will be interesting to see if those states who declared their electors will go to the winner of the popular vote still do...
Posted on 10/5/20 at 3:06 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
So while it's possible that the polls are still underestimating Trump in those states it missed in 2016, I think the margin will be much lower due to addressing the issues they can address. In fact, I think there a chance they could OVERCORRECT since that's often the inherent response AND the incentives favor estimating closer toward a toss-up.
You're assuming that these polls are attempting to be accurate as opposed to attempting to influence voters.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:46 pm to Flats
quote:In terms of who they are planning to vote for, I don't see any evidence a legitimate pollster (doesn't mean a good pollster per se), even if they have a partisan leaning, is attempting to influence voters rather than get as accurate of a snapshot of their preferences as possible.
You're assuming that these polls are attempting to be accurate as opposed to attempting to influence voters
Now sometimes the supplemental questions (e.g., how do you feel about this specific issue) might be a little more for political purposes that can be used to influence people for political reasons.
That being said, I don't really know how the result of "who are you planning to vote for," influences voters and if they do influence voters in which direction.
For example, I remember people arguing that they were manipulating the results into a larger margin for Hilary in an attempt to discourage Trump voters. But if they did manipulate it, then they probably ended up discouraging Hillary voters if anything (e.g., don't have to vote for Hillary since she's going to win).
In addition, I bought into the "unskewing" of the polls in 2012 and JoshChamberlin's (as a lurker) posts about Romney leading. Not only was that wrong, the polls actually underestimated Obama's margin. And I wonder if that actually caused them to overcompensated in 2016, which is why the overestimated Hillary's margin.
Finally, if it comes to manipulating the polls, I don't think it's the pollsters themselves that are the likely culprits. For example, OAN apparently paid for a bunch of polls with legitimate pollsters; HOWEVER, they only released the ones that were favorable to Trump and withheld the ones that weren't. So the results were not invalid, but they were lying by omission. That being said, I think OAN is an exception because even highly partisan sites like Breitbart appears to honestly release the results of the polls they pay for.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 4:51 pm
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