re: Are Rispone’s attacks on Abraham losing the Governor's race for LA GOP in the primary?

Here's the real problem. Louisiana Republicans are socially conservative and then fiscally, give me mine. So, as long as JBE doesn't ruin the social issues, he's winning easily.

Louisiana Republicans don't actually hate his, or liberal fiscal policies. And because of that, he's gonna win again.

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I just have a hard time seeing where one "attack" ad would have an impact that drives "conservative voters" to JBE.

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Here is the scenario:

JBE is on the precipice of winning in the general election.
Voters have a limited attention span
Efforts and resources that should be directed at JBE are instead directed at another republican.

The result is no traction is gained against JBE and he wins outright.

That should very much scare Republicans.

And I have stated repeatedly that it's OK for Rispone to differentiate himself. For example he is the only one strongly calling for a constitutional convention. His "I just enjoy watching politicians fight" was great.

The cut and paste Gumbo PAC attacks only end up helping JBE.

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The cut and paste Gumbo PAC attacks only end up helping JBE.

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I have noticed that Rispone supporters aren't even bothering to agree with the substance of those attacks on Abraham.

They know it's bullshite, just only care if it helps Rispone.

It's disheartening to see Rispone endorse JBE's narrative against a fellow conservative.

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I have noticed that Rispone supporters aren't even bothering to agree with the substance of those attacks on Abraham.

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Then you haven’t been listening, at least not to my post. I have said that while I may not agree with the use or timing of the ad, I do agree with what the ads are saying. Maybe not the 300 vote thing. While that is accurate, I don’t see it as “bad”.

I do see the not telling people he will take his salary while running for re-election as a shady act that shows a lack of integrity. I think telling people you can’t afford it when you are worth $12+mm is an excuse he wouldn’t need if he had run telling them he was now taking the salary. I think buying the plane has bad optics when saying I lied to you because things changed and I need to take the salary. I think moving the ownership of the companies to your wife’s name so you can keep the income on a technicality but then using the “can’t afford it anymore because of Congress” excuse shows a lack or either character or respect for the intelligence of your constituents.

Would I have still voted for him in the run off? Yeah and I still will. Would I have voted for him in the primary? Maybe, probably not after that debate performance. Will I be motivated to get out for the runoff if he is in it? Hard to say, that depends on how “fair” I feel the primary was and if he was being “protected” by the establishment like conservative media and LAGOP.

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1. Rispone is trying to be like Trump. This is a total Trump tactic. How many GOP candidates did Trump attack and call names during the primary? All of them. These attack ads should him to the base he thinks he’s trying to appeal to.

Rispone isn’t running against JBE. He’s running against JBE and Abraham. If the election is today, he wouldn’t make a runoff. He needs to get ahead of Abraham and this is what he thinks will do it. He’s been a distant third and hasn’t gained ground so he has to do something. He’s not worried about the GOP, he’s worried about his campaign.

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1. Trump only won 44% of the votes in the republican primaries. Trump also had 6 months from the last primary in May to the general election to mend the fences. He was not able to mend the fences with Jeb and Kasich supporters. Rispone only has one month to mend the fences with Abraham's supporters. I am not saying that it cannot be done but if will be an awfully tall challenge.

2. Trump's name calling and other tactics ended up causing 8% of republicans and 16% of "conservatives" to vote for HRC.

3. Unlike Trump, Rispone is not charismatic and does not understand politics. Trump would have lost the election if the election was set up like the La governor's election is because there is no electoral college in this race. No candidate can afford to have 8-16% of its party vote for the other party, just ask David Vitter.

4. Of course every candidate should try to win, but when the margins are this close they have to be careful about the strategy they choose. A second term for JBE means that Louisiana is f**ked and that is why it is so important to not let him get re-elected. Going negative against your opponent whose votes you will need in the next round especially when you have to misrepresent the facts in order to do is going to make those voters stay home or vote for JBE.

5. He is either a shitty politician that does not understand why the Trump strategy will not work in this election, or he cares more about getting into the runoff than he does about Louisiana. Either way he is the wrong person for the job.

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Louisiana republicans just don't become democrats like that. It just doesn't happen.

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I guess you forgot how we got JBE?

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This morning, John Couvillon released a survey of 550 registered voters that shows a dramatic shift in the race for Governor. The survey was conducted from September 19th to 21st of a population “registered to vote in the state of Louisiana.”


Complete junk.

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It is a state governor's election poll. They are all going to be small sample sizes. What makes it complete junk is that they modeled it after the 2015 election and it has a MOE of 4.2%. With that large of an MOE Rispone could very easily still be behind Abraham. However, it is the only quantitative insight into the race since the debate so what else are going to use to discuss?

Honestly, at this point, I'm coming around to the idea that Abraham is the candidate that is best suited to take on JBE considering that Rispone would have to mend the fences with Abraham voters in addition to taking on JBE and a month is not enough time to pull off that delicate balancing act.

Not there yet for Abraham myself but that's a very strong argument.

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Honestly, at this point, I'm coming around to the idea that Abraham is the candidate that is best suited to take on JBE considering that Rispone would have to mend the fences with Abraham voters in addition to taking on JBE and a month is not enough time to pull off that delicate balancing act.

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If lying half-truth rispone had pulled his stunt before I mailed in my absentee ballot then I don’t know if I would have voted for him.

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Rispone has the best chance imo but he’s going to have to start going after JBE rather than Abraham

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You have this backward. Rispone is going to hand the election to JBE in the primary, whereas Abraham could have easily defeated JBE in the general.