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re: 538: Biden has a 90% chance of winning
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:22 am to Adam Banks
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:22 am to Adam Banks
PS - IOWA +7
I just searched from the link provided. I cant see where he included the des moines register poll.
I wasn't saying that Silver did include the poll. My point was, and is, that the Iowa poll has significant meaning that certainly runs contrary to any prediction that Biden has a 90% chance of winning the election.
I just searched from the link provided. I cant see where he included the des moines register poll.
I wasn't saying that Silver did include the poll. My point was, and is, that the Iowa poll has significant meaning that certainly runs contrary to any prediction that Biden has a 90% chance of winning the election.
2
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:25 am to OMLandshark
Looks like Biden has the Addams family, except for Gomez. He's MAGA as hell.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:26 am to Jax Teller
quote:
So 538 is basically just an algorithmic orgy of the already incorrect and bull shite polls. So it’s like extra layers of detail on the dumb.
Garbage in, garbage out
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:28 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
by Teddy Ruxpin
It would be weird to watch someone pulling Obama crowds lose but that's what they are selling.
Obama pulled a few legit crowds, as did crazy Bernie but they are dwarfed by MAGA crowds, parades and spontaneous convoys. We have never seen a movement as authentic, enthusiastic and enormous as MAGA.
It's going to save America for another generation
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:29 am to Jax Teller
quote:
So 538 is basically just an algorithmic orgy of the already incorrect and bullshite polls. So it’s like extra layers of detail on the dumb.
538 is like RCP's know it all little brother
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:30 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Axios
@axios
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver: "Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog."
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:40 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
This is literally groundhog day.
No, it's literally not groundhog day.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:55 am to OMLandshark
Haha! Made ya look! Thanks for the clicks!
—your pal, Nate Silver
—your pal, Nate Silver
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 9:56 am
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:07 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
It would be weird to watch someone pulling Obama crowds lose but that's what they are selling.
Obama never pulled the crowds Trump is pulling. He pulled 57,000 to Butler, PA yesterday in his 3rd stop of the day in PA. This is going to be a landslide.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:09 am to KCT
quote:
I wasn't saying that Silver did include the poll. My point was, and is, that the Iowa poll has significant meaning that certainly runs contrary to any prediction that Biden has a 90% chance of winning the election.
Oh I know. I was just furthering the point of the dude is an idiot sticking his head in the sand. He does the same with Trafalgar.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:12 am to Adam Banks
Yashar Ali (who I think is a pretty good journalist) has just come out and said Biden doesn’t stand a chance in hell of getting Florida and should just pull out of it.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:17 am to OMLandshark
We all know 538 is full of shite. The question is, after this election, and Nate fails spectacularly AGAIN, who will continue to follow his bullshite? At this point, the homeless guy on the corner, who smells like piss, has more credibility.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:20 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
Do they still have Biden winning FL, TX, GA, and NC?
538’s model has never had Texas going blue. I agree that they’re probably wrong on the other southern states going to Biden.
I think Trump does better in the south than many expect, but loses Michigan and Wisconsin. Whole thing comes down to PA.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:21 am to OMLandshark
quote:
538
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:22 am to ValDawgsta
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:50 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:23 am to ValDawgsta
quote:
538’s model has never had Texas going blue. I agree that they’re probably wrong on the other southern states going to Biden.
Ask yourself why though? If he trusts the polls then Biden is up there. And if the polls are that wrong in Texas then why aren’t wrong in North Carolina Georgia Michigan Minnesota Pennsylvania Wisconsin etc
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:28 am to Scruffy
quote:The absolute hatred for their governor, cannot be underestimated. Trump is there right now doing a rally. I fully expect him to go after her in his speech.
I feel way stronger about MI than I do any other rust belt state.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:30 am to greygoose
quote:
The absolute hatred for their governor, cannot be underestimated.
A poll in Michigan said that about 60 percent of their citizens approved of her, so you might be buying into the Republican hype a little bit there.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:33 am to UAinSOUTHAL
1) the point was Obama drew huge crowds and won comfortably. Trump is drawing huge crowds and supposedly getting stomped in key states. It doesn't seem to jive at all.
2) Obama absolutely did draw huge crowds that you can look up yourself, but that wasn't the full point of the observation.
Supposedly got 100k at one rally in Colorado 9 days out. 150k over two.
2) Obama absolutely did draw huge crowds that you can look up yourself, but that wasn't the full point of the observation.
Supposedly got 100k at one rally in Colorado 9 days out. 150k over two.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 10:37 am
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:38 am to KCT
It's in the 538 model but under the polling company name, Selzer.
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