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re: 538: Biden has a 90% chance of winning
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:42 am to greygoose
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:42 am to greygoose
quote:
The question is, after this election, and Nate fails spectacularly AGAIN, who will continue to follow his bullshite
You have posters in this thread sucking him off and defending him.
0
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:44 am to OMLandshark
i want every one of these idiots on CNN/MSNBC/DNC channel forced to sit there in front of the camera crying as trump gets 320+ and possibly 390 when all the votes are in
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:44 am to Scruffy
quote:
fricking hope we are all right.
Seriously this.
Appreciate the enthusiasm but admittedly some of the polling numbers are making me nervous
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:30 am to Adam Banks
quote:
just searched from the link provided. I cant see where he included the des moines register poll.
Nate doesn’t include polls that are good for trump
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:38 am to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
A poll in Michigan
Yep, those polls are great are accurate. One of the reasons Trump will take MI, has a lot to do with the current governor there.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:40 am to OMLandshark
Biden is only winning by the most corrupt and fraudulent ballot manufacturing that would make any third world dictator stand and applaud....
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:41 am to OMLandshark
We’ve seen this movie before.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:43 am to Bunyan
Trump won Ohio by EIGHT points.
Trump won Iowa by TEN points.
Trump won North Carolina by FOUR points.
That map doesn't even have Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as light blue.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:44 am to Eat Your Crow
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:47 pm
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:47 am to OMLandshark
I don't even feel bad for that loser, at this point.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:47 am to Scruffy
I was going to include Arizona, but it was only 3.5 points, and that map at least has Arizona as a toss-up. It's barely blue so it was probably only barely above 50% for Hillary.
Trump will win Arizona by more this time than he did last time.
Trump will win Arizona by more this time than he did last time.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:49 am to OMLandshark
Nate Bronze is going crazy. His model has Biden winning Georgia and Florida with pretty strong odds. The RCP polling average for Florida is Biden +.7 and Georgia is +.8, yet ole Nate has Biden 64% fave. Feels like he goes out of his way to discredit any positive Trump polling.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:52 am to MusclesofBrussels
quote:
Nate Bronze is going crazy. His model has Biden winning Georgia and Florida with pretty strong odds. The RCP polling average for Florida is Biden +.7 and Georgia is +.8, yet ole Nate has Biden 64% fave. Feels like he goes out of his way to discredit any positive Trump polling.
Florida was 66% for Biden when I looked a couple of days ago.
Like people keep saying, if you turn Texas and Florida red, Trump goes from like a 11% chance of winning all the way up to >40% chance of winning.
And if you look at the early voting numbers in those two states, there's a realistic possibility that Trump is going to win Texas by 10 and Florida by 5.
You would think these polls would find a way to account for actual early voting data that is publicly available.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 12:00 pm to OMLandshark
538 was the arsenal of choice for the retarded-prog-filth in 2016.
LINK
71% Clinton assured on election night.
Nate Silver is a loon.
LINK
71% Clinton assured on election night.
Nate Silver is a loon.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 12:00 pm to Scruffy
quote:
I feel way stronger about MI than I do any other rust belt state
Why? 2016 Trump won because of low turnout by 11k votes. In 2018 The race for senator and governor return to normal with 300k and 400k wins for the Dems.
Honestly the polls helped Trump win. The over confidence of Hillary and lots of people thinking he had no chance made them stay home. Record turnout does not bode well.
The country is overwhelmingly blue. There is reason that Republicans try to suppress votes. The more votes equal a land slide by the blue team.
Trump will win FL and NC, but he will be swept in the MN,PN, MI AND WI. The GA vote will also be closer than many are expecting. Less than 1%.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 12:05 pm to BhamDore
quote:
The GA vote will also be closer than many are expecting. Less than 1%.
Disagree here.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 12:20 pm to Eat Your Crow
Turnout favors dems. Joe isn't Hilary. She was literally the only candidate that he was capable of beating. People voted 3rd party or didn't turnout for her.
Joe doesn't have any enthusiasm behind him, but he doesn't have garner near the same disdain that Hilary did.
This is more likely to be a blowout than a repeat of 2016.
Trump exhaustion is real. Lots of people are just ready to move on .
Joe doesn't have any enthusiasm behind him, but he doesn't have garner near the same disdain that Hilary did.
This is more likely to be a blowout than a repeat of 2016.
Trump exhaustion is real. Lots of people are just ready to move on .
Posted on 11/1/20 at 12:32 pm to BhamDore
quote:
Trump exhaustion is real. Lots of people are just ready to move on .
Where are you seeing this? Can you back this up with any type of data?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 12:35 pm to OMLandshark
Biden is a lock.
For what, I don't know.
For what, I don't know.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 12:36 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
quote:
Butler, PA
My hometown. That was glorious yesterday.
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