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Started By
Message
re: 32% unemployment rate on its way
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:32 am to uway
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:32 am to uway
quote:
You have a big garden? Livestock?
I was talking about in the 1930s if you will follow the context.
But, yes, I plant a large garden every year at the end of one of the center pivots on my family’s farm.
I don’t have to eat meat to survive but I can shoot deer and hogs out of fields and catch fish in the river or ponds if I wanted any.
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 8:35 am
0
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:38 am to SammyTiger
32% unemployment is not a reflection of the actual state of the economy. It is an artificially induced number.
By the end of June we will likely be back below 10%.
By the end of June we will likely be back below 10%.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:43 am to KiwiHead
I didn’t realize a majority of business debt in this country was BBB rated and below. Man that kind of system absolutely can not withstand a shutdown without a collapse. I’m pretty nervous about our economy.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:44 am to KiwiHead
No big deal, just borrow couple more trillion.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:49 am to BigPerm30
quote:
But man think about Aunt Dorthy who’s 83, is morbidly obese, has asthma and smokes two packs a day. Is your job more important than her life?
Why not both! She can self quarantine.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:54 am to KiwiHead
quote:
32% unemployment rate on its way
Not really sure why this is being touted as NEWS! worthy.
People being told to stay home and businesses to shutdown = UNEMPLOYMENT
But anything they can do to stir up emotions, right?
This post was edited on 3/31/20 at 8:55 am
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:57 am to KiwiHead
quote:
Yesterday Kohl's and Macy's essentially laid off/furloughed over 130,00 workers.
Kohls 80k
Macy's 130k
GAP 120k
310k people hit the unemployment totals in the span of an hour yesterday afternoon.
Belk 20k last week
Dillads 40k later this week
Nordstrom already furloughed corporate staff for 6 weeks, they have 350 stores that are closed and will get furloughed probably later this week too.
Movie theaters, bookstores, clothing stores, dept stores, the idea that these "stay at home" orders have loopholes to make every business "essential" is entirely false.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:00 am to cokebottleag
quote:
Highest rate of unemployment in the great depression was 25%.
But don't mind me, all the idiots on this board are convinced we'll be back to normal by summer. A year, tops.
Considering we artificially caused this and shutdown and we are telling people who can work that they can't, we could open back up tomorrow hypothetical, no?
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:01 am to Muthsera
The sky is not falling. I bet it doesn’t hit 32 and wherever it hits it will drop like a stone.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:01 am to KiwiHead
It’s not all doom and gloom From Goldman Sachs:
quote:
Goldman Sachs is still predicting a "V-shape" recovery, however, meaning the steep drop-off will lead to a bigger bounce of 19 percent in the third quarter.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:04 am to KiwiHead
That rate or even one a bit higher is possible. But unlike the depression of the 1930's the problem is exogenous not structural. Once an effective and widely available vaccine becomes widely used, the economy will pretty much return to normal.
It took ramping up of military production from 1939 onward to get the USA out of the depression.
It took ramping up of military production from 1939 onward to get the USA out of the depression.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:05 am to KiwiHead
that sounds crazy obviously, but if we're anywhere above 15% its going to be a rough world to live in
its starting to make me sick to my stomach
its starting to make me sick to my stomach
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:06 am to Keltic Tiger
quote:
Sen..Lindsey Graham on FOX just said he's hearing it mite tale 6-8 weeks to get the Fed. unemployment checks in your hand.
And this folks is why I own guns.
It took less than 72 hrs for New Orleans to descend into anarchy with the loss of basic services after Katrina. Let it be 6-8 weeks where people are waiting on checks with no relief in sight.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:06 am to BigAppleBucky
quote:
Once an effective and widely available vaccine becomes widely used, the economy will pretty much return to normal.
What do you base this on?
It's not like a vaccine is going to make all the money these businesses DIDN'T make suddenly materialize
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:09 am to Codythetiger
quote:
Considering we artificially caused this and shutdown and we are telling people who can work that they can't, we could open back up tomorrow hypothetical, no?
Pretend you're a small business. Did your lease get forgiven while you weren't earning money?
Are you going to pay your 10 employees for the 6 weeks they didn't work. If yes, great. Where'd that money come from? If no, great. That means those 10 employees have 6 weeks less income to spend that would have normally been spent.
The chain reaction of 6-8 weeks of no income/cash flow isn't a "turn it back on" kinda thing
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:12 am to ShortyRob
quote:
It's not like a vaccine is going to make all the money these businesses DIDN'T make suddenly materialize
I think the argument is alot of the money will be made back up in the 3rd and 4th quarters based on pent up demand. I have seen some crazy Q4 predictions.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:13 am to ShortyRob
Folks, the sooner you realize that about 1/4 of the country will have been let go or sent home until things are back up and running, the less of a sticker shock it will be to you when the numbers keep rolling in.
Restaurants, hotels, and the like employ a lot of people.
Your essentials and the like will be fine.
It's going to take a while for several million to get back to work but this isn't due to fundamental issues in the economy, it's a very bad virus with lethal ability to those with health issues.
You either let the virus run its course and kill 2 to 3 million people in our country or shut it down like we did.
Restaurants, hotels, and the like employ a lot of people.
Your essentials and the like will be fine.
It's going to take a while for several million to get back to work but this isn't due to fundamental issues in the economy, it's a very bad virus with lethal ability to those with health issues.
You either let the virus run its course and kill 2 to 3 million people in our country or shut it down like we did.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:13 am to KiwiHead
quote:
32% unemployment rate
Care to place a small wager on that?
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:14 am to KiwiHead
quote:
Yesterday Kohl's and Macy's essentially laid off/furloughed over 130,00 workers.
Both of these chains (along with Sears and JCPenney) have been in trouble for a while. Online shopping is the trend.
Apparently Kohl's "deal with the devil" (their partnership with Amazon) isn't paying off like they had hoped.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 9:14 am to KiwiHead
I wrote my congressman about this. We need to reopen the economy and let the chips fall where they may. A long term shutdown would have a much worse long term effect on this country than the Wuhan virus.
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