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Started By
Message
re: -0.3% 1st Quarter GDP
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:26 am to GumboPot
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:26 am to GumboPot
quote:
Atlanta Fed GDPNow was predicting a negative 2,3.
The New York Fed Nowcast was predicting a positive 2.
Both missed badly.
Can we actually count on those numbers these days?
I always enjoyed the rosy picture they painted each quarter while Biden was president, then waiting for the quiet multi-point downward revision a couple months later.
1
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:26 am to CAD703X
CNN piling on.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:27 am to jrodLSUke
imo trump can do whatever the frick he wants for his first 365 days in office and i'm more than happy to accept the swings in the interim because unlike the Biden cartel, he's pruning and shaping the tree and even if i don't agree with everything he's doing, i think the economy is going to be going gangbusters by the end of 2025.
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 8:28 am
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:27 am to Bunk Moreland
This playbook was so obvious. To dump a recession on Orange 
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:28 am to RolltidePA
quote:
Can we actually count on those numbers these days?
no
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:32 am to SDVTiger
The number will be adjusted higher in the coming weeks. Trump always gets the initial bad numbers to make headlines and then the agencies adjust higher. They did the opposite for Biden.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:34 am to SDVTiger
quote:
This playbook was so obvious. To dump a recession on Orange
Cutting government spending can reduce GDP but not sure enough was cut to sink the whole economy -0.3%. Tariffs are the obvious culprit.
I’d rather go into a recession than the Fed cut the rates and release a bunch of liquidity that causes more inflation.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:36 am to TigersHuskers
100 days and prices are still high. Republicans control both houses but all they've accomplished so far is departing a few hundred illegals per month. DOGE barely saved any money and zero arrests for all the fraud they've found.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:39 am to onepiecemayne
If we adhered to libertarian principles like Javier Milei in Argentina, we wouldn’t be in this predicament.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:41 am to TigersHuskers
I mean we are already in a recession. We have been. Major changes for long term security of our way of life might require a recession.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:42 am to TigersHuskers
I seem to recall a lot of discussion when Biden was President that 2 quarters of negative growth actually doesn't mean recession.
Notwithstanding this is only one, apparently, it's (D)ifferent now.
Notwithstanding this is only one, apparently, it's (D)ifferent now.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:45 am to Azkiger
quote:
Now that Biden is out were back to the two consecutive quarter definition, huh?
Quite amazing huh?
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:48 am to TigersHuskers
quote:
imminent by July
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:48 am to TigersHuskers
It’s never the orange man’s fault. I don’t know how some of you do it.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:50 am to TigersHuskers
It is good. That's exactly what I was hoping for. Get inflation stamped out. Let the tariff situation work out, the towards the end of the year, stimulate and boom.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:52 am to TigersHuskers
quote:
Yup. He's doing this to hurt trump. He had no problem cutting last year to help his Democrat buddies.
I don't know why Powell is doing what he is, but he was appointed by Trump and Powell is a Republican (I know...so is Liz Cheney).
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 8:53 am
Posted on 4/30/25 at 8:58 am to TigersHuskers
What did you expect? They turned the money printing machine off.
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:07 am to Man4others
quote:
The Fed is 100 Bps too high
Nope. GDP dropped 2x expectations (.3 expected, -.3 actual) but PCE is holding at 0. Cutting a full point right now would drive inflation up, creating stagflation as job cuts increase. Inflation has to start moving downward by at least .3-.4 per month before JPow can drop rates without reigniting inflation.
As always, blame Congress for this shitstorm. Making GDP growth completely dependent on federal debt growth for nearly 20 years isn't a great idea (it's really just MMT with some speed bumps).
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:07 am to skullhawk
It is actually a case of lower expectations
I don't know how you terminate the substantial number of jobs in the federal government that are worthless and just giving away money and cut off USAID and don't anticipate grow to be stagnant
I look at it is a very good sign we are balancing out our government and actually need more cuts
I don't know how you terminate the substantial number of jobs in the federal government that are worthless and just giving away money and cut off USAID and don't anticipate grow to be stagnant
I look at it is a very good sign we are balancing out our government and actually need more cuts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:15 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
CNN piling on.
Well, all dozen of their viewers can watch it
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