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Message

re: -0.3% 1st Quarter GDP

Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:16 am to
Posted by Ten Bears
Florida
Member since Oct 2018
5021 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:16 am to
quote:

Nope. GDP dropped 2x expectations (.3 expected, -.3 actual) but PCE is holding at 0. Cutting a full point right now would drive inflation up, creating stagflation as job cuts increase. Inflation has to start moving downward by at least .3-.4 per month before JPow can drop rates without reigniting inflation.


There is a slew of really bad economic data out there that may force Powell’s hand sooner than he would like.

I think theGDP report and jobs report of only 62k jobs are telling because they really do not account for the majority of Trump’s tariffs. They are just the economy’s reaction to the uncertainty. Second quarter numbers should be really bad as well.
Posted by mwade91383
Washington DC
Member since Mar 2010
7847 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:17 am to
quote:


muh egggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggs

stock market is heading to zeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeero

tariffs baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad

omg i hate trump now!!!!


The funniest par of this rantt is you'd legitimatley screaming your head off if any of this happened under a Dem POTUS.
Posted by PureBlood
The Motherland
Member since Oct 2021
5021 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:17 am to
quote:

Not good. Recession imminent by July.



Recession has been imminent for the past 5 years. You cant have massive shutdown, followed by 4 years of printing money, and not have repercussions for it.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
97721 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:18 am to
quote:

I’d rather go into a recession than the Fed cut the rates and release a bunch of liquidity that causes more inflation.


This talking point is dumb since they cut 1bps inflation has gone down bigly and thats with bullshite #s

Another 1bps cut has us at 3.25 not 0

Posted by jmarto1
Houma, LA/ Las Vegas, NV
Member since Mar 2008
38671 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:19 am to
quote:

Recession has been imminent for the past 5 years. You cant have massive shutdown, followed by 4 years of printing money, and not have repercussions for it.


Thank god someone gets this
Posted by Ozarkshillbilly
Missouri Ozarks
Member since Apr 2025
535 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:21 am to
Only 1,361 more days of these predictions, and only 1,055 days until we hear that the next republican presidential candidate is "literally worse than Trump or Hitler"

The propaganda doesn't work on normal folks anymore....
Posted by Bunkie7672
Member since Mar 2020
1306 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:21 am to
Easy fix, more tariffs.
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
12019 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:28 am to
quote:

Yup. He's doing this to hurt trump. He had no problem cutting last year to help his Democrat buddies.


You realize the more Trump whines and complains the less likely it is Powell (who Trump appointed) is to cut rates? Trump just can't help himself he appoints these people then whines and cries when they don't treat him like a King. How many times has this happened over his two terms? Could it possibly be that the problem isn't Powell but Trump himself for continually appointing these people?
Posted by Bigdawgb
Member since Oct 2023
4102 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:31 am to
quote:

Only 1,361 more days of these predictions, and only 1,055 days until we hear that the next republican presidential candidate is "literally worse than Trump or Hitler"

The propaganda doesn't work on normal folks anymore....


Imo it's wonderful news that the GDP only contracted 0.3% after 3 months of "literally Hitler," chicken little tariff screaming, and "a total idiot running off our trade partners"
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
97721 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:31 am to
quote:

You realize the more Trump whines and complains the less likely it is Powell (who Trump appointed) is to cut rates?


You idiots on the money board claimed hes not playong politics now this

Posted by j1897
Member since Nov 2011
4589 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:32 am to
quote:

Get trade deals done


Why, we have no leverage. China is laughing.


Midterms are gonna be brutal, Trump will get impeached 2027.
Posted by Seldom Seen
Member since Feb 2016
48737 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:33 am to


Posted by Lynxrufus2012
Central Kentucky
Member since Mar 2020
19779 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:36 am to
The surge in imports from retailers stocking up in advance of tariffs knocked it down. These were subtracted from GDP. Actual domestic growth was up.

Look into the numbers before reacting. Next quarter will be fine. If there are few imports GDP may be way up.

Of course the media wants this reaction.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
68114 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:37 am to
Wait until the tariffs kick in.

We had to break things in order to rebuild them.
Posted by Seldom Seen
Member since Feb 2016
48737 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:37 am to
Real GDP down.

Consumption down.

Prices up.


Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
97721 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:37 am to
quote:

Midterms are gonna be brutal, Trump will get impeached 2027.


Oh noz the do nothing Rs will lose the house. Oh noz Trump migjt not get reelected!!
Posted by TerryDawg03
The Deep South
Member since Dec 2012
17941 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:40 am to
quote:

Not good. Recession imminent by July.


Keep in mind that the contracting GDP is only a rule of thumb; it’s not what actually defines a recession. Not to mention that out of control government spending is going to be reined in (hopefully), which could certainly shrink GDP if not offset with growth from consumer spending, business investment and net exports (not likely at this point).

There will have to be short term pain to get through this adjustment. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.

It’s not popular to be the one who says we have to cut back. No one likes hearing from their doc that they need to cut back and lose 25lbs. This is what it’s going to take for the U.S. to avoid the fiscal equivalent of diabetes.
This post was edited on 4/30/25 at 9:41 am
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
97721 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:40 am to
Are you upset that your Jordans cost $2 more now?
Posted by CAD703X
Liberty Island
Member since Jul 2008
93153 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:42 am to
quote:

The funniest par of this rantt is you'd legitimatley screaming your head off if any of this happened under a Dem POTUS.
because the last president was completely incompetent, passed EOs out of spite, destroyed a working economy and a room full of 20 something usaid rejects were working the auto-pen.

so yes i guess you're right. i would be screaming my head off but all that was A-OK with you because....Dems.
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
12019 posts
Posted on 4/30/25 at 9:48 am to
quote:

president was completely incompetent, passed EOs out of spite, destroyed a working economy


Sounds like Trump

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