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re: Which button would you press?
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:17 pm to JOHNN
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:17 pm to JOHNN
Good lord y'all people sucj at statistics.
The expected value of the green button is 50 million. So statistically, you should press that one on the basis it has a higher expected return.
It ignores rationale and emotion.
That said, I'd sell my opportunity to press the button to someone for $50,000,000.
The expected value of the green button is 50 million. So statistically, you should press that one on the basis it has a higher expected return.
It ignores rationale and emotion.
That said, I'd sell my opportunity to press the button to someone for $50,000,000.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:25 pm to southernelite
quote:
That said, I'd sell my opportunity to press the button to someone for $50,000,000.
they would be stupid not to take it. but why would you give up half and not just press it yourself?
I am sticking with 1 million for sure
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:34 pm to TechDawg2007
Red.. Go with the guarantee.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:39 pm to TechDawg2007
Is this some sick joke? They both look grey to me.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:40 pm to OweO
ok i have found a solution. you and 10 of your closest friends all hit green. somebody is bound to hit.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:44 pm to Hook Em Horns
Easy choice for me. Red! But I'm old. 
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:04 pm to TechDawg2007
If my financial situation is already okay, I'll take a chance. If a million can get me out of a jam, I'll take the upfront money.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:06 pm to JOHNN
Idk but I'm gonna hit the black button at Lauberge tonite
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:26 pm to Emiliooo
quote:
100% * 1,000,000 = 1,000,000 50% * 100,000,000 = 50,000,000 50,000,000 > 1,000,000 Select green.
Any one who graduated from college would understand this... particularly if from business or engineering school.
Green button is the answer and it isn't even close.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:36 pm to SaulGoodman
um, obviously it is. im pressing red while you get the price is right fail horn.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:39 pm to Hook Em Horns
A harder decision is 100% chance at 10 mil or 50% chance at 100 mil.
You retiring with 1 mil? I'm not, therefore it's not changing my life much.
You retiring with 1 mil? I'm not, therefore it's not changing my life much.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:01 pm to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
they would be stupid not to take it. but why would you give up half and not just press it yourself?
I am sticking with 1 million for sure
You would take a guaranteed $1m, but don't understand why someone would take a guaranteed $50m?
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:37 pm to Downtown Devin Brown
quote:
I took all emotion out of it. That's why I would choose green. Bc the estimated value of pushing green is $50mil while estimated value of red is only $1mil
While I get the estimated vale of the button, there is no actual guaranteed money though. You have a 50% chance of making 100 million but you also have a 50% chance of making and/or hearing zilch, nada, no soup fo you, thanks for playing, cue the game show trumpet/trombone "you lost" music" ahhh you get the picture by now. You push that button and you are only getting 100 million or nothing at all.
There is no button worth 50 million unless you figure out a way to rig the system and only push the button down half way...
This is why I brought up emotion. You only get one chance to press the button. Do you want 1 million right now.... or do you want the possibility of getting nothing or 100 million?
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:41 pm to Downtown Devin Brown
quote:That's fine and dandy if you have unlimited picks.
took all emotion out of it. That's why I would choose green. Bc the estimated value of pushing green is $50mil while estimated value of red is only $1mil
Then you can bring the ev into this. But a one time thing like this, it comes down to your financial situation currently.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:48 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:
$1MM isn't life changing. $100MM is.
I guess that really depends on where you are currently in your life.
I'm 40 years old and I've been building a retirement for myself as well as a college fund for my son. If I had a million dollars, I'd use that to pay off my debts and bolster my child's college fund thus more of my income would go to savings and less of my eventual retirement would go to mortgage and possible debt.
It's not flashy, but it's certainly life changing.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:56 pm to TechDawg2007
Green.
If it hits then you're well off.
If it doesn't, you're no worse off.
If it hits then you're well off.
If it doesn't, you're no worse off.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 8:34 pm to Tempratt
quote:
Green.
If it hits then you're well off.
If it doesn't, you're no worse off.
But what if you look at it this way...
Since the million is guaranteed -- it's yours. You are essentially giving that up or away for the 50% chance of $100 mil. So basically if you choose green and get nothing, you've lost $1 million.
Now if it was something like:
Red button is a 99% at $1 million
Green button is 50% at $100 million
I pick green every time because the lower value isn't guaranteed even though odds make it almost so. There's still that 1% chance you don't get anything so if there's any risk of nothing, I go with the larger possible payout.
I always pick the sure thing which is why I'll never make millions on the stock market. I don't like risks when it comes to money.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 8:48 pm to TechDawg2007
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/14/20 at 7:27 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 9:01 pm to JOHNN
quote:
While I get the estimated vale of the button, there is no actual guaranteed money though. You have a 50% chance of making 100 million but you also have a 50% chance of making and/or hearing zilch, nada, no soup fo you, thanks for playing, cue the game show trumpet/trombone "you lost" music" ahhh you get the picture by now. You push that button and you are only getting 100 million or nothing at all.
There is no button worth 50 million unless you figure out a way to rig the system and only push the button down half way...
This is why I brought up emotion. You only get one chance to press the button. Do you want 1 million right now.... or do you want the possibility of getting nothing or 100 million?
Wait, so those guys are being serious? I just assumed they were being sarcastic. Please let it be that they were being sarcastic.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 9:24 pm to TechDawg2007
Get everything paid off, or chance nothing hmm....yeah....I think I'm gonna go with red.
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