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re: Which button would you press?

Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:17 pm to
Posted by southernelite
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2009
53568 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:17 pm to
Good lord y'all people sucj at statistics.

The expected value of the green button is 50 million. So statistically, you should press that one on the basis it has a higher expected return.

It ignores rationale and emotion.


That said, I'd sell my opportunity to press the button to someone for $50,000,000.
Posted by Nado Jenkins83
Land of the Free
Member since Nov 2012
66452 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:25 pm to
quote:

That said, I'd sell my opportunity to press the button to someone for $50,000,000.


they would be stupid not to take it. but why would you give up half and not just press it yourself?

I am sticking with 1 million for sure
Posted by OweO
Plaquemine, La
Member since Sep 2009
122522 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:34 pm to
Red.. Go with the guarantee.
Posted by SidewalkDawg
Chair
Member since Nov 2012
10307 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:39 pm to
Is this some sick joke? They both look grey to me.
Posted by Hook Em Horns
350000 posts
Member since Sep 2010
15708 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:40 pm to
ok i have found a solution. you and 10 of your closest friends all hit green. somebody is bound to hit.
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 5:44 pm to
Easy choice for me. Red! But I'm old.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
106010 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:04 pm to
If my financial situation is already okay, I'll take a chance. If a million can get me out of a jam, I'll take the upfront money.
Posted by tigertyler
Bogie's
Member since Sep 2016
851 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:06 pm to
Idk but I'm gonna hit the black button at Lauberge tonite
Posted by SaulGoodman
Albuquerque, NM
Member since Mar 2016
184 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

100% * 1,000,000 = 1,000,000 50% * 100,000,000 = 50,000,000 50,000,000 > 1,000,000 Select green.


Any one who graduated from college would understand this... particularly if from business or engineering school.

Green button is the answer and it isn't even close.
Posted by Hook Em Horns
350000 posts
Member since Sep 2010
15708 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:36 pm to
um, obviously it is. im pressing red while you get the price is right fail horn.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
37463 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 6:39 pm to
A harder decision is 100% chance at 10 mil or 50% chance at 100 mil.

You retiring with 1 mil? I'm not, therefore it's not changing my life much.
Posted by efrad
Member since Nov 2007
18704 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

they would be stupid not to take it. but why would you give up half and not just press it yourself?

I am sticking with 1 million for sure



You would take a guaranteed $1m, but don't understand why someone would take a guaranteed $50m?
Posted by JOHNN
Prairieville
Member since Nov 2008
4513 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

I took all emotion out of it. That's why I would choose green. Bc the estimated value of pushing green is $50mil while estimated value of red is only $1mil



While I get the estimated vale of the button, there is no actual guaranteed money though. You have a 50% chance of making 100 million but you also have a 50% chance of making and/or hearing zilch, nada, no soup fo you, thanks for playing, cue the game show trumpet/trombone "you lost" music" ahhh you get the picture by now. You push that button and you are only getting 100 million or nothing at all.

There is no button worth 50 million unless you figure out a way to rig the system and only push the button down half way...

This is why I brought up emotion. You only get one chance to press the button. Do you want 1 million right now.... or do you want the possibility of getting nothing or 100 million?
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
88325 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

took all emotion out of it. That's why I would choose green. Bc the estimated value of pushing green is $50mil while estimated value of red is only $1mil
That's fine and dandy if you have unlimited picks.
Then you can bring the ev into this. But a one time thing like this, it comes down to your financial situation currently.
Posted by cleeveclever
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
2046 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

$1MM isn't life changing. $100MM is.



I guess that really depends on where you are currently in your life.
I'm 40 years old and I've been building a retirement for myself as well as a college fund for my son. If I had a million dollars, I'd use that to pay off my debts and bolster my child's college fund thus more of my income would go to savings and less of my eventual retirement would go to mortgage and possible debt.

It's not flashy, but it's certainly life changing.
Posted by Tempratt
Member since Oct 2013
15302 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 7:56 pm to
Green.

If it hits then you're well off.
If it doesn't, you're no worse off.
Posted by cleeveclever
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
2046 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 8:34 pm to
quote:

Green.
If it hits then you're well off.
If it doesn't, you're no worse off.


But what if you look at it this way...

Since the million is guaranteed -- it's yours. You are essentially giving that up or away for the 50% chance of $100 mil. So basically if you choose green and get nothing, you've lost $1 million.

Now if it was something like:
Red button is a 99% at $1 million
Green button is 50% at $100 million
I pick green every time because the lower value isn't guaranteed even though odds make it almost so. There's still that 1% chance you don't get anything so if there's any risk of nothing, I go with the larger possible payout.

I always pick the sure thing which is why I'll never make millions on the stock market. I don't like risks when it comes to money.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 8:35 pm
Posted by Ricardo
Member since Sep 2016
6709 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 8:48 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/14/20 at 7:27 pm
Posted by RealityTiger
Geismar, LA
Member since Jan 2010
20543 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

While I get the estimated vale of the button, there is no actual guaranteed money though. You have a 50% chance of making 100 million but you also have a 50% chance of making and/or hearing zilch, nada, no soup fo you, thanks for playing, cue the game show trumpet/trombone "you lost" music" ahhh you get the picture by now. You push that button and you are only getting 100 million or nothing at all.

There is no button worth 50 million unless you figure out a way to rig the system and only push the button down half way...

This is why I brought up emotion. You only get one chance to press the button. Do you want 1 million right now.... or do you want the possibility of getting nothing or 100 million?


Wait, so those guys are being serious? I just assumed they were being sarcastic. Please let it be that they were being sarcastic.
Posted by Reservoir dawg
Member since Oct 2013
15168 posts
Posted on 11/22/16 at 9:24 pm to
Get everything paid off, or chance nothing hmm....yeah....I think I'm gonna go with red.
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