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re: What if Hitler never invaded the Soviet Union

Posted on 5/23/16 at 7:39 am to
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
24460 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 7:39 am to
You had to figure Hitler didn't think the Americans would stay out of the war forever, and we were likely to team up with the Russians.

Hitler had a treaty with the Russians he broke to attack them. So it's just as easy to make the argument he could of attacked them sooner as it is he should of waited. There was never a great time.

Furthermore, just like the US is facing now with the Middle East it's one thing to conquer a foreign land and it's another to hold it long term. I'm not so sure even if Germany didn't attack Russia that all the countries stay in German captivity for 80 years. Just look at how the USSR fell apart.
Posted by uptownsage
New Orleans
Member since Oct 2014
2156 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 8:04 am to
quote:

The Japanese had clashed with Russia on the Mongolian border in 1939 and gotten their asses kicked. They wanted no part of a repeat. Japan had a modern Navy and Air Force, but its Army was stuck in WWI, with almost no armored force. Even after Stalin's purge of the officer corps, the Red Army was more than a match for anything Japan could throw at it.


I would also imagine moving that many troops, supplies, and machinery through the barren areas of eastern Russia(Siberia), would have been a logistical nightmare. It seems the Japanese were more set up for island hopping in conjunction with its Imperial Navy. They probably would have overextended themselves with trying to take that much territory.
Posted by rsbd
banks of the Mississippi
Member since Jan 2007
23471 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 8:25 am to
Soviets would have invaded Germany.
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
24460 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 8:31 am to
The logical sequence for Japan and Germany should of been:
1.) to conquer Britain
2.) both invade Russia, open 2 fronts
3.) deal with the USA

It's easy to use hindsight now, but the reality is Russia and the USA wouldn't of let Germany and Japan do all of that. It would of been too dangerous for us as all of our allies would of been wiped out. Japan bombing Pearl har I was supposed to be a strategic strike, they should of invaded and took over the islands. That would of been a game changer.
Posted by Tiger Ree
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
24563 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 8:43 am to
quote:

Wasn't there an issue of oil fields in Russia that Germany needed to supply their war?


Yes, Germany was reliant upon the United States for their oil supplies. During Blitzkrieg through hydrogenation they were turning coal into synthetic oil but needed much more. That is why they turned towards Russia.

Saw this last night on "Nazi Mega Weapons - Blitzkrieg" that I recorded a while ago. It was interesting that as they went they were capturing and using enemy equipment - specifically tanks. As the enemy equipment broke down they has no parts to repair them.

Here is the show on the PBS website. It should open to the Blitzkrieg video (shows Hitler in ransacked room looking down at something) but if not the selection will be right under the "Hitler's Killer Subs" preview video.

The fuel portion starts around 17:20. Hitler deciding/announcing the march to the west is at 37:25. This portion says that the Nazis were buying fuel from Russia to support Blitzkrieg. Hitler decided to just take the resources they needed instead of having to buy them.

https://www.pbs.org/program/nazi-megaweapons/
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74579 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 9:52 am to
There has long been speculation that had the Germans not marched east in June 1941, the Soviets would have marched west probably sometime around 1943 once the Red Army had rebuilt and recovered from the purges of the 30's.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
35902 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 10:03 am to
quote:

What if Hitler never invaded the Soviet Union


Stalin was never going to sit idle. If Hitler doesn't attack first, Russia was going to attack them.

It was lose/lose for Hitler. Russia's environment made invasion practically impossible, but Britain and later the US made ignoring the Western front impossible.

Russia probably would have lost MORE against a fully entrenched German army, but Stalin cared less about his people than Hitler did his. He was going to invade regardless.
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
56161 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 10:29 am to
What if Nazi Germany had begun to fully mobilize its economy for a long war back in, say, 1936 or 1937?

In 1941 at the time they invaded Russia, Germany was so short of war material and equipment that they had to use tanks, artillery and vehicles that they captured from France and Czechoslovakia. Surely that captured equipment was not in great shape when the Germans got it. Surely, there would not be enough spare parts to properly maintain this foreign equipment -- there weren't.

So, when did Nazi Germany's economy go on a full war footing? Most would tell you that it happened in 1943. That is largely the correct answer, but, it's also correct to say that Nazi Germany NEVER put its entire economy on a full war-footing. For example, Germany never put its women in the workforce. Use of scarce manpower labor and construction materials for monuments and other unimportant construction projects unrelated to war never ended. Every local Nazi leader had his pet construction project, such as a monument. Hitler never shut that down.

Finally, when was the German railroad system fully mobilized for war? Not until 1942. For example, in late 1941, the German railroad system was about to collapse. It could not provide adequate numbers of locomotives and rolling stock. The problem? The method of production for locomotives had never changed to modern assembly line methods. The Germans were still making locomotives by hand, one by one, by craftsmen.

Albert Speer was able to make some improvements, but he wasn't hired to do so until 1942, which was too late.
This post was edited on 5/23/16 at 10:39 am
Posted by TigerDonk
BR
Member since Dec 2011
1248 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 10:33 am to
quote:

We'd be posting on

du werdest einen krankenschwester brauchen droppings


Post of the week
Posted by biglego
San Francisco
Member since Nov 2007
85515 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 10:35 am to
quote:

In your opinion what would Europe look like today were he not to try and take Moscow?

Probably not overrun with Muslims
Posted by OweO
Plaquemine, La
Member since Sep 2009
122525 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 10:52 am to
This is a bit off topic, but did anyone watch last night's Anthony Bourdain? He was in Georgia (the country) and there is a certain part of the country Russia took over and the people who live in that region (which is rural) say that since 2008 *when Russia took over that certain part), they will wake up any random day and all of a sudden they or their neighbors are all of a sudden in Russia because at night they move this barbwire fence a few meters into Georgia every once in awhile..

Anyway, the only way Hitler would have never invaded the SU was if there were no Hitler.
Posted by MLCLyons
Member since Nov 2012
4793 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 11:35 am to
The war probably would have lasted longer, but a country the size of Germany would never be able to sustain themselves in a war against so many other countries. Especially the US, since they couldn't realistically attack us we eventually would have overwhelmed them with men and materials.
Posted by BamaCoaster
God's Gulf
Member since Apr 2016
7390 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 11:45 am to
Hitler was a madman propagandist, not a military genius.

He made two fatal mistakes:

Terrorizing England and London, rather than strategically bombing them. (Churchill was never going to give up)

And, to this thread, it wasn't the point of going into Russia. Several posters here correctly stated that it was inevitable, and a couple more were right about oil in Russia that the Nazis needed. But, any decent military man or historian would have known that you NEVER, EVER, EVER invade Moscow/Russia in the winter. EVER. He should have listened to his generals and went south to get the oil, rather than march fatally to Moscow. But, Hitler at this point had clearly lost his head. So:
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
66839 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 11:59 am to
Hitler was a military idiot. Not only did he foolishly invade Russia, he sent his men without their winter gear because he thought it would "motivate" them to win quickly. His D-Day tactics were no less stupid.

I think the only way Germany would have won is if Hitler were killed early enough for his many blunders to have never been committed.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96240 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

There has long been speculation that had the Germans not marched east in June 1941, the Soviets would have marched west probably sometime around 1943 once the Red Army had rebuilt and recovered from the purges of the 30's.


From the mid-1930s through the end of 1941, the Red Army was in the process of standing up 10 (yes TEN!) airborne divisions. Not all were operational when Barbarossa was launched and these types of troops, while outstanding, were relatively useless for defense, mostly converted to Guards Rifle regiments,fought as straight leg infantry in the desperate battles of 1941 and 1942, and essentially wasted.

But do you suppose Stalin wanted 10 Airborne divisions for parades?
This post was edited on 5/23/16 at 12:05 pm
Posted by Cooter Davenport
Austin, TX
Member since Apr 2012
9006 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 12:09 pm to
Hitler among everyone else didn't realize the extent to which Russia had sucessfully crash industrialized, particularly when it came to armaments. He saw what purges in military leadership had wrought in Finland (disaster) and combined that with what he believed to be Russia's complete technological and industrial backwardness and thought he'd conpletely steam-roll them. But Russia had more war material than anyone knew, and Hitler made Stalingrad a point of personal obsession instead of byoassing it and going on to the oil fields. Yes libenstram was the long-term goal but in the immediate tactical sense the real goal was the oil fields, of which Germany had zero. Hitler was compelled to invade Russia - both from the point of view of needing land and crops for the future Reich but also the very real immediate need for oil. Most contenporary historians believe that the two would have come to blows regardless and that Stalin would have eventually been the aggressor had Hitler not. Hitler just basically decided to do it on his terms. Not altogether a bad idea, he just executed poorly by getting a late start and becoming obsessed with taking Stalingrad, which had no strategic importance.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74579 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

From the mid-1930s through the end of 1941, the Red Army was in the process of standing up 10 (yes TEN!) airborne divisions. Not all were operational when Barbarossa was launched and these types of troops, while outstanding, were relatively useless for defense, mostly converted to Guards Rifle regiments,fought as straight leg infantry in the desperate battles of 1941 and 1942, and essentially wasted.


But do you suppose Stalin wanted 10 Airborne divisions for parades?


Bingo. There was going to be a war between the Soviets and Germany. Hitler just beat Stalin to the punch. The Germans knew the Soviets were undertaking a massive rebuilding program to build the Red Army back up (kinda like what Russia is doing right now BTW) and the Germans knew they'd be fully rearmed by 1943. And as anyone who's ever studied anything about Germany knows, the biggest fear the Germans have had for a very long time is a fully armed and prepared Russia sitting on their frontier.
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
56161 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 12:33 pm to
Had Hitler not attacked Stalin, the Red Army would have been immensely powerful by late 1942. Surely it would have been powerful enough to repel a German invasion. Don't forget that if Dr. Todt hadn't perished in an airplane crash that Goering would have remained in charge of putting the German economy on a war footing. Speer replaced Todt in 1942.

So, with Goering in charge of the German war economy, is there any doubt that Stalin's Red Army would be in position to attack to the West by 1943? Goering was never great at anything he tried in his life: not a great fighter pilot, not a great leader, not a great organizational manager -- and by 1942 Goering was addicted to morphine and very erratic.

I have always maintained that Germany's preparation of its economy for war was ad hoc, improvised, not at all planned, and not at all organized, until Speer took over because of an air crash death. I have always maintained that this is the reason why they had no chance to win.

Even with Speer's monumental efforts, he was not able to completely place Germany's economy on a total war footing.

Another example: not only were German women not mobilized for war work in factories, but, foreign young women from Poland and Ukraine were imported to Germany, not for war work, but to work as domestic maids, housekeepers, cooks and baby sitters!
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74579 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 1:11 pm to
Solid points. But I will disagree with you on one thing....


quote:

Goering was never great at anything he tried in his life: not a great fighter pilot, not a great leader, not a great organizational manager -- and by 1942 Goering was addicted to morphine and very erratic.


Goring was actually a very good fighter pilot in WWI. He was highly decorated, including multiple Iron Crosses and the Pour le Merite. And as a testament of his ability at that time he was selected to replace Manfred von Richthofen as the commander of JG1 after the death of the Red Baron. As for his addiction to morphine, that stemmed from the wounds he received during the failed Beer Hall Putsch in 1923. It was then that his nose dive started.
Posted by Keltic Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2006
22332 posts
Posted on 5/23/16 at 2:31 pm to
Stalin needed time, for a lot of reasons, and that is the only reason he signed the peace agreement with Herr Hitler. He had purged almost 90% of his generals in one of his scorch the earth purges a few years before & he knew the Soviet army was in no position to fight Germany then. Too, the Soviet army had next to no tanks & long guns & he needed to buy time for his factories, pulled behind the Urals, to get caught up. Germany, beyond Hitler's lust for land, also desperately needed the oil fields in the Ukraine to keep even a one front war going.
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