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re: Weather Board: Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk for Yankees This PM. Tornado Watch For Masters

Posted on 4/12/19 at 2:51 am to
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 2:51 am to
For sure. Chaser convergence in the shitty terrain of nw la will suck.
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
39311 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 6:15 am to
If I remember right can’t those early storms also help the environment in some cases as long as it doesn’t eat up all the CAPE?
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18053 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 6:47 am to
quote:

I'm intrigued about the next 30 days for the Mississippi River. I follow a YouTube channel hunter/bushcraft guy and it's still pissing snow in Ontario and other parts of Canada that has feeders into the MR.

Literally none of Ontario drains through the Mississippi.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21669 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 7:28 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21669 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 7:40 am to
Update from NWS Shreveport

Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66984 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:06 am to
For Sunday.....

Looks like the severe threats for Saturday will just progress ENE throughout Saturday night and into Sunday.
Masters Sunday???
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:21 am to
STP maxed out across such a large area... Rare to see.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66984 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:23 am to
quote:

Rare to see.

Glad of that, but still hoping that they'll screw up this prediction and it will be just some high winds and lightning.
Posted by PJinAtl
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2007
14698 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:24 am to
quote:

Looks like the severe threats for Saturday will just progress ENE throughout Saturday night and into Sunday.
And yet another Palm Sunday with potential for tornadoes on the eastern side of Dixie Alley.

Although it was in March, this is the 25th anniversary of the Palm Sunday outbreak that killed 40 people across Alabama and Georgia, including 20 in a church just outside of Piedmont.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66984 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:31 am to
This photo was from 25 years ago, Palm Sunday in Lindale, GA
Posted by GeauxLSUGRL
Member since Nov 2014
769 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:31 am to
Now TorCon 7 and possibly climbing (lower in BR)
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
106022 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:35 am to
They ought to change their terminology. Moderate or slight implies no big deal. From experience, if you're covered by those terms you're probably going to have severe weather.

FWIW we had surprise heavy storms in Cenla last night, and it's very dark and gray this morning, when today was supposed to be partly cloudy. I don't know what that implies, if anything.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:39 am to


Agree on the terminology quip. Moderate being higher than enhanced seems counter-intuitive.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66984 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:39 am to
quote:

They ought to change their terminology. Moderate or slight implies no big deal.


i agree. Not sure what the best words to use.

Even their scale of terms seems to be off. Does "Moderate" sound more daunting than "Enhanced"? But we don't want to "cry wolf", either.
But something that appears to be this bad and is labeled "moderate" just doesn't seem to be giving it it's due respect.
Posted by Chuker
St George, Louisiana
Member since Nov 2015
7544 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 8:45 am to
quote:

terminology quip



while were talking terminology, lets figure out better terms for tornado "warning" vs "watch". i still cant remember which is worser.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 9:15 am to
quote:

Even their scale of terms seems to be off. Does "Moderate" sound more daunting than "Enhanced"?


It's this way because it used to be just 4 levels. Marginal. Slight. Moderate. High.

You'd have what they'd call 30% slight days, an enhanced slight risk if you will. Thus, the terms are born.

I get the public confusion though.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
148000 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 9:18 am to
quote:

For central Louisiana. LCL practically ground level and abundant low level shear in place. That's primed for tornado production. Steep lapse rates keep hail a threat as well.

I'll note the hodograph isn't quite the nice sickle shape we've been seeing, but it's outside my knowledge base to speculate how much of an effect that would have. I'll trust the SPC or rds to point out any potential VBV considerations.

so... ummm... a few weeks ago a tree branch went through the roof (and damn near through the ceiling on top of 1 of my roommates) of the rental house where I live

right now we have a blue roof as we await the repairs

so this all has me a little more spooked than usual

I'm still trying to get over that day a couple years ago where we had a tornado emergency and like 2 other tornado warnings in the immediate Alexandria area

oh wait... and only a few months ago where a tornado came through less than 2 miles away from my place and did some good damage in Alex & Pineville
Posted by IdahoTiger
San Diego, CA
Member since Dec 2007
1871 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 9:22 am to
I think they should stress the numerical levels more...so just say Level 4 out of 5 in the main headlines instead of Moderate.
Posted by Scoop
RIP Scoop
Member since Sep 2005
44583 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 9:25 am to
Looking around at different places this morning I’m starting to see language and a tone that isn’t seen that often.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 4/12/19 at 9:27 am to
That's why I put (4/5) in the title. The color coding they use is good but I know the terms are a little confusing for the lay people. Hell my wife, who hears me drone on about weather stuff all the time, still isn't clear on enhanced vs moderate.
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