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2
Posted on 4/12/19 at 9:31 am to Scoop
quote:
Looking around at different places this morning I’m starting to see language and a tone that isn’t seen that often.
For good reason, the potential is on the high end. Some of the model soundings for the mod region are coming in ridiculous.
As rds posited on the previous page, there's reasons this could be a sloppy storm mode and not have the potential realized. I hope that ends up being the case. You should have an idea what you'd do if a PDS Tornado Emergency warning comes at you tomorrow.
Then, we just hope it busts and everyone comes in here yelling at the weatherpeople for not enough death and distraction.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 9:42 am to Duke
quote:
As rds posited on the previous page, there's reasons this could be a sloppy storm mode and not have the potential realized. I hope that ends up being the case. You should have an idea what you'd do if a PDS Tornado Emergency warning comes at you tomorrow.
Then, we just hope it busts and everyone comes in here yelling at the weatherpeople for not enough death and distraction.
Feels a little bit like last month or so Alabama/GA breakout.
The degree expected did not match the degree that showed up.
Hopefully its the reverse this time. Have quite a few friends in the NW/N/NE portions of La.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 9:48 am to Duke
quote:
That's why I put (4/5) in the title. The color coding they use is good but I know the terms are a little confusing for the lay people. Hell my wife, who hears me drone on about weather stuff all the time, still isn't clear on enhanced vs moderate.
You may want to change your thread title to say (4 out of 5) or something. I honestly thought 4/5 meant April 5th and it was from a previous post and you were just updating for this weekends.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:02 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
The degree expected did not match the degree that showed up.
It wasn't that far off, just that when you see a few violent tornadoes an "enhanced" risk doesn't seem to match the damage. I'll note, the SPC was brilliant with the mesoscale discussions on that one. To the point of calling the Lee County tornado 30 minutes before it dropped. Going to be watching those closely tomorrow.
Yeah though, I'd be happy if this busts.
So now, a quick look at some modeling to see the ingredients that are there.
First off, the low level (850 mb) jet.
It's definitely in place, pushing above 64 kts in some places.
Veer + MLCAPE
Got that too.
Then we got a negative tilt of the upper trough show up as the surface low starts to pull NE.
All lining up with the best daytime heating.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:03 am to BigB0882
quote:
You may want to change your thread title to say (4 out of 5) or something. I honestly thought 4/5 meant April 5th and it was from a previous post and you were just updating for this weekends.
You got it. Thanks for the suggestion.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:05 am to Duke
Yeeeeeeeeeeshhhhhhhh
The nerds (who am I kidding im one too) over at 2k have been quiet which makes me more nervous than usual
The nerds (who am I kidding im one too) over at 2k have been quiet which makes me more nervous than usual
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:14 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
The nerds (who am I kidding im one too) over at 2k have been quiet
You didn't choose to be an engineer because you're not a nerd, right?
Those guys are so Texas focused, I'm not surprised there not super excited. Though again, there's definitely hail potential there. My twitter this morning is full of bitching about chasing in the jungle tomorrow. Lot of storm chasers making the journey to chase in bad terrain. Never a good sign.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:16 am to Duke
Louisiana Tech's spring game is cancelled tomorrow. Definitely a good call.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:19 am to Duke
So you are saying I shouldn’t have that back yard picnic at the Pimp Family Compound here in the 70809 tomorrow evening?
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:20 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
No one anticipated that morning event, but that day was very unique. In most cases, a line like that would work over the atmosphere and limit the threat later in the day. However, on April 27th the atmosphere recovered rapidly (sun was out in Bham by 8:30am) and all of the dynamics, factors, parameters, etc. for severe weather were absolutely perfect that day. In most severe weather events things are not as perfect as they were that day.
April 27 outbreak was a once in every 25 years type of event.
One of those days I’ll never forget
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:24 am to Lsupimp
quote:
So you are saying I shouldn’t have that back yard picnic at the Pimp Family Compound here in the 70809 tomorrow evening?
Try the protected courtyard I'm sure you have. The towers should attract the lightning, keeping the guests safe from electrocution.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:28 am to Duke
Is there ANY possibility for the worst of it to be further south than anticipated? I don't like tornadoes and I'd rather not have to worry about this in the Baton Rouge area.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:34 am to Duke
quote:
6 would translate to 30% tornado for the SPC iirc, which would be a moderate risk.
Looks like I’m having a hookers and blow tornado watch party at my place tomorrow night
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:35 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Is there ANY possibility for the worst of it to be further south than anticipated? I don't like tornadoes and I'd rather not have to worry about this in the Baton Rouge area.
No, the worst set up is for the moderate and enhanced regions. That's not to say BR is in the clear though. There are potential tornadoes and damaging winds to consider when the system moves into our area. There's just not the violent long running tornado threat.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:38 am to GEAUXmedic
What did y’all do to piss God off?
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:44 am to deltaland
Suspended Will Wade.
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:53 am to Duke
I am retarded and I dont understand when hour 30 is so about what time will most of this be through Houston?
Posted on 4/12/19 at 10:53 am to deltaland
Pulled an area averaged sounding for north Louisiana from the NAM and HRRR, to reduce the noise you get from point soundings. Hodographs are shaped well (not much of the VBV we've been watching for), low level shear in the 350 range is huge, and saturated at the base for low cloud bases.
Very dangerous situation depicted here.
quote:
I am retarded and I dont understand when hour 30 is so about what time will most of this be through Houston?
It's hour into the model run, and it's all in universal time. So, it's a good question. Houston isn't sitting on much risk anyway, and any storms should be through by early afternoon.
This post was edited on 4/12/19 at 10:56 am
Posted on 4/12/19 at 11:02 am to Duke
quote:
Houston isn't sitting on much risk anyway, and any storms should be through by early afternoon.
Ha thanks. I fell asleep before the weather last night and didnt see the future cast. I am just hoping to boil or grill in the afternoon.
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