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re: Was the US military caught a little flat footed by cheap drone warfare?
Posted on 4/14/26 at 8:43 pm to weagle1999
Posted on 4/14/26 at 8:43 pm to weagle1999
Simply not ready for Iran's tactics and weapons. Intel was lacking.
Posted on 4/14/26 at 8:44 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
also think there is a moral/philosophical component to this too. Didn't serve, so open to thoughts.
Our casualty aversion is so high and most Americans are so removed from tangible losses (property or life) in warfare that a few drone strikes succeeding out of thousands can create a political crisis.
Part of that is the nature of conflicts we get involved in, of course. But still, the enemy knowing that it only has to succeed a couple of times and kill a few dozen servicemembers to potentially greatly undermine our mandate makes it all the more attractive to them and widens the incongruity for us.
Americans are willing to sustain casualties and stay the course if they perceive the cause is worth fighting for. We entered WWII with grim determination that got stronger as the war went on.
What we have is little tolerance for military adventures without a damn good reason. We have even less tolerance for being sold a bill of goods. See: Iraq. See also: Vietnam.
Trump's mistake, and it's a costly one, is not even attempting to build a consensus for going to war beforehand, either with the American people or with our allies. That leaves him no margin for error. Any setback, any indication that it's anything but an overwhelming success, and the knives are out domestically. Internationally, he seems mystified and aggrieved that other countries are reluctant to jump in to this morass with him, after he put no effort into building a coalition, declared we didn’t need any help, then finally tried to browbeat other countries into joining.
Trump's not a stupid man. But he's spent his entire life surrounded by toadies and yes-men who are afraid to tell him what he needs to hear. If somebody does grow a pair and speaks the truth to him, he kicks them to the curb. It leaves him without the tools he needs to make the right decisions, and thinking his own farts smell like roses.
This post was edited on 4/14/26 at 8:46 pm
Posted on 4/14/26 at 8:56 pm to HotBoudin
quote:
Simply not ready for Iran's tactics and weapons. Intel was lacking.
I don't believe that. Conflict with Iran has been war gamed constantly for the last 47 years. I'm no geopolitical expert and I knew Iran would close the strait, attack its neighbors and make the war a costly mess. To boot, we've had a master class in drone warfare for four years courtesy of Ukraine. The people in charge knew or should have known how it would play out. They weren't caught flat footed, they just handwaved away any inconvenient facts that would have required them to think outside the box.
The MIC is a big ship that takes a long time to turn around, primarily because of all the people doing their damdest to keep it going in the same direction, regardless of the iceberg dead ahead.
Posted on 4/14/26 at 9:40 pm to LsuNav
quote:
I went to JPME in 2012. I wrote a paper about the threat of drone warfare. I talked about the benefits and dangers of using them in asymmetrical warfare. The problem has been effective counter drone technology. If only a few drones make it through your defenses, they can still do a great deal of damage.
There's the problem - "only a few". US interception rates have been comparable to Ukraine's, >90%. Considering our optempo and # of assets in the region vs the thousands of missiles fired and tens of thousands of drones, I would say we are doing pretty well, but the losses still hurt.
There was a seminal presentation done by NASA and DARPA back in 2001 that predicted a lot of this stuff, including UAVs. Here's the link to it.
Posted on 4/14/26 at 9:43 pm to weagle1999
GI Drunk and Donny are dumb as rocks so that is a good way to level set whats going on
Posted on 4/14/26 at 10:04 pm to weagle1999
The US military? No. US military contractors and planners? Maybe.
Posted on 4/14/26 at 10:05 pm to weagle1999
Military industrial complex was
Posted on 4/14/26 at 10:13 pm to MikeD
quote:The frick they can't!
Military industrial complex can’t get rich making drones.
Posted on 4/14/26 at 10:26 pm to armytiger96
quote:
I wouldn't say that military has been "caught" flat footed because that implies complacency. I would say the dynamics of drone warfare are changing faster than we can adapt.
More like…changing faster than our archaic military acquisition bureaucracy can adapt and get emerging tech into the field
Posted on 4/14/26 at 10:45 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Internationally, he seems mystified and aggrieved that other countries are reluctant to jump in to this morass with him
He underestimated the extent that the Muslims have taken over our Western Europe “allies”. Despite being incessantly attacked by Iranian terrorism, the Western European countries are afraid of their own Muslim populations and therefore wont join end the source of so much terrorism
Posted on 4/15/26 at 12:41 am to MikeD
quote:
Military industrial complex can’t get rich making drones.
Well those dozen or so Reaper drones Iran has already shot down (plus the additional ones the Houthi's downed last year) cost about 13 million a piece so there's definitely a hefty price tag involved.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:24 am to TheRealTigerHorn
quote:
There's the problem - "only a few". US interception rates have been comparable to Ukraine's, >90%. Considering our optempo and # of assets in the region vs the thousands of missiles fired and tens of thousands of drones, I would say we are doing pretty well, but the losses still hurt.
yes but at what cost? Ukraine is spending like $500 per drone.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:34 am to TigersnJeeps
quote:
But could they do it without damaging equipment on board the ship (or other friendlies) and sustain it for any duration?
Are you asking if using the radar damages the ship....
Jesus christ.
Yes. It can run at 6 megawatts with no issue. And that's non classified.
For the record, you can crash most drones with a 1980s microwave with the door removed. The fiber optic controlled drones and autonomous obviously require a lot more than 600w
But 6000000w should do the trick
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:46 am to X123F45
Jesus Christ - I was thinking of the other electronic equipment....receivers, transmitters etc. EMI/RFI
And does a 1970s radar have the capability to reliably detect, ID and track drones with a small RCS.
And a more useful question, at what range can my microwave take out my neighbor's drones?
And does a 1970s radar have the capability to reliably detect, ID and track drones with a small RCS.
And a more useful question, at what range can my microwave take out my neighbor's drones?
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:53 am to weagle1999
Your wrong impression.
Russia is still in the field.
Russia is still in the field.
Posted on 4/15/26 at 8:54 am to TigersnJeeps
quote:
And a more useful question, at what range can my microwave take out my neighbor's drones?
100 yards easy.
We've crashed a few at the local flying fields as a joke
quote:
And does a 1970s radar have the capability to reliably detect, ID and track drones with a small RCS.
Unclassified is a golf ball in flight at 150 miles
Posted on 4/15/26 at 10:29 am to weagle1999
We have the best weapons in the world and every one of them should be supported by a swarm of drones defensively.
Obviously we should also have attack swarms as well. I'd like to see the Iranian shore of the strait swarming with more drones that mosquitos in the Louisiana bayou.
Obviously we should also have attack swarms as well. I'd like to see the Iranian shore of the strait swarming with more drones that mosquitos in the Louisiana bayou.
Posted on 4/16/26 at 12:20 pm to diat150
quote:
quote:
There's the problem - "only a few". US interception rates have been comparable to Ukraine's, >90%. Considering our optempo and # of assets in the region vs the thousands of missiles fired and tens of thousands of drones, I would say we are doing pretty well, but the losses still hurt.
yes but at what cost? Ukraine is spending like $500 per drone.
The media and pols would have you believe that all we have are Patriots and THAAD. We're cheaper than many think by using everything from Stingers to helos and land versions of CIWS and supposedly some early trials with DE weapons. We're not at $500 per, and we never will be - its a lot cheaper to make those in Ukraine than it ever will be here - but to your point, we do have room for improvement on a $ per kill basis.
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