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UPenn predicts 33 named storms this year
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:11 pm
quote:
University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.
The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2024 hurricane season, (b) development of a moderate La Nina (Niño3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2024 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2023), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024.
If neutral ENSO conditions (Niño3.4 anomaly of 0.0°C) take shape later in 2024, then the prediction will be lower: 30.5 +/- 5.5 storms (range of 25 – 36 storms, with a best guess of 31).
Using an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative model also includes positive ENSO conditions.
Their forecast has been on the low side of actual most years
quote:LINK
Previous Forecasts:
Year Prediction Best Guess Range Actual Count
2023 15.9 +/- 4.0 16 12-20 20
2022 14.9 +/- 3.8 15 11-19 14
2021 11.9 +/- 3.4 12 9-15 21
2020 19.8 +/- 4.4 20 15-24 30
2019 10.1 +/- 3.2 10 7-13 18
2018 10.2 +/- 3.2 10 7-13 15
2017 15.3 +/- 3.9 15 11-20 17
2016 18.9 +/- 4.4 19 14-24 15
2015 6.9 +/- 2.6 7 4-10 11
2014 9.3 +/- 3.0 9 6-12 8
2013 16.0 +/- 4.0 16 12-20 14
2012 11.2 +/- 3.3 11 8-15 19
2011 16.25 +/- 4.0 16 12-20 19
2010 23.4 +/- 4.8 23 19-28 19
2009 11.5 +/- 3.4 12 8-15 (6-13 if El Niño) 9
2007 n/a 15 n/a 15
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:13 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
UPenn predicts 33 named storms this year
Crawfish prices STACKED
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:16 pm to Jim Rockford
I predict 34, so there
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:19 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Michael E. Mann
This guy is a global warming zealot. He cooked up the fake hockey stick climate data. I’d be suspicious of any of his predictions.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:19 pm to Riverside
I only know him from the Miami Vice theme song.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:20 pm to Jim Rockford
How many years have there actually been over 26 names storms in before?
I can only recall one and that was by far the most active year in memory.
I can only recall one and that was by far the most active year in memory.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:25 pm to teke184
2020 is the only time I can recall. Some named storms turn out to be non-events which inflates the numbers.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:30 pm to Jim Rockford
Put me down for 21 named, 3 major and no majors make official landfall.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:31 pm to teke184
quote:
How many years have there actually been over 26 names storms in before?
Twice I can think of. 2020 and 2005.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:33 pm to Jim Rockford
If we're throwing our own guesses, I'll take 26/5/3
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:46 pm to Jim Rockford
So they expect the season to run out of alphabetic names? that has only happened like once or twice right? wasn't 2005 one?
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:53 pm to Duke
quote:
Twice I can think of. 2020 and 2005.
Difference being 2005 was the WOAT and 2020 just had a lot of name stealers.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 4:58 pm to Duke
2005 was legitimately bad.
2020, eh, almost all of the storms were about as overblown and boring as COVID was that same year.
2020, eh, almost all of the storms were about as overblown and boring as COVID was that same year.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 5:24 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Difference being 2005 was the WOAT and 2020 just had a lot of name stealers.
2020 holds the record for most named storms making landfall within the contiguous United States at 11.
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 5:27 pm to Tigerroar73
A lot of people think 2020 was so bad because Louisiana got hit my multiple major hurricanes. When in reality there was a lot of storms that didn’t effect land thankfully. 2020 could of been a lot worse
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 5:32 pm to Jim Rockford
Spell check sorry Jim worse*
Posted on 5/22/24 at 5:35 pm to Jim Rockford
UPenn is probably more concerned with equitable storm naming that represents minority cultures more than the actual storms.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:11 pm to Jim Rockford
I predict 19, one of which will make landfall on the Gulf Coast on September 1st.
So there.
So there.
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