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re: UPenn predicts 33 named storms this year
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:34 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:34 pm to Jim Rockford
Possible, but only because they're naming every fart that comes off the coast of Western Africa now. Trends show 2-3 actual hurricanes
0
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:31 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
2020 holds the record for most named storms making landfall within the contiguous United States at 11.
2005 had Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 7:49 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
I predict 34, so there
1 hurricane, Bob/Drew. I'm gonna price is right both of y'all.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:00 pm to Jim Rockford
Ever since ’05 somebody predicts this next season will be the worst ever.
I guess one year they’ll be right.
I guess one year they’ll be right.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:02 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Michael E. Mann
Should have had his credentials yanked decades ago.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:13 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
UPenn is probably more concerned with equitable storm naming that represents minority cultures more than the actual storms.
I don’t about the names, but I guarantee you the storms will disproportionately affect people of color
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:14 pm to upgrade
quote:
Ever since ’05 somebody predicts this next season will be the worst ever.
At least you didn't exactly say, "They say this every year!".
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:23 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
2025 had Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.
I'm assuming you mean 2005?
That doesn't change the fact that 2020 has the record for most named storms making landfall on the US, with multiple majors......and that slow, lumbering, overachieving bitch Sally. Anyone pointing to 2020 as being a season with an asterisk for having a lot of fish or junk storms is fooling themselves.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:30 pm to Jim Rockford
these predictions are always dramatically wrong
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:32 pm to LegendInMyMind
I don't know about 33. But I do know that there isn't a shred of evidence that there are any factors contradicting the prediction of an active season.
Say a Novena that they all stay out to sea, but prepare to get slammed.
Say a Novena that they all stay out to sea, but prepare to get slammed.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:40 pm to Jim Rockford
lol Penn don’t know shite about storms baw. I wanna hear what Yohan the fisherman says baw
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:50 pm to DVinBR
quote:
these predictions are always dramatically wrong
You sure about that?
Prior to moving to Penn last year Mann was at PSU and was heavily involved with their annual preseason forecast dating back to 2020. He may have been involved somewhere else prior to that, but I haven't looked.
His (or their) forecast was under for 2020 (along with practically everyone else), under in 2021, and they nailed the spread in 2022 and 2023, with 2023 coming in at 20 named storms when their spread was 11-20.
While it isn't a huge sample size, when they've missed they have missed low. Now, I wouldn't take the over if I was betting on their number this year, but I also wouldn't wholesale dismiss it.
ETA: The same can be said about Klotzbach and team at CSU. When they miss they usually miss low. That should give anyone with skin in the game at least a bit of pause given the potential for this season.
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 8:53 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 8:59 pm to Riverside
quote:A few last about 24-36 hours.
2020 is the only time I can recall. Some named storms turn out to be non-events which inflates the numbers
Posted on 5/22/24 at 9:03 pm to Jim Rockford
I'll take the under...
Posted on 5/22/24 at 9:12 pm to Jim Rockford
Bob…I would like to bid one storm this year.
Posted on 5/22/24 at 9:16 pm to North Dallas Tiger
Here's the current list of forecasts, stolen from @tbrite87 on Xwitter.
He hasn't added UKMet (the Brits) who put out their forecast of 22/12/4 today.
quote:
Current 2024 Hurricane Seasonal Forecasts:
(Updated)
FORECASTER/TS/HU/MH/ACE
1) PENN U……………33/XX/X (xxx)
2) WxBell…………….27.5/15/7 (220)
3) CrownWS……….25/12/6 (225)
4) TWC………………..25/12/6 (xxx)
5) TSR………………….23/11/5 (217)
6) CSU…………………23/11/5 (210)
7) TonyB………………23/11/6 (205)
8) AccuWeather….22.5/10/5.5 (200)
9) WeatherTiger….22/10.5/5.5 (193)
10) Arizona U………21/11/5 (156)
11) WESH…………….18/9/4 (xxx)
12) NCSU…………….17.5/11/3.5 (xxx)
Average of all projections:
23/11/5 (203)
He hasn't added UKMet (the Brits) who put out their forecast of 22/12/4 today.
This post was edited on 5/22/24 at 9:17 pm
Posted on 5/23/24 at 11:42 am to LegendInMyMind
NOAA released their forecast today:
Pretty much similar to the other forecasts.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Pretty much similar to the other forecasts.
Posted on 5/23/24 at 12:23 pm to Jim Rockford
But there are only 26 letters in the alphabet.
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