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Started By
Message
re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:04 am to rds dc
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:04 am to rds dc
quote:
Obviously, future track is a big deal but if this misses the islands to the south then it will also be passing over some of the warmest water. It tracks through the islands then it comes out weaker and into cooler waters.
The trend with the GFS has continued to shy closer to Jamaica than Haiti/DR, with the center shooting the gap between the two. The warmer SSTs would seem to support the GFS not weakening even if it clips Jamaica. How consistent it has been with that part of the track is of note.
This is going to be a really good test for the GFS this season. It has been pegged on that general track for a while now with none of the crazy track shifts.
0
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:06 am to rds dc
Interesting fact from Philip Klotzbach of CSU, there are 6 previous seasons that recorded an early hurricane in this part of the basin and all 6 were hyperactive.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:07 am to rds dc
quote:
Interesting fact from Philip Klotzbach of CSU, there are 6 previous seasons that recorded an early hurricane in this part of the basin and all 6 were hyperactive.
There's gotta be something to that. I'm sure someone will study it.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:08 am to rds dc
quote:
Interesting fact from Philip Klotzbach of CSU, there are 6 previous seasons that recorded an early hurricane in this part of the basin and all 6 were hyperactive.
Hello darkness my old friend...
You know what else is crazy? Elsa is blowing away the record for forward motion of a hurricane in that part of the basin. Pretty sure it was already moving about as fast as a TS ever has in the region too.
quote:
There's gotta be something to that.
Conditions good enough for a Cane before the windwards in early July generally could only be for a few reasons and all of them are uh...hurricaney
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 11:10 am
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:32 am to rds dc
quote:
Interesting fact from Philip Klotzbach of CSU, there are 6 previous seasons that recorded an early hurricane in this part of the basin and all 6 were hyperactive.
I'm just not sure that studying 6 seasons will yield much of anything definitive with such a small sampling. I look forward to the day that weather and atmospheric science is more exact. Until then, I guess it's theories galore.
But then how boring will it be when they know within a week or more out an exact landfall?
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:35 am to Duke
Nick 
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:00 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
NWS Key West
@NWSKeyWest
#GOESEast visible satellite loop showing an organizing Hurricane #Elsa affecting the Windward Islands with heavy rain and strong winds. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the hurricane.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:02 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
Hurricane #Elsa
Wait..its a hurricane now?
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:02 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Really hope she makes a big push east.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:03 pm to tgrbaitn08
Pay attention much??????
Yes it is and is hauling arse….
Yes it is and is hauling arse….
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:05 pm to dukke v
quote:
Pay attention much??????
no I typically dont pay attention to storms until they enter The Caribbean or GOM
This post was edited on 7/2/21 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:08 pm to dukke v
quote:
Pay attention much??????
Your use of punctuation is disturbing.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:10 pm to rds dc
Now that looks a lot more realistic.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:11 pm to rds dc
quote:
Interesting fact from Philip Klotzbach of CSU, there are 6 previous seasons that recorded an early hurricane in this part of the basin and all 6 were hyperactive.
It doesn’t taking passing a 4000 level Tropical ATMS class to know if a hurricane forms in this part of the basin this early in the season you’re gonna have a bad time.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:14 pm to tgrbaitn08
Ok neither do I…… but some of these so called weather geeks on here go into panic mode once a storm forms no matter how far away they are…
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:18 pm to Duke
Can we get a
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:19 pm to rds dc
quote:
there are 6 previous seasons that recorded an early hurricane in this part of the basin and all 6 were hyperactive.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:22 pm to rds dc
quote:
Interesting fact from Philip Klotzbach of CSU, there are 6 previous seasons that recorded an early hurricane in this part of the basin and all 6 were hyperactive.
Not at all surprised. They needed a big hurricane season to distract from poor economic news.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 12:25 pm to rds dc
quote:
12z GFS is weaker with no real strengthening before running the system along Cuba.
Looks like the 12z global models are much weaker but they do seem to show a stronger Atlantic ridge later on vs. earlier runs, which was a pretty constant model bias last season.
Whatever the global models are seeing (or not seeing) the 12z HWRF isn't buying it and is stronger and a bit south of 06z.
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