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2
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:01 pm to pistolpete23
GEFS is pretty reasonably dispersive I think to get the spread in where it might end up.
Hard to argue the NHC path at this point but remember if it gets farther west than expectations the gulf steering could get really interesting (rds explained why in a killer post earlier).
Hard to argue the NHC path at this point but remember if it gets farther west than expectations the gulf steering could get really interesting (rds explained why in a killer post earlier).
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:02 pm to pistolpete23
For several years you could always count on the actual tracks being west or slowly shifting west as it got closer. After lasts years easterly shifts, who knows.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:12 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
The HWRF did pretty ok last season so I don't totally dismiss its tracking, just its intensity.
Actually the HWRF nailed intensity last year. It called for Laura to be a strong storm before other models did
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:17 pm to fr33manator
quote:
hurricane blowing huge bales of coke up on the beach
Stop I can only get so erect
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:17 pm to td1
Have any Elsa pictures been posted yet?
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:18 pm to deltaland
quote:
Actually the HWRF nailed intensity last year. It called for Laura to be a strong storm before other models did
Well doesn't it do that with every storm? Bound to be right sometime
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:19 pm to tiger91
quote:
Oh hell no to that
The key part is the PEEJ noodle.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:20 pm to BoogaBear
Nah, it was excellent last year. When it blew something up last year, it was almost always right. Maybe not to the extent of the strengthening but it was a great signal to expect strengthening.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:23 pm to deltaland
That's revisionist history, baw. It did well for a few systems in a single season. It's a known model to overintensify a system. Let's see if it does ok this year before proclaiming it to be a great model.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:24 pm to BoogaBear
quote:
Well doesn't it do that with every storm? Bound to be right sometime
It does, along with its brother, the HMON. But it did do well for a few systems toward the latter part of the season last year. Time will tell I guess.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 3:25 pm to dukke v
quote:
Now enough with the name calling let’s get back to what this storm might do….
It’s too early to discuss what it might do though
Posted on 7/1/21 at 4:05 pm to rds dc
NHC pretty close to consensus model blend and GFS with the 4:00 pm track.
This post was edited on 7/1/21 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 7/1/21 at 4:16 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
Posted on 7/1/21 at 4:18 pm to rds dc
No way this thing goes west of laffy
Posted on 7/1/21 at 4:20 pm to Duke
Meanwhile, active tornado warnings in......Delaware and New Jersey.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 4:24 pm to rds dc
Welp, I just arrived in Dallas this afternoon to party with friends for the holiday and am supposed to fly back home to Florida on Tuesday. Landing in Orlando at 6:30pm Eastern and drive north to my house in northeast Florida.
I’m definitely getting concerned now…
I’m definitely getting concerned now…
Posted on 7/1/21 at 4:24 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Meanwhile, active tornado warnings in......Delaware and New Jersey.
You see that big arse trough just chilling along the NE in all the models?
Wedges or something.
Posted on 7/1/21 at 4:29 pm to Duke
Yep. There have been some unusual SPC risk areas the past few days from it.
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