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re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks

Posted on 6/28/21 at 8:20 pm to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
48901 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 8:20 pm to
I don’t think over ever seen such little rain in a landfalling tropical storm.
This post was edited on 6/28/21 at 8:52 pm
Posted by rmc
Truth or Consequences
Member since Sep 2004
27170 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 8:31 pm to
Need the tracking cone pls.
Posted by pwejr88
Red Stick
Member since Apr 2007
37139 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 8:53 pm to


Unedited chart of wind arrival.

* LINK
This post was edited on 6/28/21 at 8:54 pm
Posted by LSUJML
Central
Member since May 2008
50872 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 8:54 pm to
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13154 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 11:49 pm to
Rds, Duke and other experts:

What is going on with the 00Z GFS tonight?

It is 9 days out but 975 mb off Vermilion Bay next Thursday??

Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172717 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 11:50 pm to
Man frick the NHC so hard. They really named that shite.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172717 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 11:51 pm to
quote:

It’s gonna be another fake early season Carolina storm. This was the one last year. Check out those winds.



2021 storm might have been even worse.
Posted by CHUGS
Panama city
Member since Jun 2021
53 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 11:52 pm to
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
172717 posts
Posted on 6/28/21 at 11:54 pm to
This post was edited on 6/29/21 at 12:04 am
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67041 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:34 am to
Don't look at the 00z GFS, baws.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67041 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:36 am to
quote:

It is 9 days out but 975 mb off Vermilion Bay next Thursday??


Let's hope this has everything to do with it, and the next run it goes away.
This post was edited on 6/29/21 at 12:37 am
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
75376 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:38 am to
How many of these "named" storms were missed during the first 70 years of the 20th century? And, how can we compare numbers today when we know how flawed those previous numbers were?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67041 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 12:46 am to
quote:

How many of these "named" storms were missed during the first 70 years of the 20th century?

I think that is a fair question that needs to be asked and considered in today's weather climate. I've asked the same question in regards to tornadoes. With more people chasing and spotting them, more cameras in people's hands and remotely operated, and better radar, we are finding/spotting more tornadoes than at any time in the past.

Because of that, we need to be careful with how that data is compared to the historical record, particularly when it is used into the Climate Change debate. Presentation will be the key to everything in that regard.

The same goes for tropical cyclones.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
75832 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 7:49 am to
quote:

How many of these "named" storms were missed during the first 70 years of the 20th century? And, how can we compare numbers today when we know how flawed those previous numbers were?


That's why you hear references to "the satellite era".

If we review the last 55 years and count up the fish storms we should get a good idea how many we missed in the past.
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 8:02 am to
quote:

Let's hope this has everything to do with it, and the next run it goes away.


6z run goes a little west and weaker. Almost into Cameron.
Posted by PorkSammich
North FL
Member since Sep 2013
15751 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:13 am to
quote:

don’t think over ever seen such little rain in a landfalling tropical storm.


Bc it was just a cluster of thunderstorms.
Posted by ABucks11
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2012
1208 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:24 am to
The models like 97L Invest > 95W

10 day spaghetti scramble
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
126017 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:32 am to
Will have a much better idea of where 97L is going in about 8 days

ETA of course the average black line is right up NOLA poop shoot
This post was edited on 6/29/21 at 9:33 am
Posted by soccerfüt
Location: A Series of Tubes
Member since May 2013
70515 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:32 am to
Requisite dukke Prediction:



Posted by EveryoneGetsATrophy
Member since Nov 2017
2907 posts
Posted on 6/29/21 at 9:36 am to
quote:

Requisite dukke Prediction:


I prefer this model.
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