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Started By
Message
re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
Posted on 9/11/21 at 7:33 am to BallsEleven
Posted on 9/11/21 at 7:33 am to BallsEleven
quote:
SWLA. Most of the rain coming throughout the day Monday with as much as 10” in a 6 hour window in some places
I hope this isn’t going to be another May flood disaster for us in Lake Charles. I do predict ample shark sightings on Enterprise Blvd though.
Posted on 9/11/21 at 8:16 am to Jake88
quote:
I wouldn't be surprised if it was much less than we suspect. Like some sustained winds of 60-70 and a gust or two at 90.
No way of knowing but had to be hurricane force gusts in western Washington Parish that night. A huge oak in my neighbors yard snapped like a twig about 8 feet up before the power went out about 8:30.
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:04 pm to sledgehammer
I’m assuming that at this point, this is going to be a heavy rainfall event more than a full on wind, surge and tornado hurricane event? Looking at what is projected now, looks like an unorganized tropical depression
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:08 pm to BregmansWheelbarrow
Careful.
We're not talking anything crazy like Ida but it forms in the right spot it could organize into a decent TS to even a min hurricane. Rain will still be the main story but I wouldnt write it off as just a weak TS just yet.
We're not talking anything crazy like Ida but it forms in the right spot it could organize into a decent TS to even a min hurricane. Rain will still be the main story but I wouldnt write it off as just a weak TS just yet.
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:12 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
I live in south Gonzales and my lowest pressure was 28.91 inches (979 mb).
I got down to 972.
In Denham Springs (well, just south of it by the Amite), mine read 975.
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:12 pm to Duke
That’s why I was going by current projections. I don’t count my chickens 
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:13 pm to Duke
quote:
Careful.
We're not talking anything crazy like Ida but it forms in the right spot it could organize into a decent TS to even a min hurricane. Rain will still be the main story but I wouldnt write it off as just a weak TS just yet.

Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:13 pm to Jake88
quote:
Wunderground has a bunch of weather stations from people's houses linked that you can find on a map, but at about 10pm they weren't registering anything, probably because they rely on electricity.
I question how well some of those are calibrated. Some within a few miles of each other were showing radically different wind speeds and directions at the same time. Granted there can be local gusts but one shouldn't be showing SSW while another just down the road shows due E
This post was edited on 9/11/21 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:17 pm to Duke
You kind of have to hate the 12Z GFS run. It doesn't stall it after landfall, but keeps it just offshore enough to let it get better organized and strengthen some. It rides the TX coast, gets to 996mb and makes "landfall" near Lake Chuck.
Let's see if that becomes a trend. It had that solution on the 18Z run yesterday, but went away from it. Now, it is back.
Let's see if that becomes a trend. It had that solution on the 18Z run yesterday, but went away from it. Now, it is back.
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:18 pm to LegendInMyMind
Brings the shitty stuff to sela also 
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:19 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I question how well done of those are calibrated. Some within a few miles of each other were showing radically different wind speeds and directions at the same time. Granted there can be local gusts but one shouldn't be showing SSW while another just down the road shows due E
Right, they must be placed perfectly in order to collect an accurate wind reading. My vantage pro 2, for example, is placed 23’ above the surface because I can’t safely place it at the required height of 33’. On top of that, it’s only accurate for wind blowing out of the ESE due to trees blocking every other direction.
The highest reading it measured the night of Ida was 78mph out of the ENE and then it got hit by debris or something and stopped being anywhere close to accurate after that. This was an hour and a half before the hardest winds started blowing out of almost due north. my gusts had to be 100-115mph.
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:20 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
I question how well done of those are calibrated.
You're always going to have that issue with that type equipment.
As far as the wind direction and speed, that isn't unbelievable. With the nature of Ida's eye and eyewall, readings could have varied widely across a relatively small area.
This post was edited on 9/11/21 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 9/11/21 at 1:00 pm to LegendInMyMind
LC’s last year:
Direct hit by Cat 4, freeze, flood, dodge bullet, flood again!
If that was a relationship, I would dump that crazy bitch!
Direct hit by Cat 4, freeze, flood, dodge bullet, flood again!
If that was a relationship, I would dump that crazy bitch!
Posted on 9/11/21 at 1:02 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
TDsngumbo
You down in SE Ascension right?
100 mph+ gusts are a reasonable guess down there. You caught the core.
Posted on 9/11/21 at 1:39 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
LC’s last year:
Direct hit by Cat 4, freeze, flood, dodge bullet, flood again!
You’re forgetting Hurricane Delta 6 weeks after Laura. Yeah, it was only a cat 2, but those winds tore up my tarp allowing more water into my house.
Posted on 9/11/21 at 2:24 pm to sledgehammer
Tropics really heating up now


Posted on 9/11/21 at 2:45 pm to rds dc
quote:
. Models have been all over the place but the one common theme has been the potential for some bigtime rain totals.
We aren’t talking Harvey/Imelda for Beaumont area right? I’d like to make at least one more year till we flood again
Posted on 9/11/21 at 2:49 pm to deltaland
quote:
Tropics really heating up now![]()
Watching 4 systems in the Gulf of Mexico
-Signed
The Crack Weather Staff of The Advocate
This post was edited on 9/11/21 at 2:50 pm
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