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re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana

Posted on 9/11/21 at 7:33 am to
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
6785 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 7:33 am to
quote:

SWLA. Most of the rain coming throughout the day Monday with as much as 10” in a 6 hour window in some places

I hope this isn’t going to be another May flood disaster for us in Lake Charles. I do predict ample shark sightings on Enterprise Blvd though.
Posted by gizmothepug
Louisiana
Member since Apr 2015
8520 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 8:16 am to
quote:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was much less than we suspect. Like some sustained winds of 60-70 and a gust or two at 90.


No way of knowing but had to be hurricane force gusts in western Washington Parish that night. A huge oak in my neighbors yard snapped like a twig about 8 feet up before the power went out about 8:30.
Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
3121 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:04 pm to
I’m assuming that at this point, this is going to be a heavy rainfall event more than a full on wind, surge and tornado hurricane event? Looking at what is projected now, looks like an unorganized tropical depression
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:08 pm to
Careful.

We're not talking anything crazy like Ida but it forms in the right spot it could organize into a decent TS to even a min hurricane. Rain will still be the main story but I wouldnt write it off as just a weak TS just yet.
Posted by Rick9Plus
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2020
2436 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:12 pm to
quote:

I live in south Gonzales and my lowest pressure was 28.91 inches (979 mb).

I got down to 972.


In Denham Springs (well, just south of it by the Amite), mine read 975.
Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
3121 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:12 pm to
That’s why I was going by current projections. I don’t count my chickens
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49222 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

Careful.

We're not talking anything crazy like Ida but it forms in the right spot it could organize into a decent TS to even a min hurricane. Rain will still be the main story but I wouldnt write it off as just a weak TS just yet.

Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
104406 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

Wunderground has a bunch of weather stations from people's houses linked that you can find on a map, but at about 10pm they weren't registering anything, probably because they rely on electricity.


I question how well some of those are calibrated. Some within a few miles of each other were showing radically different wind speeds and directions at the same time. Granted there can be local gusts but one shouldn't be showing SSW while another just down the road shows due E
This post was edited on 9/11/21 at 12:19 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71858 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:17 pm to
You kind of have to hate the 12Z GFS run. It doesn't stall it after landfall, but keeps it just offshore enough to let it get better organized and strengthen some. It rides the TX coast, gets to 996mb and makes "landfall" near Lake Chuck.

Let's see if that becomes a trend. It had that solution on the 18Z run yesterday, but went away from it. Now, it is back.
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:18 pm to
Brings the shitty stuff to sela also
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
49222 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

I question how well done of those are calibrated. Some within a few miles of each other were showing radically different wind speeds and directions at the same time. Granted there can be local gusts but one shouldn't be showing SSW while another just down the road shows due E

Right, they must be placed perfectly in order to collect an accurate wind reading. My vantage pro 2, for example, is placed 23’ above the surface because I can’t safely place it at the required height of 33’. On top of that, it’s only accurate for wind blowing out of the ESE due to trees blocking every other direction.

The highest reading it measured the night of Ida was 78mph out of the ENE and then it got hit by debris or something and stopped being anywhere close to accurate after that. This was an hour and a half before the hardest winds started blowing out of almost due north. my gusts had to be 100-115mph.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71858 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

I question how well done of those are calibrated.

You're always going to have that issue with that type equipment.

As far as the wind direction and speed, that isn't unbelievable. With the nature of Ida's eye and eyewall, readings could have varied widely across a relatively small area.
This post was edited on 9/11/21 at 12:24 pm
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
11050 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 1:00 pm to
LC’s last year:
Direct hit by Cat 4, freeze, flood, dodge bullet, flood again!
If that was a relationship, I would dump that crazy bitch!
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

TDsngumbo


You down in SE Ascension right?

100 mph+ gusts are a reasonable guess down there. You caught the core.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129541 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 1:36 pm to
New euro

Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
6785 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

LC’s last year:
Direct hit by Cat 4, freeze, flood, dodge bullet, flood again!


You’re forgetting Hurricane Delta 6 weeks after Laura. Yeah, it was only a cat 2, but those winds tore up my tarp allowing more water into my house.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100636 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 2:24 pm to
Tropics really heating up now

Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
112714 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 2:25 pm to
'Tis the season...
Posted by texastiger38
Member since Sep 2007
27552 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 2:45 pm to
quote:

. Models have been all over the place but the one common theme has been the potential for some bigtime rain totals.


We aren’t talking Harvey/Imelda for Beaumont area right? I’d like to make at least one more year till we flood again
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
11621 posts
Posted on 9/11/21 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

Tropics really heating up now


Watching 4 systems in the Gulf of Mexico

-Signed
The Crack Weather Staff of The Advocate
This post was edited on 9/11/21 at 2:50 pm
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