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re: Tropical Storm Isaias - O Canada!

Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:11 pm to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42409 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:11 pm to
I was just about to post the visible satellite. Looks like shear and dry air must be kicking its butt. Deeper convection is displaced quite a ways east of the center with basically no convection on the west side. I think Isaias landfalling in FL as a hurricane is a stretch.
This post was edited on 8/1/20 at 2:14 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42409 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:17 pm to
Water vapor indicates plenty of drier air on the western side of Isaias that it is having to fight.

This post was edited on 8/1/20 at 2:19 pm
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
11975 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:20 pm to
I love tropical weather and studying hurricanes but if a depression forms and heads out to the northern Atlantic waters, I don’t really follow it.

Unless a pTC is a possible impact to the Gulf, I zone out and don’t really follow the advisories or Levi Cowan videos.
This post was edited on 8/1/20 at 2:21 pm
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35619 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:21 pm to
"hurricane"

Can't think of many uglier storms to be classified as a hurricane.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:22 pm to
18z internal products downgraded this to a TS but will have to wait and see if NHC does the same with the next public update.
Posted by SpotCheckBilly
Member since May 2020
6466 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:23 pm to
quote:


Can't think of many uglier storms to be classified as a hurricane.



It should be called "Hurricane Lena"
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
15650 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:23 pm to
I’m not sure I’d even call it a tropical depression based on its IR satellite appearance.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35619 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

I’m not sure I’d even call it a tropical depression based on its IR satellite appearance.



Wouldn't go that far but it's pretty lopsided and sloppy even relative to tropical storms.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

I’m not sure I’d even call it a tropical depression based on its IR satellite appearance.



Incoming recon finds a pressure over 1000mb?
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120265 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

18z internal products


These are the big money for profit weather boys?
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42409 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 3:36 pm to
Quite unimpressive looking on the Miami radar

Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
11301 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 3:44 pm to
I don’t know how much they will weaken it for the upcoming advisory, but even flight level winds are below hurricane force.

ETA- tropical Storm 70 mph and pressure of 993 at 4 PM CDT
This post was edited on 8/1/20 at 3:52 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42409 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 4:04 pm to
Here is the new cone. NHC thinks it will regain hurricane status tonight.



quote:

A combination of Isaias moving over the warm Gulfstream waters during the convective maximum period and increasing frictional convergence due to land interaction with Florida should lead to an increase in deep convection near and over the center, as shown by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model. As a result, Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane status tonight, as shown by the HWRF and HMON model fields.
This post was edited on 8/1/20 at 4:07 pm
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164137 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 4:16 pm to
quote:

Tropical Storm Isaias

Posted by Stevo
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2004
11386 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 4:37 pm to
I'll be at Rehoboth next week. Hope it's not a total dud.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 5:23 pm to
quote:

Incoming recon finds a pressure over 1000mb?


Convection has been creeping back towards the center and recon has seen a slight drop in pressure so far.

Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
24801 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 6:42 pm to
quote:

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
Tropical Storm #Isaias Advisory 19A: Isaias Expected to Re-Strengthen to a Hurricane Overnight While it Approaches the Southeast Coast of Florida
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
39115 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 6:50 pm to
Evening gents. In 2008 we had one skirt the coast like this. It parked in the Atlantic due east of Orlando, then proceeded to dump up to 28 inches of rain in 24 hours.

Even these little ones are pretty bad if the tree is on Your house. Let's be careful over there.
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
14460 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

Even these little ones are pretty bad if the tree is on Your house. Let's be careful over there.


Just had 5 trees removed from near my house yesterday. I feel a little better now
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
39115 posts
Posted on 8/1/20 at 7:09 pm to
quote:

Just had 5 trees removed from near my house yesterday


Congrats I am in the wind cone, but only have a 5% chance of getting any wind above 39 mph. Good luck up there.
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