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re: Tropical Storm Debby - Flooding Threat Slowly Shifting NE

Posted on 7/31/24 at 10:16 pm to
Posted by Z Cavaricci
Member since Jun 2020
2053 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 10:16 pm to
quote:

tonight Im taking the Gulf scenario as the most likely.

Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 10:50 pm to
lmao
Posted by TrigSwig
Member since May 2024
331 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:29 pm to
Oh boy....GFS 11 PM model shows a Cat 3 hurricane hitting Biloxi next Thursday.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5053 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:29 pm to
0z GFS has an insane run where it never makes landfall. Sits offshore Panama City from Monday to Wednesday stalling out and intensifying to then drifts back south and west towards the Miss/La by Friday as a major hurricane
This post was edited on 7/31/24 at 11:31 pm
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:30 pm to
What in the actual frick? Massive chaos if this played out







Bamafig
This post was edited on 7/31/24 at 11:34 pm
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15295 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:32 pm to
quote:

Oh boy....GFS 11 PM model shows a Cat 3 hurricane hitting Biloxi next Thursday.



that model run sucks

I'd rather be in the bullseye right now than later
Posted by TrigSwig
Member since May 2024
331 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:32 pm to
A few of the other models are hinting at this same stalling scenario. Not good. The next 24 to 72 hours will be very interesting as this begins to hit the local news markets tomorrow AM.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5053 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:35 pm to
Everyone along the gulf coast would have no way of getting insurance ever again if that run would ever verify.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15295 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:36 pm to
quote:

Everyone along the gulf coast would have no way of getting insurance ever again if that run would ever verify.



for real. MS Gulf Coast would just get reclaimed back by nature
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1941 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:40 pm to
quote:

that model run sucks I'd rather be in the bullseye right now than later


400 mile wide bullseye on that run
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15295 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:42 pm to
quote:

400 mile wide bullseye on that run



can be taken so many ways. I mean if that thing were to really sit near the coast of FL, strengthen, then approach anything near LA/MS border....

talk about screwing everything from Panama City to New Orleans East with wind/especially flood damage
Posted by Turnblad85
Member since Sep 2022
5551 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 11:54 pm to
quote:

nola needs a cleansing…




nola needs to keep their trash in nola. Not repeats of Katrina. I don't even know if any cities would open their doors for any refugees again after past experiences.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:01 am to
You couldn't ask for a shittier setup than what produces that run. It had an absolute breakdown of all steering. The trough has made it to the East coast before the system is even fully off of Cuba. It feels the pull a bit, but pretty much misses the front entirely. It slows down, a ridge builds to the west of it causing it to drift. With favorable conditions to work with, it strengthens.

Just all around shite.

ETA: The 500mb level tells it all on that one.
This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 12:03 am
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:08 am to
Posted by Python
Member since May 2008
6664 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:23 am to
That would be an absolute disaster for most of the gulf coast. No way that verifies. This thing could still be an east coast storm. Getting unlikely but still possible.
Posted by 9Fiddy
19th Hole
Member since Jan 2007
66984 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 12:30 am to
Posted by BOSCEAUX
Where the Down Boys go.
Member since Mar 2008
52401 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:28 am to
Love how the GFS has it sit off the panhandle as a small storm and then when it puts it in reverse it blows up like a new bride with a thyroid disorder waddling toward Biloxi.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:45 am to
The 00z Canadian continues the trend with a little shift to the south which puts it a little farther west into the Gulf, staying over water instead of riding the coast along the FL peninsula. It still has it getting swept up by the trough and turning NE across GA. The main takeaway from this run is that the Canadian has come in line more with the GFS and Euro in regards to the path closer to Cuba.
This post was edited on 8/1/24 at 1:46 am
Posted by BuddyRoeaux
Northshore
Member since Jun 2019
2780 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:49 am to
Posted by slutiger5
Parroquias de Florida
Member since May 2007
12320 posts
Posted on 8/1/24 at 1:56 am to
Contraflow starting Monday?
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