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re: Tropical Storm Debby - Flooding Threat Slowly Shifting NE

Posted on 7/31/24 at 7:41 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

This "Col" pattern generally signals potential for the steering currents in/around this tropical wave to collapse in several days as it nears the SE US, Florida, &/or the East-Central Gulf Coast, potentially as a bonafide tropical cyclone (TC) by then.

This is the key takeaway.

If it misses the trough and associated front moving through the Eastern US around the time it is on approach to the coast it will be big problems for somewhere.
This post was edited on 7/31/24 at 7:43 pm
Posted by rmc
Truth or Consequences
Member since Sep 2004
27370 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 7:42 pm to
I have a fourball weekend after next in SE LA. What are the chances it’s a go? I need a cone of certainty please.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 7:45 pm to
There is no cone, won't be a cone for several more days if we even got one. Any where from hate to say it from louisiana eastward and then on the atlantic side need to keep an eye on it
This post was edited on 7/31/24 at 7:46 pm
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40230 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 7:51 pm to
Me. Either.

Damnit. .
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216467 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 7:52 pm to
It’s all about timing.
Posted by Rick9Plus
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2020
2500 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 8:31 pm to
This is cliche and on the bingo card but can any weather expert weigh in on someone who is supposed to fly out of Key West on Saturday the 3rd?
Posted by whiskey over ice
Member since Sep 2020
3760 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 8:37 pm to
It’s not Punta Cana so you should be ok
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 8:41 pm to
quote:

Elsewhere, in other weather news, Omaha is getting absolutely rocked right now.

Close to a quarter million customers without power in Omaha after this storm rolled through.

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Posted by Dissident Aggressor
Member since Aug 2011
5656 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 8:41 pm to
bring it muthafreeka
nola needs a cleansing…
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102715 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

Half a blob left no question.



Posted by FCP
Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra
Member since Sep 2010
5172 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 9:04 pm to
quote:

nola needs a cleansing…
Problem with a NOLA cleansing is that I've got a shite ton of dead trees left over from last year's drought and maybe a pine beetle infestation. Whatever, if NOLA gets hammered, our corner of NW Livingston Parish is gonna require a complete rebuild of the electrical grid. I'll be fine for a while--invested in a whole home PTO generator after Ida--but Demco's refusal to do preventative clearing will end up making Center Point in Houston look competent.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 9:23 pm to
God this is gonna be a fricking headache, aint it?

Let's go meander around the Gulf and threaten catastrophic flooding, like a dickhead!

Obviously the eastern soln still on the table, but tonight Im taking the Gulf scenario as the most likely.
Posted by lesthemadhatter
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2015
1495 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 9:24 pm to
Any chance this thing stays weaker till landfall?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 9:26 pm to
If the GFS solution pans out the strength (or lack thereof) won't be the big story. It could stay weak and still dump a shite ton of rain.
This post was edited on 7/31/24 at 9:27 pm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 9:27 pm to
Landfall is a very difficult question if it gets in the Gulf. Not a lot to direct it. So makes the question of landfall strength just as challenging, since the when and the where of landfall are tough to figure
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 9:33 pm to
If it gets in gulf, it’ll be a LA storm. It’s just the way it goes
Posted by gizmothepug
Louisiana
Member since Apr 2015
8665 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

If it gets in gulf, it’ll be a LA storm. It’s just the way it goes


Take it back.
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 9:35 pm to
quote:

Take it back.

quote:

It’s just the way it goes


I don’t make the rulez.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43482 posts
Posted on 7/31/24 at 10:09 pm to
quote:

tonight Im taking the Gulf scenario as the most likely


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