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re: Tropical Storm Cindy

Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:15 pm to
Posted by CuseTiger
Member since Jul 2013
9062 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

In laws SW flight to MSY Friday has already been canceled as of an hour ago.

On Friday???? That's the first I've heard of friday cancellations, was fully expecting wednesday and thursday cancellations
Posted by OweO
Plaquemine, La
Member since Sep 2009
122014 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:15 pm to
PJ, no bullshite. What are the conditions expected to be on the west side of Iberville Parish and West Baton Rouge parish?
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
40275 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:16 pm to
y'all prepped yet?

Posted by Schmelly
Member since Jan 2014
16126 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:18 pm to
Isn't it a bit odd that LSU hasn't said a peep about this yet? Not even an email
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

Is the gulf warm enough this time of year that more time over water makes it stronger? Or does no northern movement mean good things for S. Louisiana?


Strengthening of the storm isn't very likely.



Notice the lower level circulation visible in the yellowish clouds. Now notice the white plumes that try to blow up in the NW quadrant - they're almost immediately blown off to the NE by the strong shear. The same thing that is keeping the storm from closing around the NW and SW quadrants is keeping the flow of moisture from the Yucatan feeding the eastern side of the storm.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

I definitely think this is Cindy at this point.

has the circulation closed?

as you noted, it was fighting wind sheer which I figured was keeping the eye open

ETA: and was basically the only reason it hasn't gotten its name yet
This post was edited on 6/20/17 at 12:22 pm
Posted by WinnPtiger
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2011
24989 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

On Friday???? That's the first I've heard of friday cancellations, was fully expecting wednesday and thursday cancellations



yeah that seems odd, none of the flights in from Love have been cancelled tomorrow yet
Posted by LSU2001
Cut Off, La.
Member since Nov 2007
2388 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:23 pm to
Recon logging west winds now so it is likely closed off.
URNT15 KNHC 201714
AF308 0203A INVEST HDOB 17 20170620
170300 2512N 09023W 9662 00314 //// +225 //// 244023 023 019 000 01
170330 2511N 09021W 9662 00315 //// +226 //// 245022 023 019 001 01
170400 2510N 09020W 9662 00315 //// +230 //// 247022 023 020 001 01
170430 2509N 09018W 9663 00317 //// +230 //// 246021 022 019 000 01
170500 2508N 09017W 9663 00318 //// +230 //// 243021 021 017 000 01
170530 2508N 09015W 9663 00319 //// +230 //// 246021 022 017 000 01
170600 2507N 09014W 9663 00320 //// +229 //// 246020 021 017 001 01
170630 2506N 09012W 9662 00320 //// +228 //// 242019 020 015 001 01
170700 2505N 09011W 9663 00319 //// +229 //// 246020 021 015 001 01
170730 2504N 09009W 9662 00322 //// +228 //// 247020 021 017 000 01
170800 2503N 09008W 9663 00320 //// +230 //// 248020 020 016 000 01
170830 2502N 09006W 9664 00319 //// +230 //// 248019 020 013 001 01
170900 2501N 09004W 9662 00322 //// +233 //// 246019 020 015 001 01
170930 2500N 09003W 9662 00322 //// +232 //// 244019 019 015 001 01
171000 2459N 09001W 9662 00322 //// +230 //// 243019 019 017 001 01
171030 2458N 09000W 9663 00322 //// +229 //// 238020 021 017 001 01
171100 2458N 08958W 9662 00325 //// +229 //// 232021 021 016 001 01
171130 2457N 08957W 9663 00324 //// +225 //// 234021 021 018 000 01
171200 2456N 08956W 9662 00325 //// +225 //// 232021 022 017 001 01
171230 2455N 08954W 9663 00324 //// +227 //// 233022 023 019 000 01
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216404 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:24 pm to
Depends on the track Chris. And the speed.. going as slowly as it is going the rain totals will increase....
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138857 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

y'all prepped yet?


Yep

Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

Recon logging west winds now so it is likely closed off.

thank you good sir (or ma'am... however you self-identify)
Posted by CuseTiger
Member since Jul 2013
9062 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:27 pm to
My guess is it was an early morning flight to MSY or from MSY, meaning southwest doesn't think they'll get the flight in on thursday night
Posted by OKellsBells
USA
Member since Dec 2016
5264 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

I've stayed glued to these threads for any large weather event that Louisiana has experienced since Katrina. They are almost always hours ahead of the news and much easier to digest. I can't tell you how many friends I have warned of nearby tornados, flooding and other threatening events, because of the information provided by numerous posters in these type of threads.


I agree. It is much better than trying to get the same info from TV. To all these knowledgeable posters compiling/deciphering the info and keeping us up to date- thank you.
Posted by sealawyer
Coonassganistan
Member since Nov 2012
3145 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

recon logging west winds now so it is likely closed off.


What does that mean exactly? winds going in all directions, making a center more defined?
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
102056 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:29 pm to
Posted by ItzMe1972
Member since Dec 2013
12589 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:31 pm to
Storm music.....

Storm Comin' ....Tony Joe White

LINK
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51676 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

has the circulation closed?

as you noted, it was fighting wind sheer which I figured was keeping the eye open

ETA: and was basically the only reason it hasn't gotten its name yet


Circulation looks better, and might be trying to close. They found 57 mph winds in the NE quadrant of the storm. Also hearing this from people who are more knowledgable that I.

New advisory will be out at 1pm CDT, so we will see then.
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53867 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:32 pm to
Posted by LSU2001
Cut Off, La.
Member since Nov 2007
2388 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:34 pm to
Yes, usually it is the west wind that is last to be found in a developing system. Recon is now finding steady west winds around the center of circulation so that should mean that the circulation is fully circular or a closed low. It has been open on the south west side so far so finding the steady west winds indicates that it has closed the circulation.
Now whether or not the NCH upgrades it to Cindy will largely depend on the thinking of the forecaster on duty. I expect the 2 pm update to go ahead and name this system Cindy.
Just my opinion though.
Posted by StrongBackWeakMind
Member since May 2014
22650 posts
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

To all these knowledgeable posters compiling/deciphering the info and keeping us up to date- thank you.
Ditto.
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