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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:50 pm to Creamer
quote:
Is the stall good or bad in regards to the hope that shear does work on this thing?
Shear is going to work this thing over regardless of forward motion. It's why it's so lopsided.
The darker reds are indicative of colder cloud tops, showing us convection. You see in the loop a big plume pops up at the center and immediately gets pushed to the N and E. There's your shear.
A stall is bad here because it'll rain over the same area longer, but the stall might just be a result of the center finally coalescing. All we can do is wait and see.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:51 pm to CypressTrout10
I work in ST. L and I was in Port Barre the other day and the Teche is sitting hella high still. Makes me worry a bit.
Plaisance got nailed twice this year.
Plaisance got nailed twice this year.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:51 pm to AU24
quote:
Only 4 Atlantic hurricane seasons on record have had 2 concurrent named storms in June: 1909, 1959, 1968, now 2017.
That's actually really surprising. I would have thought for sure that number would have been higher.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:54 pm to AU24
quote:
Only 4 Atlantic hurricane seasons on record have had 2 concurrent named storms in June: 1909, 1959, 1968, now 2017.
Bret is the real outlier of the two.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:56 pm to Duke
Houma gonna drown from this one I fear. Everything still saturated from last week. Water already was high in low areas and now the locks will be closed with no where for the rain water to go.... hope we don't get close to the predicted rain totals
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:57 pm to slackster
We have Cindy
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:58 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CINDY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite imagery, aircraft data, and surface observations indicate
that the low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico has
acquired a well-defined center, and is now Tropical Storm Cindy, the
third tropical storm of 2017.
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
centered near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Cindy has
been stationary for the past few hours, but the system is expected
to resume a motion toward the northwest at around 10 mph (17 km/h)
later today, and this motion is expected to continue through
Wednesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast early
Thursday. On the forecast track, Cindy is expected to approach
the coast of southwest Louisiana late Wednesday or Wednesday night,
and move inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas on
Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system
reaches the coast on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward
within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected
farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through
Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:58 pm to slackster
this is bad, really really bad....looking like 15"-20" of rain for South East La through Saturday. I see a storm surge that will flood a lot of the lower lying areas.
This is going to catch a lot of people off guard.
This is going to catch a lot of people off guard.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 12:58 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Cindy, imma need ya to head a bit more West, and then up through Central Texas. Would like to turn my sprinklers off for a couple days. Thanks!
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:00 pm to bayoudude
quote:
Houma gonna drown from this one I fear. Everything still saturated from last week. Water already was high in low areas and now the locks will be closed with no where for the rain water to go.... hope we don't get close to the predicted rain totals
yep....lower Terrebone is fricked
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:01 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:and where exactly are you seeing this?
looking like 15"-20" of rain for South East La through Saturday.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:01 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
..looking like 15"-20" of rain for South East La
Where are you getting those totals from?
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:01 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Cindy, imma need ya to head a bit more West, and then up through Central Texas. Would like to turn my sprinklers off for a couple days. Thanks!
anyone remember Tropical Storm Allison?
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:02 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Updated rainfall forecast totals through Friday @ 7PM:
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:03 pm to tgrbaitn08
No one is off guard that I know. Not sure where you get your high storm surge either
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:03 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:
and where exactly are you seeing this?
Well, they are saying 8"-12" right now, I'm PeeJing that number will increase
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:04 pm to CypressTrout10
I don't think after August that anyone in South. LA is off guard when it comes to flooding.
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:06 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
anyone remember Tropical Storm Allison?
yep... was discussing it about 5-10 pages back
Posted on 6/20/17 at 1:07 pm to musick
quote:
I don't think after August that anyone in South. LA is off guard when it comes to flooding.
you would have thought that after Katrina as well
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