re: Tornado! Watches for Portions of N. Louisiana and Mississippi

It's not but there's still the questions of how much instability will be there per the discussion. Storms firing ahead of the best dynamics keeping the surface from getting a full dose of daytime heating. Those sorts of details will be clearer in the coming days.

Last weekend was a good reminder to remember the threat and pay attention to the warnings coming in.

SPC Convective Outlook for Saturday

quote:

---

At this point, it appears that widespread ongoing/initially elevated thunderstorms will spread east/east-northeast out of Oklahoma/Kansas, across the Ozarks and into the mid and lower Mississippi Valley through the morning/early afternoon. Storms should become increasingly surface-based as low-level theta-e advection occurs, but degree of destabilization will largely be modulated substantially by the ongoing thunderstorms. Where the airmass can remain unperturbed into the afternoon, strong deep-layer shear anticipated across the region would support strong/organized updrafts, and thus risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. At this time, the most likely axis where conditions may become most favorable for a more substantial severe risk appears to exist from the Mississippi Delta region, east-northeast across northern Mississippi and parts of western Tennessee, and into the Tennessee Valley/northwest Alabama. However, with any corridors of higher risk dependent upon details with respect to the evolution of the storms, will refrain from introducing any 30% probability contours at this time.

---

quote:

---

Whats the latest outlook on BR/NO on Saturday evening?

---

Trending the right direction. Might get a little bit of bad stuff overnight into Sunday with the trailing cold front, but the best dynamics are well north of us. More of a north Louisiana threat but even then it doesn't look especially impressive with surface based instability sitting around 700 j/kg off the NAM sounding.

Just keeping an eye on it now.

quote:

---

I am actually more concerned about Tues/Wed as there will be a legit squall line moving through N.TX into NW/LA that has more severe potential than this weekend.

---

That system looks to be a little stronger and strengthens some as it moves up toward the lakes. Certainly worth keeping an eye on. It's not showing up on the SPC's 4-8 day outlook but it's because of uncertainty in the evolution. The 12z GFS does show a primed environment for NE Texas with that system.

First few tornado warnings just went off.

That’s just the tornado product. The categorical convective outlook still captures those areas:

Two possible SE of Little Rock.