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re: The Great Flood of 2016: Fill Out Disaster Forms NOW. Link Inside!

Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:44 pm to
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42632 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:44 pm to
Really hard to understand.

And what's even worse is how many 100 year floods we have.

I bought a home in SE EBR in the 70s. How many floods have we seen since then which rivaled of surpassed the 1977 flood?

I think this term "100 year flood" gives people a false sense of security and can impact sound financial decisions as well as immediate decisions such as when to evacuate, etc.

We were told that the 77 flood was one in a 100 years, 1983 was one in 500 years and now we have this one which made the 77 flood look like a baby.

Could we see worse? I think we can especially if we had s strong SE fetch from the GOM holding up the outflow of the Amite River.

Will we? I think I won't but every 30 years or so it seems to get worse as we pour more concrete.
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
17684 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:44 pm to
The captions listening to some of the interviews on the news are hilarious. The captions literally just said, "Yaw Bogan Douchebag Yaw Yaw"
Posted by Jarlaxle
Calimport
Member since Dec 2010
2876 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:45 pm to
radio just said they are asking people in Sorrento to leave.
Posted by lsu mike
Gonzales
Member since Sep 2006
8580 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:45 pm to
We good on this side of Gonzales. No threat of flooding around here.
Posted by JAP
st. rose
Member since Oct 2008
110 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:46 pm to
Thanks
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
46727 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:47 pm to
What if u are coming the other way from Walker to Madisonville?
Posted by BayouBengals18
Fort Worth
Member since Jan 2009
9843 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:49 pm to
Thanks. My brother is coming down from Jackson to get his wife's uncle. He's been stuck on the second floor of Boardwalk Place in Denham for a few days and they finally got him to a shelter in Walker.
Posted by supernovasky
Member since Jul 2012
588 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:50 pm to
Despite the really shitty circumstance, you guys are fun to hang out with. I need to post here more often.
Posted by supernovasky
Member since Jul 2012
588 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:51 pm to
Sucks too because I'm moving to Pittsburgh or Fort Collins in a month.
Posted by Droplinebacker
Member since Jan 2004
890 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:51 pm to
super, u around?
Posted by gumbeaux
Member since Jun 2004
5327 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:51 pm to
A 100 year flood or a 500 year flood can happen in any given year. All it means is that a 100 year flood has a1% chance and a 500 year flood has a 0.2% chance of happening in any given year. They can occur in consecutive years or multiple times a year.

And you are right, the more concrete and asphalt the more runoff.
Posted by supernovasky
Member since Jul 2012
588 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:53 pm to
Hi Drop.
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
46727 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:54 pm to
Can anybody answer my question about I-12 because I can't tell from that fricking map?
Posted by supernovasky
Member since Jul 2012
588 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:54 pm to
Good job on explaining the flood terminology. One thing on the poster said though, I agree with. It's easy to see how flooding could be worse than this. An Allison type system that stays around for 10 days would be brutal.
Posted by biggsc
Member since Mar 2009
34777 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:54 pm to
No problem
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21523 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

Really hard to understand.

And what's even worse is how many 100 year floods we have.

I bought a home in SE EBR in the 70s. How many floods have we seen since then which rivaled of surpassed the 1977 flood?

I think this term "100 year flood" gives people a false sense of security and can impact sound financial decisions as well as immediate decisions such as when to evacuate, etc.

We were told that the 77 flood was one in a 100 years, 1983 was one in 500 years and now we have this one which made the 77 flood look like a baby.

Could we see worse? I think we can especially if we had s strong SE fetch from the GOM holding up the outflow of the Amite River.

Will we? I think I won't but every 30 years or so it seems to get worse as we pour more concrete.


The term "100 year" flood is really a misrepresentation of the stats that NOAA uses. The numbers really mean that there is a 1 in 100 chance of an event happening in a given year. People have some how turned that to "100 year" flood. Stats can be tricky but you can get 3 or 4 1 in 100 events during a short period. Then you many not see it again for 500 years. Another problem with this, the data set that we use just isn't very large when compared to the relevant age of areas.
Posted by BayouBengals18
Fort Worth
Member since Jan 2009
9843 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:56 pm to
Thanks for all the info super. I was able to keep some family members informed on what to expect with all your info Saturday night/Sunday morning. One stayed completely dry, and the other three all got water up to their porches, but none in their houses. I live right outside Nola, and both my parents lost houses in Katrina, and I feel for these people. I have a couple friends in DS that may have lost everything, they know they got water, just don't know how much.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42632 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:56 pm to
quote:

A 100 year flood or a 500 year flood can happen in any given year. All it means is that a 100 year flood has a1% chance and a 500 year flood has a 0.2% chance of happening in any given year. They can occur in consecutive years or multiple times a year


They told us all that in the 80s, but I think they are off.

It's possible sure but improbable.

I think the politicians, developers and real estate agents fudge the numbers. Who would buy property that floods four or five times in 50 years?
Posted by grape nutz
sesame street
Member since Mar 2006
3979 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:57 pm to
This is what Ive wondered many times. What if that 3 day rain which caused this continued for a couple weeks which I think is plausible in S LA.
Posted by Tiger2287
Member since Jan 2016
401 posts
Posted on 8/15/16 at 4:58 pm to
Last dry but of road got covered up in the back of lakes of st.amant
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