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re: The Great Flood of 2016: Fill Out Disaster Forms NOW. Link Inside!
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:10 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:10 pm to Jim Rockford
Amite at French Settlement is now 9.07. Its
just bouncing around.
just bouncing around.
1
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:10 pm to supernovasky
Nova, There are concerns about the road/levee at Alligator Bayou washing out and releasing a ton of water. Where would the water flow in your opinion?
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:11 pm to papasmurf1269
O Neal was still holding water on the other side of Old Hammond
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:13 pm to Impotent Waffle
That's great news Impotent. A lot of people have thanked me but honestly I didn't put my arse on the line driving around in the flooding. You deserve a lot of credit.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:13 pm to gumbeaux
I think people in the thread understand the meaning of the 100 year flood, but it's a terrible name, particularly when you often have less that 100 years of valid data to even study.
People just need to know the likelihood of in their area in simpler terms than a 100 year flood. If you've had 3 100-year events in 40 years, maybe they're not really 100 year events. The likelihood of 3 or more events in 40 years is roughly three quarters of a percent.
People just need to know the likelihood of in their area in simpler terms than a 100 year flood. If you've had 3 100-year events in 40 years, maybe they're not really 100 year events. The likelihood of 3 or more events in 40 years is roughly three quarters of a percent.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:13 pm to supernovasky
quote:
Fun fact - for an event that has a 1/100 chance of occurring, like a 100 year flood, any location on earth is 26% likely to experience such a flood 2 times in 100 years and 8% likely to experience it 3 or more times.
Yea, not talking down, but most people just don't understand how stats work. Even in the sciences, a lot of the scientist and engs that I work with don't truly understand them. I always tell my interns and Fellows to make sure that they take their stats and/or modeling game up a notch in grad school.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:14 pm to lsu1987
lsu1987 - every hour that passes that water does not collect in the area is one more hour of higher probability of absolute safety. The crest has passed and honestly, these levees generally fail when the crest is approaching. Every second that passes is less stress on them now.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:16 pm to supernovasky
Information: I just passed from 157 to 429 to Chester Diaz to 74 to get back to Old Dutchtown and the New River splits and Smith Bayou are all off of their highs in that area. Waters are a few from the road at the closest now. We've been very dry in the OD sub.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:17 pm to papasmurf1269
quote:
O Neal was still holding water on the other side of Old Hammond
I'm gonna try to go to the shop in the morning.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:17 pm to rds dc
In 1983 I went through s 1 in 500 year flood and now 32+ years later I go through a much bigger flood.
What were the percentages that this would happen?
What were the percentages that this would happen?
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:18 pm to sherrifftaylor
quote:You think I should go too?
I'm gonna try to go to the shop in the morning.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:18 pm to rds dc
I made sure to seriously put some work into learning stats in my grad program and now I do it for a living, so I get you. Honestly to match the publics definition, we should really define 100 year floods as floods with a 1/500 chance of happening. Such a flood is 99.9% likely to happen 1 or fewer times every 100 years.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:21 pm to lsu1987
quote:
Nova, There are concerns about the road/levee at Alligator Bayou washing out and releasing a ton of water. Where would the water flow in your opinion?
That's the area I'm concerned about. I think it would fill up most of the land in between Manchac Rd and Hwy 30. Basically all of East Iberville up to the railroad tracks. I think the UClub would be alright but everything downstream would be screwed (including me and my parents).
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:21 pm to Jarlaxle
quote:I've been asking this for years.
radio just said they are asking people in Sorrento to leave.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:22 pm to supernovasky
So what's the potential impact if the alligator bayou levee failed? What direction will this water go?
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:22 pm to doubleb
Interestingly enough, the chances of two or more 500 year level events in 33 years is roughly the same as the chance of a 500 year level event in any given year - .202% to .2%.
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:23 pm to papasmurf1269
quote:
O Neal was still holding water on the other side of Old Hammond
Towards I-12 or Florida?
Can one get to Florida & ONeal?
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:24 pm to papasmurf1269
Just heard o Neal at 12 west is open
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:24 pm to Jim Rockford
Land use planning is for parishes to decide. Most let developers rule the roost. They could stop it, put infrastructure requirements in ( beyond the basics) but they don't.
Ascension Parish infrastructure reminds me of when I was a child in Lafayette Parish c. late 60s. (Not that Lft puts a foot down on developers- they don't; but they do build infrastructure).
Ascension Parish infrastructure reminds me of when I was a child in Lafayette Parish c. late 60s. (Not that Lft puts a foot down on developers- they don't; but they do build infrastructure).
Posted on 8/15/16 at 5:24 pm to tke857
Oak Grove primary got no water for anyone with kids who cares about that.
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