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The futurist stories are fun to read: "It won't be pretty"

Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:10 am
Posted by Bjorn Cyborg
Member since Sep 2016
36575 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:10 am
Warning: Vanity Fair

While I certainly agree that we will face some changes, I think the job loss will be overblown. This same article touts the jobs created by new technology, while making dire predictions that future technology won't create jobs.


quote:

technological changes that would take place over the next century would be more rapid-fire than the technological changes that had taken place over the past 20,000 years.



quote:


According to one study by researchers at Oxford Economics, robots will likely take over 20 million manufacturing jobs around the globe by 2030 alone. A McKinsey report in 2017 was much more dire, predicting the loss of as many as 800 million jobs globally by 2030. It isn’t just truck drivers and pizza delivery people who will be replaced by artificial intelligence algorithms; the carnage will hit every career imaginable.

Accountants might be the first to go. Lawyers who aren’t on the bench, who create legal documents, could be next. Journalists who write the sports stories or Wall Street updates are easily replaced by a bit of machine learning. Actors will be replaced by CGI versions. Netflix will be able to create 50 editions of a single show with characters who are black or white, Asian or African, young or old, depending on the demographics they’re trying to reach.
Posted by King George
Member since Dec 2013
6118 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:11 am to
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:12 am to
quote:

Actors will be replaced by CGI versions


Already being done. Princess Leia leading the rebellion from beyond the grave.
Posted by theunknownknight
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
61326 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:13 am to
quote:

Princess Leia leading the rebellion from beyond the grave.


Unused footage from TLJ/TFA. Not CGI (for the most part)
This post was edited on 1/6/20 at 11:14 am
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
135035 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:14 am to
quote:

Netflix will be able to create 50 editions of a single show with characters who are black or white, Asian or African, young or old, depending on the demographics they’re trying to reach.


This is trying to suggest that a pallete swap is all that differs between us
Posted by Sidicous
NELA
Member since Aug 2015
19296 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:15 am to
quote:


Actors will be replaced by CGI versions



Already being done. Princess Leia leading the rebellion from beyond the grave.
Maybe this will finally put an end to Awards Shows and the near illiterates pontificating on all things political and sociological.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:19 am to
while true, it will be used as a launching point.

The technology is there. I give it 10 years before actors are being told to learn to code.
Posted by Harry Caray
Denial
Member since Aug 2009
21045 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:27 am to
quote:

Netflix will be able to create 50 editions of a single show with characters who are black or white, Asian or African, young or old, depending on the demographics they’re trying to reach.
Wait until this guy hears about cartoons
Posted by CAD703X
Liberty Island
Member since Jul 2008
94693 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:43 am to
quote:

This is trying to suggest that a pallete swap is all that differs between us


i like a sweater vest, some prefer a suicide vest. we're not so different.
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
42759 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:49 am to
quote:

technological changes that would take place over the next century would be more rapid-fire than the technological changes that had taken place over the past 20,000 years.


This is true

Just think of materials science advancement?
How long between wood to stone?
Stone to copper?
Copper to bronze?
Bronze to iron?
Iron to steel?

Now think of computer technologies?

More and more innovations are coming and at much more rapid paces
This post was edited on 1/6/20 at 11:51 am
Posted by Overbrook
Member since May 2013
6419 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:49 am to
Historically, new tech has created more jobs than it replaced. But there's no assurance that that is inevitable in the future.
On the other hand, with new technology, we should be able to take care of people efficiently. Amidst the howls of "socialism" (which is government ownership of business, not social programs - ahem) we'll have to do that.
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
42759 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:52 am to
quote:

we should be able to take care of people efficiently. Amidst the howls of "socialism" (which is government ownership of business, not social programs - ahem) we'll have to do that.


Why does “we” always mean the government? Why can’t it be charities, churches, non-profits, and the like?
Posted by fallguy_1978
Best States #50
Member since Feb 2018
53819 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 11:54 am to
I always find these articles to be a bit sensationalized and overblown. Kind of like the ones that say the planet will be inhabitable in 15 years.
This post was edited on 1/6/20 at 11:54 am
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40997 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

Kind of like the ones that say the planet will be inhabitable in 15 years.


I'm dead?
Posted by tigahbruh
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2014
2864 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 12:22 pm to
Periodical writers are a a dime a million. In order to get published, much less paid decently, you have to generate clicks and maximize ad revenue.
People don't click on articles with headlines like, "The world will continue to run much the same as it always has."
It might be accurate, but it won't generate revenue or help compete against other half-baked, sensationalist sites and articles.
This post was edited on 1/6/20 at 12:24 pm
Posted by TheCaterpillar
Member since Jan 2004
76774 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 12:26 pm to
Someone has to make and program the robots and provide maintenance. It’s just different jobs.
Posted by Apollyon
Member since Dec 2019
2124 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 12:28 pm to
Do you even Grand Moff Tarkin, Bro?
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40997 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

Someone has to make and program the robots and provide maintenance. It’s just different jobs.


The theory would be AI robots would be smart enough to maintain the robots and develop new versions. That's the paradigm shift from creative destruction.

If that ever happens is certainly interesting.
This post was edited on 1/6/20 at 12:46 pm
Posted by TigerFanInSouthland
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2012
28065 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 1:13 pm to
Meh, we’re due for a civilization reset. All it takes is a few bad decisions and I bet we won’t have to worry about AI takin our jobs.
Posted by Norbert
Member since Oct 2018
3767 posts
Posted on 1/6/20 at 1:24 pm to
It's always easier to predict which jobs will be lost than it is to predict which jobs will be created.

20 years ago, if you said that hundreds of thousands of people would become taxi drivers using their cell phones, people would've laughed at you.

And you'd have become a billionaire for making it happen.
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