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re: The Curve Has Been Flattened Then What
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:52 am to Catchfalaya
Posted on 3/29/20 at 10:52 am to Catchfalaya
I think it’s a result of fear and turning this into a political deal by a lot of people. Our society is so accustomed to things being pretty close to perfect that when something like this happens, people freak out and get scared, and start making illogical decisions and opinions on what to do during a crisis.
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Posted on 3/29/20 at 11:29 am to Catchfalaya
I am also concerned about what happens when small business owners and employees say F it, we are going back to work regardless of what the gub’ment says.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 11:39 am to The Boat
its going to make things worse then they would have been if you just let it take its course
just like FDR's New Deal made the Great Depression last years longer than it should have
Posted on 3/29/20 at 11:41 am to ell_13
quote:
People also thought “flattening the curve” meant that people would stop dying or that it would save the people who were going to die from this anyway.
Yeah, it's to spread it out. And to save people who would be impacted by overwhelmed ICUs.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 11:57 am to mdomingue
quote:
Yeah, it's to spread it out. And to save people who would be impacted by overwhelmed ICUs.
How is it being spread out when the vast majority of everyone is at home?
Even a dumbarse can see there will likely be a huge spike once everything opens again.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:05 pm to ell_13
quote:
People also thought “flattening the curve” meant that people would stop dying or that it would save the people who were going to die from this anyway.
Umm, no. I am a middle-grounder here, so no axe to grind. But I’ve never read that anywhere. The Imperial College study was the one that drove the decision making. It assumed 100’s of thousands dead in the USA even if we distanced.
Maybe you can find a few dozen loons who thought we could prevent deaths by distancing, but there are also loons who thought this was just the flu.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:16 pm to MoarKilometers
quote:
Secondary spike is obviously the next thing to happen.
I doubt it. Probably won’t be one. Likely an increase, but nothing resembling a spike. There is something fishy going on with this virus. Maybe there’s a minority of the population that has a propensity to catch it. That would explain why some countries have been able to control it without extreme distancing and without a second spike. Maybe half the people with the propensity to get it already have had it? Not enough feed stock to keep the fire burning?
Otherwise we’re forced to believe that the S Koreans and Japanese have super human ability to track and quarantine. I’m just not buying that.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:18 pm to sanora
quote:
Lmao
Stop watching Fox News
I don’t watch foxnews, but the damage to the economy is enormous, and we’ll be suffering under that for years - and that’s even if we can restart tomorrow!
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:20 pm to Catchfalaya
with a flattening and subsequent decrease, youll see certain areas slowly reopen.
What should probably happen ASAP is antibody testing on a massive scale so we can send those people back out working like normal
What should probably happen ASAP is antibody testing on a massive scale so we can send those people back out working like normal
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:22 pm to Penrod
quote:it's possible a certain section is immune, antibody testing might tell us that but we dont know yet.
Maybe there’s a minority of the population that has a propensity to catch it.
Would be nice to ramp that up so if it turns out a ton of people are immune to it, they can get back out there
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:26 pm to Pilot Tiger
quote:
Would be nice to ramp that up
Weird that we don’t have data available on that. They must be testing and developing models based on it.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:37 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Even a dumbarse can see there will likely be a huge spike once everything opens again.
Let’s say capacity is 1000 beds (totally made up)- would you prefer a couple rolling spikes to 800 hospitalized, or a main spike of 1500 at the same time needing beds/vents?
Posted on 3/29/20 at 12:38 pm to Catchfalaya
We should have rapid testing by then to quickly quarantine those needed and hopefully enough masks for the general public to wear. This won’t be a popular post right now but that is what would help
the most to get us back going IMO (other than successful treatments and/or vaccination).
the most to get us back going IMO (other than successful treatments and/or vaccination).
This post was edited on 3/29/20 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 3/29/20 at 1:00 pm to Catchfalaya
With the limited testing, none of the numbers mean much to me.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 1:06 pm to Catchfalaya
Flattening the curve simply keeps medical resources from being strained beyond capacity - - thus buying time for vaccine to o be developed. That is it
Posted on 3/29/20 at 1:09 pm to jimbeam
quote:
“If it saves one life.”
Posted on 3/29/20 at 1:47 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
Ideally, once we’re sitting “flat” with real time testing available and production of PPE, medical equipment, and meds in full swing and able to keep up, we start to open the economy back up.
Anyone who really wants to see things shifting back toward normal in April should hope Trump/Federal government is absolutely flooding NYC with supplies/ventilators with unprecedented speed.
If people start watching a disaster unfold in NY on par with Northern Italy --hospitals packed into hallways of severely sick people propped up on cafeteria chairs, doctors letting patients suffocate due to shortages of respirators etc etc -- there's not going to be many people for re-opening much of anything anywhere.
If they can show that necessary medical supplies and staff were overabundant to deal with a near "worst case" scenario in NYC without an Italian-level death rate, more people will feel that we can control this to a degree without total lock downs.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 2:29 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
How is it being spread out when the vast majority of everyone is at home?
All sorts of folks are still out and about. Everybody still shops for food etc. It's just lessened the constant exposure we have to each other. so the spike yo see now is likely to be the worst plus we are pushing toward warmer weather which will slow down less direct spread from contaminated surface contact (like doorknobs).
quote:
Even a dumbarse can see there will likely be a huge spike once everything opens again
Dumarses have a way of thinking they see something that isn't really what ends up happening. But they'll surely crow about the one in ten they get right.
I, for one, do not feel like I know enough to make a call as to what will actually happen.
Posted on 3/29/20 at 2:38 pm to Catchfalaya
It's an interesting question, because you've got governor's announcing month long shutdowns over 90 hospitalizations and 2 deaths. If that is the threshold for a month long shutdown then I don't know how we ever move forward.
The federal government needs to come out with clearer guidelines for the states to follow that allow healthy people to work unless there's a rapidly escalating outbreak like NYC or NOLA
The federal government needs to come out with clearer guidelines for the states to follow that allow healthy people to work unless there's a rapidly escalating outbreak like NYC or NOLA
Posted on 3/29/20 at 2:47 pm to MusclesofBrussels
quote:
It's an interesting question, because you've got governor's announcing month long shutdowns over 90 hospitalizations and 2 deaths. If that is the threshold for a month long shutdown then I don't know how we ever move forward.
Like I was saying above, the way the federal government can best respond is by showing we are up to the task of dealing with this in urban areas like NYC/NOLA etc.
They're not going to convince enough people we should open more things back up if everyone sees NYC plummet into something like Northern Italy over the next 2 weeks. No way.
On the other hand, if NYC can handle this with organized and rapid Federal support of medical necessities without Italian level death rates, people will have LOT more confidence it can be handled in less populated areas without near lockdowns to keep numbers low.
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