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re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:14 am to Vinny V
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:14 am to Vinny V
River flooding, mainly. Trees are an issue, especially the pines. Ain't saying this will be Katrina but Katrina dropped a lot of trees around here. Smelled like pine sap after. Completely changed tree line.
0
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:14 am to TheRouxGuru
quote:
I assume you have a vehicle reliable enough to take on the the interstate
Easily, with many route options
quote:
You don’t worry about flooding or tornadoes??
My house won’t flood, and it’s a brick house with protected rooms on the first floor, would have to be a pretty damn big tornado
quote:
Stranded how? You lost me here.
Katrina evacs people were running out of gas on the side of the road.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:14 am to JW6
quote:
No reason to leave in northshore area huh?
If it stays on the current track, no. Our biggest issue will be flooding and tornado potential.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:14 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Yep. Almost exactly. Wife was counting last weeks of her pregnancy with twins when Gustav came through. They are turning 13 in October.
yeah it's been what? 13 years since Gustav?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:15 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
strong Cat 4 making landfall even though it initializes 5-6 mb weaker than reality when the run starts
This is not what I wanted to wake up to this morning, but I knew yesterday's trend of weakening runs was too good to be true.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:15 am to Dire Wolf
They’re going to be a lot of trees uprooted in south LA. With as much rain as we have had this year, the ground has stayed completely saturated.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:15 am to HouseMom
quote:
In the Houston area, the muddled flight from the city killed almost as many people as Rita did. an estimated 2.5 million people hit the road ahead of the storm’s arrival, creating some of the most insane gridlock in U.S. history. More than 100 evacuees died in the exodus. Drivers waited in traffic for 20-plus hours, and heat stroke impaired or killed dozens. Fights broke out on the highway. A bus carrying nursing home evacuees caught fire, and 24 died.
We don't have the Katrina panic to cause the entire city of Houston to leave. I drove into the storm, it was so stupid.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:17 am to UpToPar
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:18 am to Dire Wolf
I believe this is Jeff Masters.
quote:
Morning update from Jeff:
Hurricane Watches are in effect for the US Gulf coast from Cameron, LA to the MS/AL border
Storm surge watch is in effect from Sabine Pass TX to the AL/FL line.
A significant hurricane event is likely over SE LA into coastal MS late this weekend.
Discussion:
Surface observations from the Cayman Islands indicate that Ida is starting to intensify this morning with a surface pressure recorded at Grand Cayman of 1003mb. USAF mission will be in Ida shortly to asses the structural and intensity changes overnight. Radar data shows increased banding to the north and east of the center this morning and a better consolidation of deep convection near and over the center. Ida continues to move NW and will approach and cross west-central Cuba later today.
Track:
Ida is continuing to move toward the NW around 13-14mph along the SW edge of a deep layer ridge of high pressure over the SW ATL just off the US SE coast. The forecast track reasoning is fairly straight forward as Ida will round the western side of this ridge over the next 48 hours and approach the US Gulf coast late this weekend. Guidance track aides remain fairly tightly clustered on a landfall along the SC or SE LA coast by midday Sunday into Sunday night. Confidence is now high that Ida will landfall along this portion of the Gulf coast this weekend.
Intensity:
Ida is undergoing a bit of SW shear this morning due to a trough of low pressure to the W and NW of the system, but conditions will continue to improve and once Ida closely off an inner core a rapid rate of intensification is expected over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Intensity guidance continues to bring a significant major hurricane to the US Gulf coast and NHC now brings Ida to 115mph at landfall Sunday afternoon. The NHC intensity forecast is on the lower end of the intensity spectrum and Ida could be stronger than currently forecast at landfall.
The wind field of Ida is likely to expand over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and this will drive a significant, far reaching, and life threatening storm surge across much of SE LA and coastal MS. This also indicates that tropical storm force winds will likely begin to arrive along the coast by Sunday morning…so there is about 48 hours of preparation time and that window is going to close quickly.
Impacts:
Significant hurricane impacts are likely over SC and SE LA into coastal MS late this weekend into Monday. Storm surge forecasts of 7-11 feet above the ground is likely over the vulnerable SE LA and coastal MS outside of the hurricane protection systems. Widespread hurricane force winds are likely across much of SE LA including metro New Orleans and into coastal MS.
Local Impacts:
Seas will build into the 8-12 foot range by Sunday into Monday along the upper TX coast and this will result in wave run-up along the Gulf facing beaches. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tides Sunday into Monday with total water levels in the 3.0-3.5 foot range possible.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:18 am to Vinny V
quote:
Just moved to mandeville right off of I-12 a couple months ago. What’s it like over here for a storm
Neighbors!
Bingo!
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:18 am to Dire Wolf
Fire wood sellers can't catch a break down here.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:18 am to PurpleGoldTiger
Friendly reminder Hwy 90 is down to 1 lane crossing the river in Morgan City.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:18 am to rds dc
So at this point I should assume my flight out of MSY on Wednesday isn’t going to happen? 
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:19 am to Ingeniero
70 mph extrapolated surface winds found (77 mph flight level).
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:20 am to GEAUXmedic
Well frick me.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:20 am to sec13rowBBseat28
quote:
They’re going to be a lot of trees uprooted in south LA. With as much rain as we have had this year, the ground has stayed completely saturated.
This would only apply for young trees and the current soil moisture maps don’t agree with your theory
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:20 am to GEAUXmedic
Just opinions but what kind of wind is Slidell looking at with landfall?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:21 am to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
I'm driving from Shreveport to Florida tomorrow. Probably be through BR around 11 am. I'm wondering if that route is a good idea now. Thoughts on traffic, possibilities of contra-flow evacuations? Better to leave east out of Shreveport?
Is this a real question?
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:21 am to Vinny V
quote:
Just moved to mandeville right off of I-12 a couple months ago. What’s it like over here for a storm
Sunshine and rainbows.
Honestly, depending on what hood you are in you could see some minor street flooding. You will lose power but it is usually restored within 24 hours.
Posted on 8/27/21 at 8:22 am to Ed Osteen
Wait is this thing making landfall Saturday night now or am I misinterpreting?
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