- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
0
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:37 am to purpleleaf
Spann's daily dose of common sense.
TOPIC: TROPICS: Gaston finally achieved hurricane status this morning in the Central Atlantic; it will recurve over open water and is no threat to land.
The most curious feature remains “Invest 99L”, which is near Hispaniola. I would suggest this might be the most discussed open tropical wave in history thanks to social media and some clickbait sites.
Screen Shot 2016-08-25 at 6.15.10 AM
Here is the latest…
*A NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating 99L early this morning; we will know more about the structure of the system soon.
*Until we get a well defined low level circulation center, computer models will struggle with initializing the system, and model output will remain suspect. However, there is pretty decent agreement among tropical and global models this morning.
*The wave will move up toward the Florida peninsula, and whether it stays an open wave, or becomes a depression or storm, the main impact initially will be the threat of heavy rain over the weekend for Central and South Florida.
*Most models turn the wave northward east of Alabama, keeping the main rain shield over Florida and Georgia.
AL99_current
*Should the center stay over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this could indeed grow stronger, perhaps to hurricane strength. But, if the center remains over the Florida Peninsula, it will be mainly a big rain-maker.
*Please understand great uncertainty remains, so keep up with current blog discussions and info from NHC. All of this could change.
TOPIC: TROPICS: Gaston finally achieved hurricane status this morning in the Central Atlantic; it will recurve over open water and is no threat to land.
The most curious feature remains “Invest 99L”, which is near Hispaniola. I would suggest this might be the most discussed open tropical wave in history thanks to social media and some clickbait sites.
Screen Shot 2016-08-25 at 6.15.10 AM
Here is the latest…
*A NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating 99L early this morning; we will know more about the structure of the system soon.
*Until we get a well defined low level circulation center, computer models will struggle with initializing the system, and model output will remain suspect. However, there is pretty decent agreement among tropical and global models this morning.
*The wave will move up toward the Florida peninsula, and whether it stays an open wave, or becomes a depression or storm, the main impact initially will be the threat of heavy rain over the weekend for Central and South Florida.
*Most models turn the wave northward east of Alabama, keeping the main rain shield over Florida and Georgia.
AL99_current
*Should the center stay over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this could indeed grow stronger, perhaps to hurricane strength. But, if the center remains over the Florida Peninsula, it will be mainly a big rain-maker.
*Please understand great uncertainty remains, so keep up with current blog discussions and info from NHC. All of this could change.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:38 am to thebhamdawgfan
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:41 am to tke857
I don't like those odds.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:44 am to tke857
I'd be pretty surprised if it threads the needle like majority of those models are saying.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:51 am to TheriotAF
I just don't get where these models are seeing it's going to make a sharp turn like that...the conditions for it moving far west have been negative for awhile now outside what some models are seeing. The problem is I don't know what they're seeing? Anyone care to explain?
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 11:52 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:51 am to bamarep
quote:
If the eye is anywhere near that size, wherever it hits won't be there when it leaves.
Meh, the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin also has the smallest eye ever recorded at 2.3 miles across.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:51 am to TheriotAF
The margin of error for this storm is crazy. Hopefully we get more clarification soon.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:51 am to TheriotAF
I am starting to wonder if the GFS is partially right and the Euro is partially right. GFS is right that nothing will come of this and conditions will be horrible for development all the way to land and Euro on track. The GFS has caved on the westward track but it still says nothing will develop. Let's see if the Euro now backs way off on intensity.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:53 am to dukke v
quote:
You are spot on.... Storms can mature at a rapid rate of the conditions are right. If this thing gets any kind of life and crosses over the southern tip of Florida, watch out. Now it depends on what will come along and steer the system.
I say this with all due respect and I mean allll due respect.
Shut the frick up.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:53 am to dukke v
quote:
You are spot on....
quote:
dukke v
Thanks for the vote of confidence.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:53 am to thebhamdawgfan
Says this...
Then says all this...
quote:
Until we get a well defined low level circulation center, computer models will struggle with initializing the system, and model output will remain suspect.
Then says all this...
quote:
The wave will move up toward the Florida peninsula, and whether it stays an open wave, or becomes a depression or storm, the main impact initially will be the threat of heavy rain over the weekend for Central and South Florida.
*Most models turn the wave northward east of Alabama, keeping the main rain shield over Florida and Georgia.
AL99_current
*Should the center stay over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this could indeed grow stronger, perhaps to hurricane strength. But, if the center remains over the Florida Peninsula, it will be mainly a big rain-maker.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:54 am to X123F45
I'm of the opinion that there is a greater chance this thing goes poof than for it to do anything else at this point. It is really looking weak this afternoon. Almost nonexistent.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:55 am to thebhamdawgfan
quote:
The most curious feature remains “Invest 99L”, which is near Hispaniola. I would suggest this might be the most discussed open tropical wave in history thanks to social media and some clickbait sites.
James Spann lurks the OT.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:56 am to LSUfanNkaty
The ridge seems to be everything in where this storm goes but has it even showed any signs of helping western GOM outside a few computer models 5 days from now?
I'm sorry Florida but you guys have to take this one on the chin. It's far less likely to effect y'all over there and most likely will not be a very strong storm if at all while if tracks westward towards Louisiana it's probably going to be a hurricane and regardless, catastrophic wherever it hits in LA. Even if it hit on the far eastern end in the state the debris out in the streets is ridiculous and the ground is so saturated now I can't imagine what that will do. If we were in a deep drought this summer and that low moved over us when it flooded you'd probably see river levels 6ft or less the rain we got because the ground was so dry. This is like the absolute worst time for a storm to even get anywhere near LA and that's including it never sitting around LA for very long. SE LA is awful at ever weakening these systems anyway due to the terrain.
It's like the perfect storm of frick you this year when it comes to natural disasters in Louisiana so excuse me if I stay pessimistic on this system. It seems like it has rain every fricking day here since the flood even if it's just an afternoon/evening shower...
I'm sorry Florida but you guys have to take this one on the chin. It's far less likely to effect y'all over there and most likely will not be a very strong storm if at all while if tracks westward towards Louisiana it's probably going to be a hurricane and regardless, catastrophic wherever it hits in LA. Even if it hit on the far eastern end in the state the debris out in the streets is ridiculous and the ground is so saturated now I can't imagine what that will do. If we were in a deep drought this summer and that low moved over us when it flooded you'd probably see river levels 6ft or less the rain we got because the ground was so dry. This is like the absolute worst time for a storm to even get anywhere near LA and that's including it never sitting around LA for very long. SE LA is awful at ever weakening these systems anyway due to the terrain.
It's like the perfect storm of frick you this year when it comes to natural disasters in Louisiana so excuse me if I stay pessimistic on this system. It seems like it has rain every fricking day here since the flood even if it's just an afternoon/evening shower...
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:03 pm to The Pirate King
The Euro has been pretty steady on the development of this system through Saturday... ever since it started to go bullish on the wave (the 21/1200z and 22/0000z runs) it's been insistent that it doesn't develop into a storm until Saturday. The 00z run bumps that development up to Friday night.. but that's about as locked in as a model is going to be for more than 72 hours.
What it does after that is a little more questionable, but but I still feel pretty confident that it's going to get into the Gulf in some form. That's about as far as I think we can forecast at this point, which is a timeframe through Monday.
Yeah, there's been a lot of swings that come after that point, but that's actually kind of normal for models.. even outside of the tropics. That's why it's important to reinforce that models are guidance and not forecasts, and should not be viewed as forecasts. It really grinds my gears when television meteorologists insist on showing models on air without providing that context.
What it does after that is a little more questionable, but but I still feel pretty confident that it's going to get into the Gulf in some form. That's about as far as I think we can forecast at this point, which is a timeframe through Monday.
Yeah, there's been a lot of swings that come after that point, but that's actually kind of normal for models.. even outside of the tropics. That's why it's important to reinforce that models are guidance and not forecasts, and should not be viewed as forecasts. It really grinds my gears when television meteorologists insist on showing models on air without providing that context.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:07 pm to BigB0882
If in 24 hrs it hasn't gotten itself together, that could be a pretty likely scenario. Who knows though. Just gotta sit back and wait.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:07 pm to thebhamdawgfan
The Spann post is basically outdated at this point with the current model trend.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:11 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
I can't wait for tonight during D-Max when everyone starts freaking out and saying this is blowing up again. 
Posted on 8/25/16 at 12:57 pm to baytiger
Is there a 1:00 update?
Page 72 of 175
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News