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Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:07 am to TSmith
If the eye is anywhere near that size, wherever it hits won't be there when it leaves.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:08 am to supernovasky
The bigger problem is this wet saturated soil + wind leads to a lot of trees coming down. Not a bridge worth crossing until we must.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:15 am to GEAUXmedic
A couple of noteworthy things. The LLC is actually approaching a bit of drier air near the Bahamas, we'll have to see what impact that has. Secondly, it seems as though, as of right now, the LLC is actually moving a little to fast for the rest of the wave to keep up.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:16 am to The Pirate King
quote:
From all satellite imagery so far, I don't see how anyone can predict this thing getting to big hurricane status unless it literally camps in gulf for a couple days on it's way to land.
Yeah it doesn't look very organized at all right now, but anyone alive since 2005 knows how these things can go. For the models that do suggest a GOM landfall, they're roughly 6 days away.
In 2005, Rita went from a tropical wave to a 180 mph Category 5 hurricane in less than 4.5 days.
In 5 days Katrina went from a wave to a 175 mph Category 5 hurricane, and it went through southern FL to boot.
I guess the point is that if we had a thread discussing Rita and Katrina this far out and in this same geographic area they wouldn't have been very impressive either. Just as no one should panic at this time, it shouldn't be completely disregarded either.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:17 am to Klark Kent
quote:
nice gif game
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:20 am to slackster
Fair enough. I deal in probability. I'm just saying the chances of the doomsday scenario are lower than low.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:21 am to supernovasky
quote:
Louisiana needs to not even get a whiff of this thing - I'm far more concerned with the rain it might bring than its strength.
As wet as the ground is, it won't take much to uproot large trees. Both intensity and rain would be catastrophic. This thing needs to head to mexico or turn right
This post was edited on 8/25/16 at 11:26 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:22 am to baytiger
quote:
oh no, people discussing something they find interesting on a message board! what ever shall we do!
Post boob pics or ask if this is trashy?
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:26 am to slackster
You are spot on.... Storms can mature at a rapid rate of the conditions are right. If this thing gets any kind of life and crosses over the southern tip of Florida, watch out. Now it depends on what will come along and steer the system.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:28 am to dukke v
quote:No fricking shite
Now it depends on what will come along and steer the system
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:28 am to rds dc
UKMET shifted west, pointing at LA. CMC big shift west, landfall at the Sabine River.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:29 am to The Pirate King
quote:
Fair enough. I deal in probability. I'm just saying the chances of the doomsday scenario are lower than low.
Exactly, that is why forecasting extreme events is so challenging.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:30 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Sabine
You racist.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:30 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
UKMET shifted west, pointing at LA. CMC big shift west, landfall at the Sabine River.
Should we just wait and all tune back in once this thing has a name and is in the gulf? Its playing with my emotions right now even though I know I shouldn't put stock into any models
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:31 am to dukke v
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/20/21 at 8:17 am
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:31 am to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:32 am to GEAUXmedic
GFS does absolutely nothing with 99L
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:33 am to rds dc
As much as I hate to say it, if this storm turns into a hurricane and hits any part of Louisiana, the attention from the rest of the country will actually be focused on us this time and will receive much more funding. However, like everyone else, F the attention and the funding. We don't need this storm.
Posted on 8/25/16 at 11:34 am to purpleleaf
quote:
don't get your panties in a wad Nancy.
my name is Jack Bauer and i will hunt you down boy!
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