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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:49 pm to Bestbank Tiger
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:49 pm to Bestbank Tiger
122 pages on a thunder storm 
7
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:49 pm to Jimmy2shoes
And a few pages on the days of the week
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:50 pm to tipup
The bottom line is that the storm is not going to hit us this weekend. It's going to hit next weekend. If it were to hit this weekend it would have to hit between now and midnight.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:50 pm to Jimmy2shoes
quote:
122 pages on a thunder storm
Oh, this again...
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:51 pm to Jimmy2shoes
I remember people saying that about Katrina after it passed over FLA too.
How many storms, named or not, will it take for people to treat these somewhat seriously? I'm not saying we run through the streets crying about them. I just think we shouldn't just outright dismiss them until they hit. That's retarded.
How many storms, named or not, will it take for people to treat these somewhat seriously? I'm not saying we run through the streets crying about them. I just think we shouldn't just outright dismiss them until they hit. That's retarded.
This post was edited on 8/28/16 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:53 pm to tgrbaitn08
Damn you're dumb....no offense.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:56 pm to theunknownknight
that's rich coming from you Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:56 pm to Jimmy2shoes
Yeah was said back on page 120.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 2:59 pm to Jimmy2shoes
quote:
122 pages on a thunder storm
How many pages did we have on the after affects of a some thunderstorms recently?
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:00 pm to Jimmy2shoes
quote:
122 pages on a thunder storm
Correct me if in wrong but didn't a thunderstorm just flood BR?
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:04 pm to tgrbaitn08
Bunch of pussies arguing semantics
I love the OT
I love the OT
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:04 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
Yeah I'd rather ere on the side of caution than like last time when no one had any warning whatsoever
ETA: this guy will be one of the first ones to say "why didn't anyone warn us??" and be standing in line for 2 hours Thursday night at Walmart trying to get supplies.
ETA: this guy will be one of the first ones to say "why didn't anyone warn us??" and be standing in line for 2 hours Thursday night at Walmart trying to get supplies.
This post was edited on 8/28/16 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:05 pm to Jimmy2shoes
quote:to be fair, about 50 pages are people like you coming in the start this "joke" and the resulting responses.
122 pages on a thunder storm
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:15 pm to The Pirate King
Couple things to update:
-Euro shows a weakened storm hitting somewhere in the panhandle/Nature Coast of FL, while HWRF shows a major hurricane taking the same path. Most models agreeable on the path currently, but still doesn't mean much. Regardless models are steering clear of saturated LA, and that's a good thing.
-For whatever reason the NOAA hurricane hunters appear to be intentionally avoiding the LLC, possibly because they are flying so low and deep convection keeps firing in the area. EDIT: after this post, the recon flight found and confirmed closed circulation. Chatter everywhere about this thing earning a TD or TS upgrade soon. EDIT 2: upgraded to TD9 at 4pm CST, 5pm EST
-With TD8 popping up off the east coast, if/when 99L gets classified it will be TD9. This means that if both storms reach TS status and receive names, 99L will actually be called Ian with the storm off the east coast becoming Hermine.
-This one is more of an unrelated observation/question to those that have been studying these for longer than me. This morning we saw swirling coming off the southern edge Gaston that appeared to just be an eddy, but is now gathering its own spin and building convection. Is this still considered an eddy off of Gaston or is it possible to become its own entity? You can see what I'm referring to just southwest of Gaston:
-Euro shows a weakened storm hitting somewhere in the panhandle/Nature Coast of FL, while HWRF shows a major hurricane taking the same path. Most models agreeable on the path currently, but still doesn't mean much. Regardless models are steering clear of saturated LA, and that's a good thing.
-For whatever reason the NOAA hurricane hunters appear to be intentionally avoiding the LLC, possibly because they are flying so low and deep convection keeps firing in the area. EDIT: after this post, the recon flight found and confirmed closed circulation. Chatter everywhere about this thing earning a TD or TS upgrade soon. EDIT 2: upgraded to TD9 at 4pm CST, 5pm EST
-With TD8 popping up off the east coast, if/when 99L gets classified it will be TD9. This means that if both storms reach TS status and receive names, 99L will actually be called Ian with the storm off the east coast becoming Hermine.
-This one is more of an unrelated observation/question to those that have been studying these for longer than me. This morning we saw swirling coming off the southern edge Gaston that appeared to just be an eddy, but is now gathering its own spin and building convection. Is this still considered an eddy off of Gaston or is it possible to become its own entity? You can see what I'm referring to just southwest of Gaston:
This post was edited on 8/28/16 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:19 pm to RazorBroncs
NHC has raised development probabilities to 60% over next 48 hours, 80% over the next 5 days.
From the NHC:
From the NHC:
quote:
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to
the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the
lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida
through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
This post was edited on 8/28/16 at 3:20 pm
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:33 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Close but not sure there will be an upgrade
ETA: Upgrade coming shortly
ETA: Upgrade coming shortly
This post was edited on 8/28/16 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:39 pm to rds dc
I feel like it can go either way to upgrade or not
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:39 pm to rds dc
Yeah, looks like they've found a closed circulation.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:41 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
NWS Shreveport Verified account ?@NWSShreveport 2m2 minutes ago
NWS Shreveport Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops
Invest 99L to become #TropicalDepression9.
NWS Shreveport Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops
Invest 99L to become #TropicalDepression9.
Posted on 8/28/16 at 3:42 pm to rds dc
quote:
Close but not sure there will be an upgrade
I don't think they will until the update late tonight or early tomorrow. Regardless it's well on its way to earning TD9 status soon, but I think they'll wait until it looks a little more organized (as far as the LLC). Of course, that's just my opinion and I am by no means an expert, just a weather hobbyist.
ETA- upgrade officially coming this afternoon
Next question: will it be Hermine, Ian, or neither? I'm putting the odds at 30% Hermine, 50% Ian, and 20% neither
This post was edited on 8/28/16 at 3:48 pm
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