re: Storm Tracking: Bertha - It's Over

Leaving Tuesday to bring the RV down to Gulf shores. How shitty is my week going to be?

I think this one over performs if it stays over water

Northeastern gulf is really warm, above average SSTs right now and very low shear environment

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of
America continues to become better defined and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued
gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely
to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly
northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor
the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required for portions of the area later today. In
addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions
of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Reminder that the GRAF, NAMs, and short range hi-res models aren't really useful at this point. Hurricane and global models are the best bet.

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I've only ever followed storms on here and dont recall a storm just form in the gulf rather than run the conveyor belt from CV. Is this really that common?

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Not common but not rare.

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I've only ever followed storms on here and dont recall a storm just form in the gulf rather than run the conveyor belt from CV. Is this really that common?

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Pretty standard for early season systems to have a genesis pathway that isn't the result of an AEW. That's one of the reasons they are often sloppy and slow to organize.

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Reminder that the GRAF, NAMs, and short range hi-res models aren't really useful at this point. Hurricane and global models are the best bet

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There are dozens of local station meteorologists showing these models right now telling their viewers this is what the storm is going to

Some met from se la or Miss - last name Allen is on fb saying he expects a hurricane to be approaching se la by mid week and the reason he gave was he just “could sense it”

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So how’s New Orleans looking? Flooding rains coming again?

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A light drizzle can flood a New Orleans neighborhood.

Recon going in later will hopefully help with the models going forward

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Some met from se la or Miss - last name Allen is on fb saying he expects a hurricane to be approaching se la by mid week and the reason he gave was he just “could sense it”

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I guess it's possible, but the system would have to rapidly organize over the next 24 hours. Then, a deeper, more organized system probably takes on a more SW motion, and may miss Louisiana to the south before heading towards Texas. However, dry air and northerly shear over the next couple of days probably result in more slow, steady organization than rapid organization.