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Started By
Message
re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:56 pm to baytiger
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:56 pm to baytiger
quote:
The latest
pressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since
this time yesterday.
nhc definition of rapid intensification is 42 mb in a day
2
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:58 pm to baytiger
I hope this thing stays far away from Louisiana
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:59 pm to baytiger
Just made it. I thought it was around 30-35 mb in a day. Thanks for the clarification.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:02 pm to NorthEndZone
Has it made it NE turn yet?
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:02 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:it's 42 mb or 30 kts. Matthew has done both
Just made it. I thought it was around 30-35 mb in a day. Thanks for the clarification.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:03 pm to tke857
still moving a bit south of west but it's slowing down for the curve.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:03 pm to tke857
Still heading WSW right now at 9 mph. It's slowed down a lot so maybe that means it's about to turn 
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:03 pm to tke857
Real turn not expected for another day or so.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:03 pm to baytiger
quote:Uh, oh. could get interesting around here in the coming days. I agree, though its still pretty far out currently and things can change back and forth yet.
but there is a definite threat for miami-space coast, and it's higher than the NHC forecast is letting on right now. NHC may have to make some significant westward adjustments in its 4-5 day soon.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:17 pm to baytiger
quote:
rapid intensification is a funny thing. even if every variable is in place for it to happen it's still kind of 50/50.
couple that with the notorious ineffectiveness of model intensity forecasts, and you have a situation in which the NHC will almost never forecast rapid intensification.
The recon flight today collected what will be the gold standard of datasets on RI. Many a PhD will come from this data, I'm pretty jealous
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:19 pm to rds dc
I love these hurricane threads - I read every single word of them - whether I understand all of them or not!!
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:21 pm to rds dc
quote:I'm sorry if I missed it before, but what do you do? I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it possibly involves meteorology?
rds dc
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:21 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Officially a Cat 4 now 140mph winds
Holy shite. Last night it was only in the 70s, right?
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:22 pm to HaveMercy
I've actually learned a lot in this thread. It's extremely interesting.
ETA: I've probably learned way too much actually. Now I'll be relentlessly checking all of these sites and models until this thing is gone
ETA: I've probably learned way too much actually. Now I'll be relentlessly checking all of these sites and models until this thing is gone
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:26 pm to roadGator
quote:This time yesterday sustained winds were at 75.
Holy shite. Last night it was only in the 70s, right?
9/29/16 @ 4pm: 75 mph, 993 mb
9/29/16 @ 10pm: 81 mph, 983 mb
9/30/16 @ 1am: 98 mph, 979 mb
9/30/16 @ 4am: 98 mph, 979 mb
9/30/16 @ 10am: 115 mph, 968 mb
9/30/16 @ 1pm: 120 mph, 960 mb
9/30/16 @ 4pm: 140 mph, 949 mb
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 4:44 pm
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:32 pm to ForeverLSU02
Damn
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:35 pm to ForeverLSU02
Got dayum. Think we'll see cat5 before it hits Cuba?
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:38 pm to Hulkklogan
It's got a shot.
Visible and IR showing increasing convection right near the center. It's certainly not weakening yet.
Visible and IR showing increasing convection right near the center. It's certainly not weakening yet.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:40 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:
ETA: I've probably learned way too much actually. Now I'll be relentlessly checking all of these sites and models until this thing is gone
Ha! I check them to! Watching these storms develop and morph is fascinating. Not that I want one to make landfall anywhere; but it sure is fun keeping track of them. Now if it makes landfall and does damage, I'm going to feel guilty.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 4:41 pm to ForeverLSU02
quote:
9/29/16 @ 4pm: 75 mph
9/29/16 @ 10pm: 81 mph
9/30/16 @ 1am: 98 mph
9/30/16 @ 4am: 98 mph
9/30/16 @ 10am: 115 mph
9/30/16 @ 1pm: 120 mph
9/30/16 @ 4pm: 140 mph
That thing will be like 500 mile an hour by first light
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