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re: Southeast Severe Weather: January 8-9, 2024

Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:31 pm to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
50754 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:31 pm to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
50754 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:32 pm to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:35 pm to
Never trust a warm front.

Also, its probably gonna be the QLCS based tors that are the severe pain in the arse tonight. That and it'll be a windbag some places.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71417 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:37 pm to
quote:

Pre-frontal instability was going to be tough to come by, limiting pre-frontal severe weather as we saw. Just enough of a cap today. Thought the lack of widespread rain might help boost instability but we didn’t see that.

Yeah, I think had we seen that warm front lift earlier it may have had just enough forcing to get some storms to fire. We got the relatively clear air going into the night like was modeled, but nothing to overcome the cap. I think it is shaping up for a rough time in Mobile later.
This post was edited on 1/8/24 at 8:38 pm
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175652 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:37 pm to
With quite a few severe events recently we’re seeing people so focused on the off the charts kinematics that they forget about the thermodynamics. It’s always going to be a delicate balance in the winter time. Big difference between winter and spring severe weather. You can’t blindly follow the CAMs but when hrrr et all are consistently showing a limited severe outbreak over most of LA you need to step back and dig into that with a little more detail. This is about Louisiana, not Mississippi and Alabama.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175652 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:39 pm to
Lot of dry air at the mid levels behind the line for the rest of the night that will entrain and ramp up the downdrafts. Bet we see a wall of wind reports along the coast late tonight.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71417 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:39 pm to
That's like the sounding earlier that got people excited. Yeah....crazy shear and srh, but CAPE was pitiful, especially low level, and moisture lagged the models.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
50754 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:39 pm to
Heck of a storm system.

Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71417 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:43 pm to
And the new watch is out.

This post was edited on 1/8/24 at 8:45 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
50754 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:44 pm to
New tornado watch:

Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175652 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:47 pm to
quote:

Not sure if it was mentioned but they think they had a tornado hit in Labadieville in Assumption parish. Messed up the fire station and a few businesses next to it. Plus a mobile home.

Assumption Parish is a low key tornado hot spot in south LA. There’s always one going through there season after season.
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10105 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:48 pm to
Ain’t shite happening out here currently, reporting live, Waffle news….
Posted by Bayou_Tiger_225
Third Earth
Member since Mar 2016
12432 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:50 pm to
MS is getting some serious rain
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
38140 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:50 pm to
I saw the storm report and said “yea this checks out” hopefully everyone’s alright knew an old coonie from Labadieville. He was a good dude.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
42903 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:51 pm to
So this was a warm front but it’s gonna be colder tomorrow? Is this El Niño?
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
41913 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:57 pm to
quote:

LINK


Through 7am?

That is going to make for a dicey call on having school tomorrow. I would imagine busses rolling at 5:45 tomorrow morning, and being on the road for an hour, is something that school systems will have to consider.

Crazy stuff.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175652 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 8:57 pm to
Mid-latitude cyclone, brotato sauce

Warm front moves through then the cold front follows. The squall line moving through is basically the cold front.

Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
175652 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:00 pm to
quote:

Through 7am?

That is going to make for a dicey call on having school tomorrow.

Not anywhere in Louisiana. The line will be through Pensacola by 7 am.
Posted by crewdepoo
Hogwarts
Member since Jan 2015
10882 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:01 pm to
I've always found it odd how storms all seem to dissipate near Baton Rouge. I suspected it was the chemical plants but never looked it up until now.

Research reveals how air pollution can stop rainfall
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
71417 posts
Posted on 1/8/24 at 9:02 pm to
Many schools in the Mobile and Panhandle area have already made the call to delay or cancel tomorrow.
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