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Started By
Message
re: Some people don't want to accept the data that shows the Covid impact hasn't been too bad
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:29 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:29 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
where, specifically?
Wuhan perhaps?
Review of this outbreak is really interesting.
We criticize the Chinese because they refused to acknowledge this was a serious threat allowing millions to interact and possibly spread the disease. Consequently Wuhan, a city bigger than NYC saw thousands perish
Yet, we now somehow believe America should have never shutdown because of the cost to our economy.
I like the Swedish approach but really that's because in hindsight we have the data to back their play. It was a huge gamble for them.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 9:41 am
2
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:30 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
es, and can't remember off the top of my head. In Econ there's the Cadillac effect but it's related to luxury items. I can't temember the psychological term for this phenomenon though.
It's fascinating to see.
Choice Supportive Bias
LINK
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 9:31 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:30 am to Tigeralum2008
quote:
Yet, we now somehow believe America should have never shutdown because of the cost to our economy.
Strategic shutdown vs blanket policy.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:31 am to JohnnyKilroy
There were hundreds of thousands dead that lead to this being a mass hysteria event.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:31 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
where, specifically?
Well, even with these precautions, New York’s hospitals were basically overrun. It’s why they are or were an epicenter. Other dense cities probably would have run into similar issues.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:31 am to Tigeralum2008
quote:
We criticize the Chinese because they refused to acknowledge this was a serious threat allowing millions to interact and possibly spread the disease. Consequently Wuhan, a city bigger than NYC saw thousands perish
we criticize China for lying about the virus, not their response in Wuhan (unless that response involves lying, which it does)
the problem is your argument presumes China didn't take this threat seriously when they did and tried to cover it up rather than admit their issues and receive a "black eye" of sorts. 95% of worldwide cases could have been stopped had China been honest about this
quote:
Yet, we now somehow believe America should have never shutdown because of the cost to our economy.
particular areas should have been shut down. not the entire nation or entire states
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:32 am to ell_13
quote:
There were hundreds of thousands dead that lead to this being a mass hysteria event.
You're saying hundreds of thousands died in china?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:32 am to Kujo
If it's lower, it's because having less car-crash deaths in Oregon is offsetting Covid deaths in NOLA/NYC and has nothing to do with the fatality rate of the virus itself. The only all cause data I've seen is coming out of NYC which is showing 5x normal for the 30 day period ending April 4th.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:32 am to LoveThatMoney
quote:
The worst part of it is that we have no fricking herd immunity because we have been sheltering in place, so when we go back to work, we’re going to see another spike.
Yep.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:33 am to LoveThatMoney
quote:
Well, even with these precautions, New York’s hospitals were basically overrun
a. everyone accepts NY was hit hard and should have had policies implemented
b. NY still overreacted with their projections. Cuomo demanded 40k vents less than a month ago
quote:
Other dense cities probably would have run into similar issues.
i think the only comparable cities, density-wise are on the West Coast and they did fine
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:33 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the entire point of social distancing was to flatten the curve and stretch out that time frame over a long period of time, so that our hospitals/ICUs weren't overwhelmed. people are now turning that mitigation strategy into an elimination strategy, in hindsight, b/c it fits the doomcasting narrative
Yep. And we can’t social distance our way out of this. There will have to be a controlled return to normality. Governor Abbott is supposedly addressing this today at noon.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:34 am to Tigersonfire
quote:
As I typed this now states will start claiming PROBABLE deaths reported by the news
Downvote it for what. It’s literally on the news RIGHT NOW.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:35 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
particular areas should have been shut down. not the entire nation or entire states
This. The blanket approach to slam everything closed, to include parks and beaches, is fricking asinine.
I don't blame the governors and mayors though. I blame the hyperventilating doomcasters, to include the ones in this very thread, that screamed bloody murder for the government to "do something!!!" and the media that egged them on making it seem like bumfrick Iowa was going to have the same amount of dead as NYC.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:35 am to LoveThatMoney
quote:
New York’s hospitals were basically overrun. I
A couple of hospitals, for the most part NYC didn't use the overflow areas they built. Think it's an exaggeration.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:35 am to LoveThatMoney
quote:
And we can’t social distance our way out of this.
that's the problem people refuse to understand
social distancing was STRICTLY about hospital capacity. full stop
social distancing was not about "beating this thing" or "stopping COVID in its tracks" or whatever elimination-strategy catch phrase is being used
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:36 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:
more people will have died from suicide after having their livelihoods destroyed than will have legitimately died from the virus itself.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:36 am to GetCocky11
They keep moving the goalposts either for fear of it being worse in another spike or just being fearful pansies.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:38 am to SlowFlowPro
I think Chicago has some pretty bad issues, but again, we have done things to mitigate this crap. I’m talking if we just let it run rampant.
And there have been times when I thought that would be better. Even the bad projections (200,000 dead) would be less than 1% of the population and the bulk of those (90%?) would be people at or near the end of their life anyway. Most certainly are no longer participating in the economy the way they used to as the live off social security and Medicaid. But that’s a cold fricking rationalization.
And there have been times when I thought that would be better. Even the bad projections (200,000 dead) would be less than 1% of the population and the bulk of those (90%?) would be people at or near the end of their life anyway. Most certainly are no longer participating in the economy the way they used to as the live off social security and Medicaid. But that’s a cold fricking rationalization.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:38 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
i think the only comparable cities, density-wise are on the West Coast and they did fine
They shutdown harder and earlier than NY though.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 9:39 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
It's not all or nothing. To also not a stretch at all to think in many areas we overreacted.
Small businesses are probably a miniscule risk for widespread contagions.
Exactly. Shut down all the small businesses, then force everyone to congregate at a handfull of places.
The ABC stores won't allow you to grab a bottle off the shelf. You tell them what you want, an employee fetches it for you. Leave there, go to the grocery store and grab whatever you want.
I wonder how many lives were saved by this policy?
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