- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: So all the new science is pointing out COVID isn't as bad as the normal Flu
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:29 pm to RogerTheShrubber
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:29 pm to RogerTheShrubber
Doesn't look like it as you're still lashing out as ever 
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 9:32 pm
0
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:30 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Yeah that post didn’t even age well for a week.
“Why are y’all even talking about this so much, only 2 people died.”
“Why are y’all even talking about this so much, only 2 people died.”
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:30 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And the case fatality rate from the Diamond Princess that they used to estimate a 0.5% infection fatality rate has since doubled, which means the estimation they used for the IFR has also doubled, putting us at 1% IFR that has been estimated for quite some time.
That's also the most vulnerable group of people possible to be infected. The average age of the passengers was 69 years old. So essentially, you're looking at 1% in the vulnerable groups, so when you factor in younger infections, the IFR will be driven down to somewhere in the .3-.7% range.
You can also use the USS Roosevelt, who had approximately 14% infected (660 positive tests out of 5,000), and 1 death. That's a confined ship with basically the exact opposite age group.
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:30 pm to Hot Carl
quote:
No doctor has ever bugged you to get the flu vaccine. They bug you to get the flu shot. Not the same thing, though I am not qualified to explain the difference.
Dude, the flu shot is absolutely a vaccine.
I agree with your second paragraph though
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:30 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Remember when the prevailing argument was that this was a big nothing because such a large percentage of the US deaths occurred in just one nursing home. Ahhhh simpler times.
Muh Science!
Muh Models!
Muh end of the world!
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:31 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Muh Science!
Muh Models!
Muh end of the world!
See the first response to this thread
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:34 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
See the first response to this thread
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:36 pm to hehateme2285
Also, one issue to consider with these ships, diamond princess and the Roosevelt is that they captured active infections.
We can’t be sure there weren’t early cases that had already resolved. I wish they would go back and give all of them antibody tests.
We can’t be sure there weren’t early cases that had already resolved. I wish they would go back and give all of them antibody tests.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:37 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
We can’t be sure there weren’t early cases that had already resolved. I wish they would go back and give all of them antibody tests.
Completely agree. I know the CDC and the Navy are going to do a study on the Roosevelt and that's part of it
quote:
Starting Monday, the Navy is going to ask volunteers from Theodore Roosevelt for blood samples and swabs to begin a serology (pronounced: SIR-all-ah-gee) study into the outbreak on the carrier, Navy Surgeon General Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham told reporters on Friday.
“This is similar to outbreak investigations the CDC and public health professionals do around the world,” he said.
“The results of this outbreak investigation will inform medical professionals to support better public health decisions for the ship. It will also advise the broader COVID-19, surveillance and mitigation strategies for the [Theodore Roosevelt], the fleet and our nation. And because we’re doing this outbreak investigation with the CDC, the information gained will add to the growing body of public health knowledge about this virus so that we can better understand it and fight it.”
LINK
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 9:39 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:42 pm to Volvagia
quote:
But the main point isn’t even that. Let’s say this mitigation is the same as a vaccination campaign as far as impact goes.
That’s my point. It isnt the same impact, not even close. Social distancing does not mitigate severity, or incidence. Flu vaccines do.
quote:
Amazing how that suddenly went away now it only slightly trails behind heart disease on a week to week mortality tracking.
Heart disease killed ~165 per 100k....COVID kills is ~4/100k. If you think that is close IDK what to say.
quote:
That it’s just like the flu, like you’ve always said because you can’t be wrong, but really the flu is this really really bad pathogen that we’ve only marginalized to nothing significant because the flu has been mitigated by vaccines that we have concentrated on the most vulnerable.
My point is that COVID is roughly equivalent to a moderate-mean flu season. Ive plainly stated that multiple times. Except we actually have significant mitigation measures in place for the flu. Social distancing doesnt do shite for severity/mortality of COVID, it only stretches out the timeframe, it wont reduce total # of infections or mortality.
quote:
Well shite son, you’ve sold me. In the absence of a vaccine you’ve proven the value of these draconian and borderline unconstitutional containment measures.
If you think this is the point I’ve been making in the slightest, I’m concerned about your reading comprehension. Vaccines >>>> unprecedented social distancing in terms of severity and incidence. More is done in terms of mitigating flu than COVID.
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 9:46 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:43 pm to Methuselah
quote:
Funny thing is this was a good chance to work out the bugs in the different government response and health care systems if a bad one pops up, but I'm not sure what lessons everyone learned or thinks they learned, though
Think about that for a second. Now, how many hurricanes has the U.S. had and STILL if a major hurricane hits all lines of govt are STILL not prepared for proper response.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:53 pm to AMS
quote:
Social distancing does not mitigate severity, or incidence
If you dont think staying in your house and avoiding interactions with anyone with a week plus doesn’t lower incidence of infection, I don’t know what to say.
Obviously further discussion is pointless
quote:
Social distancing doesnt do shite for severity/mortality of COVID, it only stretches out the timeframe, it wont reduce total # of infections or mortality.
Except for the reality that mortality shoots through the roof in multiple places where population density causes a flood of cases.
For what you say to be true, you wouldn’t see the pattern in multiple countries of a localized area accounting for a disproportionate portion of mortality vs population.
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 9:58 pm to ThuperThumpin
quote:
what data made you think this was bullshite
Possibly Iceland. Just under 1% infection in random population sampling. 8 deaths in nation of 330k.
Clear that mortality wasn't high. And infection very widespread.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:06 pm to Volvagia
quote:
If you dont think staying in your house and avoiding interactions with anyone with a week plus doesn’t lower incidence of infection, I don’t know what to say.
Obviously further discussion is pointless
Yea but thats not what’s happening. No one is actually staying in there home with 0 outside contact for 2 weeks. People still go the the store, get gas, get mail, go get food. Social distancing only delays when some people get infected. It doesnt reduce the severity or total # of infected. Just slows the rate. You dont gain immunity by being inside lmao.
Flu vaccines reduce ICU admissions for those vaccinated by ~60%, decreases avg hospitalization stay by 4 days. CDC estimates it prevented more than 6 million infections. Social distancing effect on rate of infected needing ICU/hospitalized/infected = little to none. Social distancing was always only to ‘flatten the curve’, the area under the curve is the same, just spread out. If you dont understand that, read it again, otherwise, further discussion is obviously pointless because you think pretending to quarantine legitimately mitigates severity of COVID, more than vaccines which actually mitigate flu severity.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:11 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Except for the reality that mortality shoots through the roof in multiple places where population density causes a flood of cases.
For what you say to be sure, you wouldn’t see the pattern in multiple countries of a localized area accounting for a disproportionate portion of mortality vs population.
Social distancing doesnt impact severity of the illness, just the slows the rate of infection for fricks sake. This means that of those who get infected the same mortality rate will be seenit just spreads out the same mortality rate in time. A virus doesnt work harder to kill you because you live in New York vs Idaho.
Social distance flattens the curve, it doesnt reduce the area under the curve. Flu vaccines do both.
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 10:17 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:31 pm to AMS
quote:
No one is actually staying in there home with 0 outside contact for 2 weeks.
Because the idea falls through without that given.
So if you go out 3 times in a week to get groceries in that time period, it’s the same as going out 20+ times
Got it.
And you’ve already established that a 40% mitigation is profound with flu from your perspective. I guess that doesn’t carry over to the over side of the equation. It’s all either 100% effective or useless.
Manufacturing strawman points from hyperbolic extreme exaggerations still.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:41 pm to AMS
quote:
Social distance flattens the curve, it doesnt reduce the area under the curve. Flu vaccines do both.
In theoretical absolute terms, you are correct.
But the real world is not in a vacuum.
Or are you the only “Muh flu” who doesn’t think there are drugs which have efficacy against coronavirus?
The point of “flatting the curve” isn’t just to prevent overwhelming the health care system in the short term. Granted, it hasn’t been a prominent talking point else where so I wouldn’t expect you to be aware.
It gives a chance to find what drugs help in what manner, and start spoolling up logistics to deliver that care.
And yes, developing a standard of care and having a clearly defined disease pathology does impact mortality in a positive manner.
quote:
This means that of those who get infected the same mortality rate will be seenit just spreads out the same mortality rate in time. A virus doesnt work harder to kill you because you live in New York vs Idaho.
Okay.
Then explain why every single country with more than 20k cases has at least one region with a local CFR more than double the national average.
China, Italy, US, France, Spain, hell even Germany has that pattern.
I offered an explanation. Could be wrong of course, but your response was that because you couldn’t explain away reality, so reality didn’t exist.
This post was edited on 4/18/20 at 10:42 pm
Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:47 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:What are you talking about? I literally provided pages worth of the exact opposite when you accused me of this all the way back during the Comey testimony nearly 2 years ago.
You argued Trump’s Russian involvement for months.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:52 pm to hehateme2285
quote:Well it’s twice that (14/712), and one just died the other day. And given the socio-economic, and the baseline health necessary to travel like that, they’re probably less vulnerable than many others
So essentially, you're looking at 1% in the vulnerable groups,
quote:One death, although we never know if more will happen. Regardless that’s 0.15% for probably one of the least vulnerable groups.
You can also use the USS Roosevelt, who had approximately 14% infected (660 positive tests out of 5,000), and 1 death.
So the midpoint between the two converges on roughly 1%.
Posted on 4/18/20 at 10:52 pm to AMS
quote:
My point is that COVID is roughly equivalent to a moderate-mean flu season. Ive plainly stated that multiple times.
A moderate mean flu season in the US is 30k-40k over a 6-7 month period.
We're at 40k in one month. You can deny it all you want, but the your feelings that it's just the flu don't conform with the facts. It's completely ok to be wrong.
Page 6 of 9
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News