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re: So all the new science is pointing out COVID isn't as bad as the normal Flu
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:47 am to AMS
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:47 am to AMS
quote:
You cant read. I keep saying a mean flu season. So 40-60k
But that isn't a mean flu season. You keep saying it is, but it isn't. The average flu season kills about 36k* in the US in any given year.
*Based on CDC models. The number of lab confirmed flu deaths in a given year is likely in the low 5 figure range.
I mean shite, the H1N1 estimate of 12k deaths in the US is based on around 1200 lab confimred H1N1 deaths.
We're at over 30k lab confirmed Covid deaths.
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 12:56 am
2
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:00 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
But that isn't a mean flu season. You keep saying it is, but it isn't. The average flu season kills about 36k in the US in any given year.
I get the confusion, thats my bad. I meant mean as in more severe/aggressive than the run of the mill season, so closer to upper limits. And bajillion and second time, I’m considering the vaccination impact on severity, which social distancing has no impact on.
But we can go with avg, kills 36k. Even so at 36k is after 60% reduced need for ICU.,And vaccines reduced the severity of those who do need the ICU. Without vaccines thats roughly equivalent COVID and flu severity.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:03 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I mean shite, the H1N1 estimate of 12k deaths in the US is based on around 1200 lab confimred H1N1 deaths.
If were gonna nit pick specific strains to compare for favorable stats I chose SARS-Corona which killed fewer than 1000 worldwide in 2003.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:06 am to AMS
quote:
But we can go with avg, kills 36k. Even so at 36k is after 60% reduced need for ICU.,And vaccines reduced the severity of those who do need the ICU. Without vaccines thats roughly equivalent COVID and flu severity.
Look I'll say fair enough. But what you are arguing, and what the OP is arguing are 2 different things.
You're arguing that a vaccine-less flu would be as bad as covid is. I don't agree 100% because even without a vaccine for that strain, a large percentage of the population has some level of defense against influenza.
What OP is arguing is that we should have taken NO mitigation measures for covid because "it isn't as bad as the normal flu". Do you agree with that?
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:08 am to Strannix
We only know what we’re told. Maybe it means this and maybe it means that. I like how we as people decide to believe or disbelieve in a story and then argue about it despite the fact no one knows whos right.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:28 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
You're arguing that a vaccine-less flu would be as bad as covid is. I don't agree 100% because even without a vaccine for that strain, a large percentage of the population has some level of defense against influenza
That’s the thing. They wouldn’t really. Flu has a characteristicly significant antigenic drift AND shift. That’s why you need new vaccines each season. Flu shots are only protective for 1-2 seasons, your body would only develop an immunity to the season it was infected for a while, but wouldn’t see that same strain for long enough to not matter. Its not like tetanus and its vaccine thats good for 10 years. Different types of vaccines and immune response. It’s not like chicken pox where you can get it once maybe twice.
quote:
What OP is arguing is that we should have taken NO mitigation measures for covid because "it isn't as bad as the normal flu". Do you agree with that?
Well I wasn’t arguing with OP, and i never said we should do nothing for COVID.
I was arguing with someone who acted like the unprecedented extreme measures for COVID were dwarfed by A simple vaccine effort in terms of significance of a measure comparatively. They are similar in severity overall, I’m just saying there is much more impactful measures taken for flu, without being as extreme as COVID. Regardless of whether or not you believe extreme measures are warranted.
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 1:33 am
Posted on 4/19/20 at 6:50 am to AMS
quote:
But we can go with avg, kills 36k.
The “average” flu numbers are exaggerated more than Covid. The 36K number is a joke.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 10:02 am to Strannix
How are you isolating just flu numbers? Flu numbers and pneumonia are lumped into one sum called Flu.
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