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3
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:37 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
I may be wrong, and I know someone will correct me if I am, but Laura was already well organized when her intensification happened. This storm doesn't seem to be near as organized as Laura was.
Somewhat. A Cat 1 with no eye and just a central dense overcast. 24 hours later she was 145 mph.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:39 pm to Large Farva
Basically all the western tracks were weak, this is showing some stronger ones on the western side now.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:39 pm to Large Farva
quote:
I wish you’d think to yourself before you hit submit, “can a six year old understand this?”
If this:
quote:is way over your head when looking at a map of a bunch of lines, you might be hopeless.
The interesting thing about that is that there are now some stronger members in the western spread, when at 12z essentially all stronger members were in the eastern 1/3 cluster.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:40 pm to rds dc
If the actual track is anything close to that, the east side will have rain for 4 or 5 days. Sally is going to circle all the way around them. They will not be out of the rain until the 'tail' south of Sally clears them to the east.
I hope for their sake a bit of drier air somehow keeps the rain totals from being catastrophic.
I hope for their sake a bit of drier air somehow keeps the rain totals from being catastrophic.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:40 pm to rds dc
quote:
The interesting thing about that is that there are now some stronger members in the western spread, when at 12z essentially all stronger members were in the eastern 1/3 cluster.
I really think it's the early forward motion. How far west can it get by tomorrow afternoon? Everything wants to drift it tomorrow, stall it for a few hours, and goes north. The north turn and slowdown should be a little earlier if it's deeper, of course, but I'm thinking it's more of a next 24 hours forward motion function vs just how strong it is by then.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:41 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
I may be wrong, and I know someone will correct me if I am, but Laura was already well organized when her intensification happened. This storm doesn't seem to be near as organized as Laura was.
Laura started to strengthen as soon as it cleared Cuba and got into open water and continued that intensification pretty much until landfall. At best, Laura only had to deal with a low shear environment.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:44 pm to Large Farva
quote:
I wish you’d think to yourself before you hit submit, “can a six year old understand this?”
Well, we don't have six year olds posting here.
Look, rds gives more technical info, while Duke gives more of the layman info, and slackster gives info for seven year olds. If you find yourself on the seven year old spectrum, then he can help you out.
That said, maybe Google some of the things rds and Duke throw out there - you might learn something that can help you for later.
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:45 pm to slackster
quote:
is way over your head when looking at a map of a bunch of lines, you might be hopeless.
In fairness, the Governors powerpoint today said something like "track shifted more to the left" instead of west.
Someone obviously thought they needed to dumb it down some.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:45 pm to rds dc
GFS has Sally tracking slightly more east than NOAA.
[link=(blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/885ba5ac-6ced-40d0-b52d-e6a05b4d6060)]Link to GIF[/link]
[link=(blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/885ba5ac-6ced-40d0-b52d-e6a05b4d6060)]Link to GIF[/link]
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:47 pm to GumboPot
Will the 10 o’clock update tell us anything significant with the track or is it more of an intensity level update?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:47 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Look, rds gives more technical info, while Duke gives more of the layman info, and slackster gives info for seven year olds.
Should be the top reply for any hurricane thread.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:48 pm to Tha Herg
quote:
Will the 10 o’clock update tell us anything significant with the track
One thing is for certain - they'll say there is more uncertainty in the guidance than normal.
The update is an update of both forecasts though.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:48 pm to Tha Herg
quote:
Will the 10 o’clock update tell us anything significant with the track or is it more of an intensity level update?
10 is a track update.
10 am/pm. 4 am/pm. Those are the full updates with a new track.
1 am/pm. 7 am/pm. Those are the intensity only updates.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:49 pm to slackster
Do y'all have a discord where y'all discuss strategy on how to explain weather shite to the TD posters?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:49 pm to slackster
I'd be surprised if they do a major move east because there's so much uncertainty
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:50 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
In fairness, the Governors powerpoint today said something like "track shifted more to the left" instead of west.
Someone obviously thought they needed to dumb it down some.
That's actually a little technical for this thread. We tend to talk distances in base H.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:50 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Well, we don't have six year olds posting here.
That’s debatable
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:51 pm to slackster
I asked you 2 questions and you didn’t answer either one of them.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 8:51 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
That’s debatable
Sorry, I forgot about you.
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