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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:07 pm to Duke
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:07 pm to Duke
quote:
Kind of like a fist or like a shrimp shape.
I know exactly what you mean, but no one in their right mind would equate a fist shape and the shape of a shrimp outside of a hurricane thread.
1
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Yeah, people don't need to get lulled by this leveling off. It will continue to wrap and that convection will catch up with the pressure drop eventually, and strengthening will resume.
This whole process should be on radar. You don't get that often.
I've got so much Level2 data to download when I get back to NOLA and my desktop.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:08 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Another BINGO
You're welcome. In my defense I was asked about it. I did not randomly bring it up
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:09 pm to reds on reds on reds
Nah, 1pm updates don't include track updates. Her position on the map is closer to that H, that's all.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:09 pm to LegendInMyMind
Seems like this thing could make landfall anywhere from NOLA to Perdido Key. Any idea when it is going to hit land?
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:10 pm to redneck
All good bruh.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:11 pm to igoringa
I doubt much changes now except for intensification and that doesn’t seem very reliable
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:13 pm to Duke
quote:
There's a weak ridge over the SE and kind of extending down into Florida. Currently Sally is getting pushed west by it now being on the south side of it. There's a trough moving west that will erode the western extent, leave only a weak ridge to the east of it which pushes it north. Eventually the trough will start kicking it NE.
So it's going to drift WNW generally today, almost stall overnight, and start moving north.
Everything the NHC path shows makes sense with the steering pattern at play.
So, how good are they at pinpointing the spot where it hooks?
Doesn't seem like there's a lot of wiggle room for the New Orleans area unless there's a whole lot of confidence in that.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:14 pm to loweralabamatrojan
quote:
Seems like this thing could make landfall anywhere from NOLA to Perdido Key. Any idea when it is going to hit land?
Anywhere in the cone will see impacts. Drastic shifts shouldn't be expected at this point, as the NHC has it pretty much nailed down, much like with Laura, despite what some will argue. You're just not likely to see drastic shifts one way or the other at this point.
However, inside of that cone, you should expect and prepare for impacts.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:15 pm to Duke
Do you put much faith in these GFS ensembles?
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:16 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:I made that point on page 133 and apparently triggered some posters.
So, how good are they at pinpointing the spot where it hooks?
Doesn't seem like there's a lot of wiggle room for the New Orleans area
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:16 pm to loweralabamatrojan
I know all the models say a Nola landfall is pretty slim but I’m just not comfortable knowing that if for whatever reason the ridge doesn’t pick up and kick the storm east as expected it won’t be until the storm is pretty much on top of Nola.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:16 pm to TigerBait1980
quote:
Do you put much faith in these GFS ensembles?
People should understand what "Ensembles" are before throwing around words like "faith".
They are not forecasts.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:16 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Doesn't seem like there's a lot of wiggle room for the New Orleans area unless there's a whole lot of confidence in that.
That's what got the pucker factor up in NOLA.
I think everyone knows that it will turn, but the timing of the turn is huge.
It's like looking at a car coming straight at you, and believing it will turn at the last second.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:18 pm to LegendInMyMind
The ensembles are as expected. Weaker storm goes west. Stronger east
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:18 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
how good are they at pinpointing the spot where it hooks
They’re pretty good
They nailed Dorian’s exact hook spot and that was with a category 5 dangerously close to Miami so they’re the best at what they do Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:18 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:Really? Then what are they?
People should understand what "Ensembles" are before throwing around words like "faith".
They are not forecasts.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:19 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
So, how good are they at pinpointing the spot where it hooks?
Pretty good and the stronger storm makes it a little easier.
It's going to be nervous for NOLA but that NE shift earlier has really decreased the odds it does the turn south of the city. It's not an all clear at this point by any means, but my optimism for NOLA has been rising all morning as it has been dropping for Mobile.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:21 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:Thanks.
People should understand what "Ensembles" are before throwing around words like "faith". They are not forecasts.
You really cleared that up. Your insight is greatly appreciated.
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:23 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Really? Then what are they?
You know how when you look at a cluster of spaghetti models which vary widely? The Ensembles are made up of many different model runs. Each run changes some particular factor(s). It may strengthen a High Pressure ridge and weaken a trough. It could factor in a higher degree of shear. A particular ensemble model run can change anything to produce a certain outcome. They aren't necessarily representative of real world conditions or factors.
Look at them as a way of hedging your bets. If X happens, then we expect Y to happen. It doesn't mean X is going to happen.
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