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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding

Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:57 pm to
Posted by Palmetto08
Member since Sep 2012
4129 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

Dad?
ETA: Would actually be hilarious if my dad has been posting here and I had no idea.




It’s me son. Sorry you had to find out in a hurricane thread

Posted by thadcastle
Member since Dec 2019
2843 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

t’s me son. Sorry you had to find out in a hurricane thread
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
16132 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

Meanwhile, God in NOLA:


You spelled Latoya wrong.
Posted by LSUGrad9295
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2007
37866 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

Going to make a beer run on the way home, and ride this one out with a pregnant wife.


Whose pregnant wife?

Best wishes through all of this.
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 12:59 pm
Posted by thadcastle
Member since Dec 2019
2843 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:00 pm to
What is dog river storm surge looking like?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:00 pm to


I suspect intensification has slowed now as the wrap around process needs to happen for more strengthening to happen.

That band is starting to show up south of the main CDO. This shows me organization is still improving and it's starting to get that look of a storm really wrapping up. Kind of like a fist or like a shrimp shape.

Posted by EveryoneGetsATrophy
Member since Nov 2017
2907 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:00 pm to
She's already pregnant, keep slamming it like a screen door in a hurricane.
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 1:08 pm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131503 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:01 pm to
quote:

redneck


quote:

Yeah we moved everything upstairs and the boats to higher ground.


Another BINGO
Posted by Thracken13
Aft Cargo Hold of Serenity
Member since Feb 2010
18841 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:01 pm to
I do appreciate that sir - hope you are yours are safe in all this.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102615 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

Frederic in 1979 was bad in Mobile


That’s way before my time
Posted by SECbro
Member since Aug 2018
683 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:03 pm to
Posted by igoringa
South Mississippi
Member since Jun 2007
12382 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:03 pm to
When should we expect the next model runs (I know the NHC update is in an hour)?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102615 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

12z HWRF & HMON both show landfall near MS/AL border at about 960mb.




frick I may have cursed Mobile in my earlier comment. Sorry to any mobile baws
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:04 pm to
quote:


When should we expect the next model runs


Euro is running now. Ensembles will be out in an hour or two.

Next set of models starts about 4:30 pm.
Posted by DhanTigers212
Member since Dec 2014
10497 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:04 pm to
Just out of curiosity. What is causing sally to pretty much bounce off of Louisiana and literally shoot east? It’s almost like Louisiana has a force field over it.
Posted by BigEdLSU
All around the south
Member since Sep 2010
20402 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:04 pm to
this chick on twc thicc af
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75072 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

That band is starting to show up south of the main CDO. This shows me organization is still improving and it's starting to get that look of a storm really wrapping up. Kind of like a fist or like a shrimp shape.



Yeah, people don't need to get lulled by this leveling off. It will continue to wrap and that convection will catch up with the pressure drop eventually, and strengthening will resume.

This whole process should be on radar. You don't get that often.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

When is Sally supposed to make that jog west? She keeps moving NW with Mobile taking a direct hit.



She’s just going to drift generally wnw for the next day or so.

Also, her eye is still quite filled in with convection. Hopefully that continues since it will inhibit substantial strengthening.

Posted by reds on reds on reds
Member since Sep 2013
4951 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:06 pm to
Looks like path slid west a bit with the 1pm model?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/14/20 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

What is causing sally to pretty much bounce off of Louisiana and literally shoot east? It’s almost like Louisiana has a force field over it.




There's a weak ridge over the SE and kind of extending down into Florida. Currently Sally is getting pushed west by it now being on the south side of it. There's a trough moving west that will erode the western extent, leave only a weak ridge to the east of it which pushes it north. Eventually the trough will start kicking it NE.

So it's going to drift WNW generally today, almost stall overnight, and start moving north.

Everything the NHC path shows makes sense with the steering pattern at play.
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