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re: Rate of increase in cases in Italy has come down even thought testing is increasing.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:23 pm to Dr RC
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:23 pm to Dr RC
quote:
For them sure but Italy has done a shitload more social distancing and self quarantining than we have.
when did their complete lock down begin?
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:23 pm to Anaximander
in direct conflict with this article
LINK
at least in Lombard
LINK
quote:
The only sure thing is that the data arriving from Lombardy are now unusable. There is a saturation effect that distorts them. For those who, like me, do this type of analysis it is better not to take them into consideration and focus on other areas of Italy.
quote:
From what we know, the Lombard hospitals, now on the verge of collapse, send back many people with symptoms without taking a swab. And therefore the number of infected people is largely underestimated. But as the mayors of Bergamasco report, there is also an incorrect estimate of the deaths. Many now die at home without tests and not in intensive care, so they are not counted as deaths for Covid-19 in official reports
at least in Lombard
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:23 pm to Anaximander
So if they’re testing more and not just the super sick ones, then the rate would naturally go down because you’re also testing healthy people.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:24 pm to Dr RC
quote:
For them sure but Italy has done a shitload more social distancing and self quarantining than we have.
They are now but initially they were more like New Orleans.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-18/what-went-wrong-with-how-italy-handled-coronavirus/12062242
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:24 pm to Salmon
quote:
aren't we only supposed to be like 2 weeks behind Italy? if so, this is fantastic news
someone correct me if I'm just talking nonsense though
You do realize it didn’t just happen. And the virus isn’t simply winding down.
The entire country is on lock down. And has been for almost 2 weeks.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:27 pm to Volvagia
quote:
You do realize it didn’t just happen
Yes...
quote:
And the virus isn’t simply winding down.
I'm aware...
quote:
The entire country is on lock down. And has been for almost 2 weeks.
I consider this good news, considering some people talking about locking down for months
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:27 pm to Dr RC
quote:
For them sure but Italy has done a shitload more social distancing and self quarantining than we have.
doc, you can't have it both ways. I've heard repeatedly that the reason Italy has had such devastation is BECASUE they didn't distance and self quarantine. I was told by numerous outlets that exactly why we had to do so. well which is it? Either they didn't, and the illness is petering out regardless. OR they did and they still had devastation.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:29 pm to tigerinthebueche
quote:
Either they didn't, and the illness is petering out regardless. OR they did and they still had devastation.
they waited too long
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:29 pm to Dr RC
quote:
For them sure but Italy has done a shitload more social distancing and self quarantining than we have.
Perhaps, but, to our benefit, the population density in Italy is about six times as high as the United States (~532/sq mi vs. ~93/sq mi).
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:30 pm to tigerinthebueche
quote:
doc, you can't have it both ways. I've heard repeatedly that the reason Italy has had such devastation is BECASUE they didn't distance and self quarantine. I was told by numerous outlets that exactly why we had to do so. well which is it? Either they didn't, and the illness is petering out regardless. OR they did and they still had devastation.
People in Italy were first urged to go out until things got worse. THEN the lockdown.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:32 pm to Jizzy08
quote:
So if they’re testing more and not just the super sick ones, then the rate would naturally go down because you’re also testing healthy people.
The percentage of positive tests would go down. Not the number of positives.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:32 pm to Anaximander
Al Jezeera is more reputable than CNN or MSNBC
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:33 pm to Anaximander
quote:
People in Italy were first urged to go out until things got worse. THEN the lockdown.
ok. and yet, the rate of increase is apparently coming down. So maybe its not as bad as we fear? Nothing to take lightly, but not the angel of death we've been led to believe?
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:36 pm to jmcwhrter
quote:
sadly i'd probably anything Al Jazeera says before I trust NBC/ABC/CNN
Contrary to what a lot of people believe, Al Jazeera English is a very credible news organization.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:45 pm to Sasquatch Smash
This is one point I haven’t heard talked about enough. We are a way more spread out country than just about any European or Asian Country. If we just commit to half the social distancing that they have we should be in better shape than even them you would think. I mean with the geography of our country with are kinda naturally socially distanced except for a couple of places
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:47 pm to Salmon
quote:
when did their complete lock down begin?
March 12
Too many people here still DGAF though. All the idiots partying balls on Spring Break, the people packing bars and restaurants, concerts that still went on, the packed international terminals in the airports this last weekend.
Then we have to consider all the people w/o health insurance or sick leave who are just flat out not going to go to the doctor or stop going to work.
Italy made a lot of mistakes early on but has done a good job of realizing they need people to isolate.
We have repeated many of their mistakes (politicians encouraging people to go out to restaurants, shutting down travel to China but not other countries, flat out indifference) and I don't yet see enough people taking the social distancing recommendations seriously enough. Obviously different states are being more proactive than others but here in Texas it's looking like we are going to get kicked squarely in the balls b/c Gov Abbott is essentially leaving it up to each city on how to respond, we are severely lacking in testing (only 1200 as of yesterday), and we have a very high amount of uninsured people.
At least we aren't as bad as Florida w/our response but that ain't saying much.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:47 pm to OGtigerfan87
quote:
We are a way more spread out country than just about any European or Asian Country
Who else would compare to us in terms of population being spread out? Russia?
Posted on 3/19/20 at 12:53 pm to jchamil
quote:
We are a way more spread out country than just about any European or Asian Country
Who else would compare to us in terms of population being spread out? Russia?
Italy is 200 people per square kilometer to 34 in the United States.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 12:54 pm
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