re: powerball odds - help me win my argument - posted pg 8

So first day back of the last semester. And now my friend and others are still arguing with me claming that i an wrong.



Their argument :
That if you play the same numbers every week over the course of youur life, or for thousands of years then you will have greater odds of winning.


Their reasoning :

If you roll 2 dice then your odds of winning are 1/36. By having a quick pick you are rolling another dice every week and must have both the "quick pick dice" hit and have the "powerball dice" hit. Theoretically giving you a 1/36 chance (in dice terms)

They claim that by playing your same numbers every week you eliminate one dice roll and therefore eliminate one variable, so your odds over your lifetime of winning increase over time.

I say that this is not true, because your origional "lucky numbers" are in fact rollig a dice to pick them in the first place. Even holding them constant after that should not change your odds in my opinion

Can anyone give me a mathematical proof to disprover their theory.

i told them that exact argument and they said thats if you are rolling one dice and its like rolling 2 dice.

i told them to pick a number and roll 100 dice or pick a random number every time and roll a dice and both will statistically result in a 1/6 win rate given luck/no luck

i told them that as well. Guess its hopeless and they all think im the wrong guy

LINK

Click on the options button at the bottom to select your own numbers. Run it with quick-pick and with self-picked numbers multiple times and see.

I understand their thinking, but statistics don't lie. Their thinking is that it's easier for a moving object to hit an object at rest than for 2 moving objects to collide.

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Can anyone give me a mathematical proof to disprover their theory.

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1. Pick 2 random numbers, between 1 and ~300,000,000.

2. What is the probability that you picked a number, the first time you picked a number between 1 and ~300,000,000? 100%

3. What is the probability that you picked the same number when you picked the second random number between 1 and ~300,000,000? 1/~300,000,000

The value of the first number is irrelevant. The probability is 1 time 1/~3000,000,000.

Picking the same number over and over does not affect the probability of individual discreet events.

to the OP. no matter what numbers you play, the odds are always the same.

The people who think if you play the same numbers they have to come up eventually do not understand probability.

If you flip a coin, the odds are always 50/50 that heads comes up.

People who bet big on black after red wins 14 times are wrong.
Black and red are equally possible every time.
and its not 50/50 to be black since there are two green numbers.

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If you roll 2 dice then your odds of winning are 1/36. By having a quick pick you are rolling another dice every week and must have both the "quick pick dice" hit and have the "powerball dice" hit. Theoretically giving you a 1/36 chance (in dice terms)

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Like you said, either way you are rolling a second set of dice.

The way that your post is worded is confusing me but I assume you are talking about the gambler's fallacy. Its why casinos put those boards up at the roulette table showing the previous numbers. People will look at it and see that it was black 5 times in a row and bet red. But in the reality, the previous rolls have nothing to do with the current one, the odds are still the same.

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Besides, i dont need to learn any more about "liberal arts" from the piss poor english department that gave me professors who did not show up to class because they had a hangover. Engineering is the way to go.

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No...All your posts are like this. I am an actual engineer. You barely understand basic math. Please stop with this Powerball bullshite.