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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:53 pm to Volvagia
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:53 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Volvagia
Somewhat unrelated question for you based on an earlier post you made in this thread. You mentioned previously that you were certain that species altering pandemic would occur in our lifetime, but that you didn't think this was it.
Were you joking or do you truly believe that? If the latter, how do you think it will manifest? Something similar to this outbreak, just with a higher mortality rate? A biological weapon of some sorts?
It's an interesting topic to think about (which is partly why this thread has been so popular I believe). Just curious what your thoughts are on the matter since you seem to be pretty educated on the subject.
2
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:56 pm to wareagle47
quote:
Just curious what your thoughts are on the matter since you seem to be pretty educated on the subject.
The dog killed the woman. Not mans best friend any longer, the world is screwed.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:58 pm to jennBN
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:01 pm to WaWaWeeWa
I’d go almost exclusively by SK data ATM to judge what’s up for now.
1)the outbreak is far more mature
2)the population is of a similar ethnicity as China, allowing for a more reasonable reference.
3)It has Western level standards of care
4)population is more militaristic, pragmatic, and infused with a sense of duty. These lead to a higher reporting probability rather than the variable phantom mild illness at home cases
1)the outbreak is far more mature
2)the population is of a similar ethnicity as China, allowing for a more reasonable reference.
3)It has Western level standards of care
4)population is more militaristic, pragmatic, and infused with a sense of duty. These lead to a higher reporting probability rather than the variable phantom mild illness at home cases
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:04 pm to slackster
quote:
It's quite difficult to extrapolate the surrounding cases based on one patient in critical condition.
If we're assuming that the population numbers in Korea (which seem large enough to use for statistical purposes) are reasonably accurate for the disease, then we can say that there would be a 1% (or 2%, whichever you like) chance of each case reaching critical condition or dying. Statistically, the most likely number of overall community cases that would produce one US case in critical condition is 1/.01 (or 1/.02). This doesn't account for undiagnosed cases in Korea, which would drive the implied US number of cases higher.
You can assume a higher or lower number of cases would produce one critical/fatal, but the further from the population average (Korean set) you go, the more of a statistical anomaly it becomes.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:10 pm to Scruffy
quote:
South Korea’s rate is currently <1%.
I think SK is probably getting the most accurate numbers anywhere and I do think the CFR is probably under 1% in places with decent health systems.
It's wild to me how many different scenarios are unfolding. Major successes in Hong Kong and Singapore, insane high CFR in Iran, rapid spread in Italy and SK with low CFR and disaster in Wuhan.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:19 pm to wareagle47
quote:
Were you joking or do you truly believe that? If the latter, how do you think it will manifest? Something similar to this outbreak, just with a higher mortality rate? A biological weapon of some sorts?
Since the eradication of smallpox and the suppression of various diseases by modern medicine, we have left an ecological niche wide arse open. It will be filled in one of three ways:
1)biological weapon release
2)novel virus
3)extant pathogenic disease that burns though our current treatments via resistance.
Of these, the latter two are the most likely. Despite this thread’s fetish for it, contagious biological weapons is not something that can be casually released or controlled. An MIRV deployed aerosol over a target area containing smallpox might be the only exception, but if things progress to that point it’s kind of a moot point anyway. What caused the bigger societal change? The weapon or the nukes/war associated with it? Disregarding might be wishful thinking, because anyone who thought this was a candidate for biowarfare is blissfully ignorant the shite that could be pulled in a semi competent modern lab.
The biggest difference between this virus and one that would have a lasting impact on society on a global scale is both on how aggressively it spreads and it’s clinical attack rate.
It’s no slouch in either, but doesn’t appear to really be a stop you in your tracks pandemic levels. This thread might have had a lot of instances of laundry bills from posters jizzing hard in their pants about asymptomatic cases but it was mostly at rate par for the course of epidemiology, no matter how hard layman articles tried to make a case that this fueled the crisis.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 9:20 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:20 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Big company but I’d rather not say.
I feel you. I am trying to be very careful when posting not to say too much or get doxxed.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:20 pm to Volvagia
SK has done 70,000 tests
That’s both amazing and disheartening at the same time that we haven’t had anywhere close to that response. Maybe because they have always been closer to a threat like this they had better plans in place.
I still like the amazon at home test kits. Jeff Bezos could buy everyone a test kit and drop it off on their porch and still have more money than most small nations. If you get a fever, test yourself then quarantine yourself. Make it happen Bezos.
That’s one way to get every single person in the country on Prime
That’s both amazing and disheartening at the same time that we haven’t had anywhere close to that response. Maybe because they have always been closer to a threat like this they had better plans in place.
I still like the amazon at home test kits. Jeff Bezos could buy everyone a test kit and drop it off on their porch and still have more money than most small nations. If you get a fever, test yourself then quarantine yourself. Make it happen Bezos.
That’s one way to get every single person in the country on Prime
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:27 pm to Volvagia
quote:
But but but, muh blocked roads.
The numbers from Wuhan can be debated but there is no debate that China deployed unprecedented quarantine measures. China implemented what is surely the largest quarantine in the history of the world and the virus still broke containment. People can provide their expert analysis on how bad things might or might not get but there is basically no chance to contain the virus at this point.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:32 pm to rds dc
Oh I don’t despute it was unprecedented. (Although I’m tempted to go back and reread those who said it wasn’t enough for a laugh. )
I just feel it’s was more a PR optics show/internal politics than it was a direct response to the virus. And yet it was used as evidence of how “bad” this was even before the first fatality.
Some auxiliary facts support this notion, specifically the firing of the official in charge of the more draconian actions and the Premier opining on the impact and effective need of them.
I just feel it’s was more a PR optics show/internal politics than it was a direct response to the virus. And yet it was used as evidence of how “bad” this was even before the first fatality.
Some auxiliary facts support this notion, specifically the firing of the official in charge of the more draconian actions and the Premier opining on the impact and effective need of them.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 9:35 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:35 pm to Volvagia
Would like to see the prisons in China tbh. They were organ harvesting prisoners and killing people. How many people died from other way, aka shot/killed? How many people have been rotting in their houses?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:36 pm to rds dc
Look for "biphasic" to be the new hotness for the various talking heads and doomsayers.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:39 pm to rds dc
quote:
Look for "biphasic" to be the new hotness
One of the more arousing terms in virology.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:44 pm to Volvagia
quote:
No. It’s as simple as that.
Even if San Francisco was on literal fire, and Trump tried to excert executive powers to contain it, someone somewhere tore up with TDS would seek an injunction from a federal judge.
Military will invoke martial law if they think it’s that bad. We can be as totalitarian as the rest of them.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:46 pm to Capt ST
Some possibly good news coming soon
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:52 pm to Capt ST
quote:
Military will invoke Marshall law if they think it’s that bad. We can be as totalitarian as the rest of them.
Only with an act of Congress however. And you don’t think the Dem faction wouldn’t be obstructionist to deny Trump tools to attempt to control the situation while acting like he was just trying to be an authoritative dictator and compare the push with the Enabling Act of 1933
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:54 pm to Capt ST
quote:
Military will invoke martial law if they think it’s that bad. We can be as totalitarian as the rest of them.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 9:54 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
frick you for spreading disinformation.
Wasn't that your stance this morning when Volv made a joke post?
Wasn't that your stance this morning when Volv made a joke post?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 10:18 pm to Volvagia
Yeah I’m sure there’d be some pushback, but ultimately I’d think it would have to be turned over to the military to handle. Just based off what we’ve seen, if it gets into slum areas it could run rampant, especially with the drug users.
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