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re: Patricia One of Strongest Hurricanes Ever! Peaked at 200 mph, 879 mb!!!

Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:47 pm to
Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83
Miami
Member since Oct 2007
45656 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:47 pm to
Looks like best case scenario for landfall is happening.

Meaning it is coming in inbetween the most densely populated areas.
This post was edited on 10/23/15 at 3:48 pm
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
179051 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

and wind down to 160 per the recon plane.


this is truly a non story at this point.
Posted by lsucoonass
shreveport and east texas
Member since Nov 2003
70012 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:50 pm to
Do you believe in geo-engineering?

There's a female poster that believes in it and hurricane Katrina was created by this machine in Alaska
Posted by pioneerbasketball
Team Bunchie
Member since Oct 2005
139098 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:51 pm to
Coast to coast am brah.

Weather manipulation.
Posted by lsucoonass
shreveport and east texas
Member since Nov 2003
70012 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:52 pm to
Nah I don't believe in that.

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

There's a female poster that believes in it and hurricane Katrina was created by this machine in Alaska




She's got to be a troll with that level of crazy.
Posted by sicboy
Because Awesome
Member since Nov 2010
79570 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:55 pm to
I live in the pnahandle of Florida and I want to say years ago (I think after Opal) a hurricane blew through there that was supposed to be really bad, maybe a cat 5. I remember my dad waking me up telling me it was going to be really bad. Ended up getting a lot of rain and not much damage. Just died off before hitting land. Had to be around the late 90's. Any of you weather fans know which hurricane this would have been?
Posted by lsucoonass
shreveport and east texas
Member since Nov 2003
70012 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:55 pm to
Hopefully she posts in this topic. I tried using physics and logic but that didn't work
Posted by pioneerbasketball
Team Bunchie
Member since Oct 2005
139098 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:56 pm to
Chem trails
Posted by lsucoonass
shreveport and east texas
Member since Nov 2003
70012 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:57 pm to
I'm guessing some wind shear weakened this big hurricane.

200 mph winds sustained that long is unreal
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14308 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:59 pm to
Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) just at the right time for Mexico, but La Manzanilla and San Patricio will still get the somewhat weaker eyewall.

That La Manzanilla beach cam is about to start going downhill real fast and soon. Center is about 35 miles away. This is a very compact storm.
This post was edited on 10/23/15 at 4:00 pm
Posted by Paige
Vice President of the OT
Member since Oct 2010
85640 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:59 pm to
Rehtaeh doesn't believe in logic
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:00 pm to
So it's still 190 per the NHC.

It was probably the eyewall replacement going on and running into a range a mountains that's causing it to weaken.
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109287 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

There's a female poster that believes in it and hurricane Katrina was created by this machine in Alaska


Probably rehtaeh.
Posted by lsucoonass
shreveport and east texas
Member since Nov 2003
70012 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:06 pm to
Would have been my second guess since Mexico is pretty mountainous.

I'd rather be back in the mountains of east Afghanistan and experience that crazy weather than this hurricane
Posted by lsucoonass
shreveport and east texas
Member since Nov 2003
70012 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:06 pm to
Yep that's her
Posted by lsucoonass
shreveport and east texas
Member since Nov 2003
70012 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:07 pm to
Nope not at all
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:07 pm to
LOCATION...18.9N 105.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...190 MPH...305 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed
little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured
192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,
with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye
dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become
cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an
outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an
increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the
hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,
and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a
Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few
hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of
Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly
weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36
hours, if not sooner.

Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion
of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a
mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion
toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's
life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the
previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies
near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to
the left of the center after that time.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and
hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying
areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate
immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the
Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the
center - about 15 miles across.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W 165 KT 190 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
This post was edited on 10/23/15 at 4:10 pm
Posted by Scoop
RIP Scoop
Member since Sep 2005
44583 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:07 pm to
Patricia stacked, San Patricio F'ed....
Posted by Sir Drinksalot
Member since Aug 2005
16871 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:12 pm to
Where is cantore?
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