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re: Patricia One of Strongest Hurricanes Ever! Peaked at 200 mph, 879 mb!!!
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:47 pm to Gris Gris
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:47 pm to Gris Gris
Looks like best case scenario for landfall is happening.
Meaning it is coming in inbetween the most densely populated areas.
Meaning it is coming in inbetween the most densely populated areas.
This post was edited on 10/23/15 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:48 pm to Duke
quote:
and wind down to 160 per the recon plane.
this is truly a non story at this point.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:50 pm to Duke
Do you believe in geo-engineering?
There's a female poster that believes in it and hurricane Katrina was created by this machine in Alaska
There's a female poster that believes in it and hurricane Katrina was created by this machine in Alaska
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:51 pm to lsucoonass
Coast to coast am brah.
Weather manipulation.
Weather manipulation.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:52 pm to pioneerbasketball
Nah I don't believe in that.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:53 pm to lsucoonass
quote:
There's a female poster that believes in it and hurricane Katrina was created by this machine in Alaska
She's got to be a troll with that level of crazy.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:55 pm to jdd48
I live in the pnahandle of Florida and I want to say years ago (I think after Opal) a hurricane blew through there that was supposed to be really bad, maybe a cat 5. I remember my dad waking me up telling me it was going to be really bad. Ended up getting a lot of rain and not much damage. Just died off before hitting land. Had to be around the late 90's. Any of you weather fans know which hurricane this would have been?
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:55 pm to Duke
Hopefully she posts in this topic. I tried using physics and logic but that didn't work
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:57 pm to lsucoonass
I'm guessing some wind shear weakened this big hurricane.
200 mph winds sustained that long is unreal
200 mph winds sustained that long is unreal
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:59 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) just at the right time for Mexico, but La Manzanilla and San Patricio will still get the somewhat weaker eyewall.
That La Manzanilla beach cam is about to start going downhill real fast and soon. Center is about 35 miles away. This is a very compact storm.
That La Manzanilla beach cam is about to start going downhill real fast and soon. Center is about 35 miles away. This is a very compact storm.
This post was edited on 10/23/15 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:59 pm to lsucoonass
Rehtaeh doesn't believe in logic
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:00 pm to lsucoonass
So it's still 190 per the NHC.
It was probably the eyewall replacement going on and running into a range a mountains that's causing it to weaken.
It was probably the eyewall replacement going on and running into a range a mountains that's causing it to weaken.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:00 pm to lsucoonass
quote:
There's a female poster that believes in it and hurricane Katrina was created by this machine in Alaska
Probably rehtaeh.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:06 pm to Duke
Would have been my second guess since Mexico is pretty mountainous.
I'd rather be back in the mountains of east Afghanistan and experience that crazy weather than this hurricane
I'd rather be back in the mountains of east Afghanistan and experience that crazy weather than this hurricane
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:07 pm to PsychTiger
LOCATION...18.9N 105.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...190 MPH...305 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed
little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured
192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,
with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye
dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become
cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an
outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an
increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the
hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,
and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a
Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few
hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of
Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly
weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36
hours, if not sooner.
Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion
of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a
mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion
toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's
life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the
previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies
near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to
the left of the center after that time.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and
hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying
areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate
immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall.
2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.
3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the
Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the
center - about 15 miles across.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W 165 KT 190 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...190 MPH...305 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed
little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured
192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,
with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye
dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become
cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an
outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an
increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the
hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,
and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a
Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few
hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of
Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly
weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36
hours, if not sooner.
Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion
of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a
mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion
toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's
life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the
previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies
near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to
the left of the center after that time.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and
hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying
areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate
immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall.
2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.
3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the
Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the
center - about 15 miles across.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W 165 KT 190 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
This post was edited on 10/23/15 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 10/23/15 at 4:07 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Patricia stacked, San Patricio F'ed....


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