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Oil prices could climb; 2024 US production growth outlook halved by RBC Capital
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:06 am
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:06 am
quote:
The world's oil supply is about to get way tighter and send crude prices climbing, according to commodities expert Helima Croft.
The global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets pointed to signs that supply-demand imbalance in oil markets could soon tip in the other direction, as the world's crude production is poised to slow. That could cause Brent crude, the international benchmark, to hit $85 in the second half of 2024, Croft predicted.
The US, which saw a "blockbuster" year for oil production in 2023, isn't likely to churn out crude at the same speed it did last year. US production growth could crater in half from 1 million to just 500,000 barrels a day this year, Croft predicted, citing her conversations with other oil market watchers at the recent International Energy Week conference.
"It's not that we're saying … US production is not going to grow," Croft said in an interview with CNBC on Monday. "It's just a question about, were the gains that we saw last year due to particular unique circumstances that are not going to be replicated this year."
quote:
The same also applies to major oil producers like Guyana, who may not be able to replicate their monster oil boom in 2023.
quote:
OPEC+ is also looking to continue its aggressive production cuts. Members of the oil cartel said they would extend the group's 2.2 million barrel-a-day production cut through June. Saudi Arabia, the oil cartel's de facto leader, will continue its voluntary production cut of a million barrels a day, while Russia will cut production an extra 471,000 barrels a day.
Announcement of those cuts has already caused oil prices to tick higer. Brent crude traded around $82 a barrel on Monday, up around 8% from its levels at the start of the year.
"I do think sentiment is starting to turn, but again, we're not seeing yet the runaway path to a hundred [dollars a barrel]," Croft added.
At the same time, the world's oil demand is rising, and could peak around 1.2 million barrels a day in 2028, the IEA estimated. That could mean the oil market will see a shortage as soon as 2025, Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub recently warned.
LINK
Crawfish prices are absolutely fricked for 2026.
8
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:14 am to ragincajun03
Good on both fronts for me. We have several geothermal projects planned for this year to go along with our dirty stuff. I got a free trip to Vienna this week to discuss one of the geothermal projects we will be doing smack in the middle of the city.
This post was edited on 3/6/24 at 10:45 am
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:25 am to ragincajun03
Why would anyone predict that US oil production would be cut in half this year? There's no basis for such a prediction.
EDIT: reading more better, the prediction is that US oil production will continue to increase, but its GROWTH won't be as great as last year, meaning that production won't go down, it just won't increase at the same rate in increased last year.
Now that makes more sense.
EDIT: reading more better, the prediction is that US oil production will continue to increase, but its GROWTH won't be as great as last year, meaning that production won't go down, it just won't increase at the same rate in increased last year.
Now that makes more sense.
This post was edited on 3/6/24 at 10:29 am
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:28 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Why would anyone predict that US oil production would be cut in half this year? There's no basis for such a prediction
It's almost like they are saying their production is gonna be halved but their actual plan is to send half to other markets to capitalize on the global shortage
This post was edited on 3/6/24 at 10:29 am
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:31 am to ragincajun03
[Insert Wolf Of Wallstreet "They go up, they go down its a wizzy it's a wazzy meme]
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:40 am to Pauvetibete
Gas prices going up here in KC. Mid January I paid 2.52. Paid 3.29 this morning.
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:50 am to KCkid
That’s likely due almost entirely to refinery utilization taking a massive shite in jan and feb.
We were in the mid 90s for refinery capacity much of last year but we are off to a rocky start in 2024. Dropped into the low 80s in feb.
We were in the mid 90s for refinery capacity much of last year but we are off to a rocky start in 2024. Dropped into the low 80s in feb.
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:50 am to KCkid
quote:
Gas prices going up here in KC. Mid January I paid 2.52. Paid 3.29 this morning.
1- EIA reported total motor gasoline inventories decreased from last week.
LINK
2- SUPPOSEDLY (Not sure if true), Kansas City is a region where retailers have ignored daily fluctuations (at least the increases) in market prices for possibly weeks at a time in order to try to undercut each other, then one finally give in to get its margins back in line, and the others follow suit.
I don’t know if that’s completely true.
Also, I think I read somewhere that a Midwest refinery or two was severely restrained or even down, though I’d have to go back and try to look that up. Maybe I just imagined that.
This post was edited on 3/6/24 at 10:52 am
Posted on 3/6/24 at 10:56 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
That’s likely due almost entirely to refinery utilization taking a massive shite in jan and feb.
We were in the mid 90s for refinery capacity much of last year but we are off to a rocky start in 2024. Dropped into the low 80s in feb
Are the wildfires having any effect?
Posted on 3/6/24 at 11:01 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Oil prices could climb
I just put in my order for my new F350 jacked up and squatted.
Getting a customized hitch welded up by the baws at the shop that will hold up my truck nuts above the rear custom bumper so they don't drag on the ground. Who should I take it to to get my super LED headlights adjusted back down to eye level for all the poors?
Posted on 3/6/24 at 11:02 am to KCkid
quote:3.19 in wichita
Gas prices going up here in KC. Mid January I paid 2.52. Paid 3.29 this morning.
Posted on 3/6/24 at 11:03 am to ragincajun03
As soon as the election is over, watch out!
Posted on 3/6/24 at 11:18 am to Lonnie Utah
quote:
As soon as the election is over, watch out!
Can’t wait, baw. When Trump gets back in, it’s gonna be drill baby drill to energy independence once again.
$1.99/gallon gas, here we come!
Posted on 3/6/24 at 11:52 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Can’t wait, baw. When Trump gets back in, it’s gonna be drill baby drill to energy independence once again.
LOL
What’s funny is many won’t get this
Posted on 3/6/24 at 11:56 am to ragincajun03
Congrats O&G baws. You never stop winning.
Posted on 3/6/24 at 12:05 pm to TBoy
quote:
EDIT: reading more better, the prediction is that US oil production will continue to increase, but its GROWTH won't be as great as last year, meaning that production won't go down, it just won't increase at the same rate in increased last year.
i imagine its hard to grow production at the same rate as previous years when we are already producing more crude than any other country in history
The United States is producing more oil than any country in history
quote:
As the world grapples with the existential crisis of climate change, environmental activists want President Joe Biden to phase out the oil industry, and Republicans argue he’s already doing that. Meanwhile, the surprising reality is the United States is pumping oil at a blistering pace and is on track to produce more oil than any country has in history.
The United States is set to produce a global record of 13.3 million barrels per day of crude and condensate during the fourth quarter of this year, according to a report published Tuesday by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
We eclipsed 13.3mmbpd last month
This post was edited on 3/6/24 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 3/6/24 at 12:05 pm to ragincajun03
quote:
Can’t wait, baw. When Trump gets back in, it’s gonna be drill baby drill to energy independence once again
Posted on 3/6/24 at 12:50 pm to ragincajun03
quote:
It's not that we're saying … US production is not going to grow,"
Production will grow. Just not grow as much as last year.
quote:
The same also applies to major oil producers like Guyana, who may not be able to replicate their monster oil boom in 2023.
I don’t agree with this at all.
Posted on 3/6/24 at 1:31 pm to kciDAtaE
quote:
I don’t agree with this at all.
What if operators don’t want to drill and produce until the border dispute is settled?
Posted on 3/6/24 at 1:40 pm to ragincajun03
quote:
Also, I think I read somewhere that a Midwest refinery or two was severely restrained or even down
That wouldn't be surprising. Our current fuel bottleneck isn't oil, it's gasoline refinement capacity.
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