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Oil Price Piece: What’s Really Happening With Gasoline Demand?
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:15 am
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:15 am
quote:
President Biden recently boasted on Twitter that gasoline prices in the United States have been falling for 50 days straight, noting this was the fastest decline in a decade. The president added a sort of infographic to his tweet informing us that 50 percent of gas stations sold gasoline for $3.99 or less a gallon. What he forgot to mention was that demand for gasoline has been behaving very unnaturally for this time of year.
Standard Chartered this week released a commodity alert that said that this year, driving season in the U.S. never really materialized. The report noted substantial demand declines for both June and July, adding, however, that the recent price decline should result in a pick-up in demand this month.
There has been a lot of talk about the cure for higher oil prices being higher prices still. It appears this might have happened in the U.S. as prices for gasoline earlier this year hit the highest level in several decades. And the national average is still above $4 per gallon, according to AAA.
No wonder then, with inflation raging on, people are opting not to drive, which is affecting demand. According to StanChart data, in July, gasoline demand in the U.S. dropped by 7.6 percent on the year to 8.592 million barrels daily, which, the report noted, was the lowest demand level since 1997 except for the lockdown-heavy 2020.
quote:
Bloomberg’s observation about gasoline demand trends made a splash on Twitter, prompting a lot of analysts to weigh in on the discussion of whether it is possible that this year’s driving season could have been worse for gasoline demand than the lockdown summer of 2020.
quote:
Indeed, whether or not demand for gasoline was lower this July than in July 2020 is not as relevant as the answer to the question of why, despite such a stable and continued decline in prices, Americans are not driving more.
The most obvious answer would be, of course, inflation. Economists, government officials, and journalists are debating the definition of recession, whether or not the presence of a recession on the United States’ books is relevant to anything, and whether the current situation is not a masked form of economic growth.
In the meantime, the actual prices of actual goods and services are rising. As prices rise, consumption begins to dip.
quote:
It is therefore questionable how much credit for the 50-day price decline in gasoline the Biden administration could reasonably claim. They did not exactly open more refineries or stimulate more oil drilling - and even if they had, it would have taken time to get that new production to the market.
It was largely market forces that led to the lower prices. And also to lower consumption that may or may not have been even lower than consumption during the lockdown summer of 2020. Now, with prices lower, demand will very likely start picking up, as suggested by GasBuddy’s real-life data. The more important question then would be how long it will be until prices start climbing up again amid extra-strong exports of both gasoline and diesel.
LINK
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:20 am to ragincajun03
Biden is so full of sit. Demand drop off and summer blends ending soon will drop the price of gas after the summer anyway.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:22 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Standard Chartered this week released a commodity alert that said that this year, driving season in the U.S. never really materialized. The report noted substantial demand declines for both June and July, ...
No wonder then, with inflation raging on, people are opting not to drive, which is affecting demand.
Just remember: this is exactly what they want. The goal was to get you out of your car and using less gasoline. The green reset and war on oil just chalked up a huge victory.
Biden: 1
Baws: 0
This post was edited on 8/8/22 at 7:23 am
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:29 am to ragincajun03
At some point we are all going to be standing around in cheese lines reading about how great the economy is doing.
Turning into North Korea fast as hell.
Turning into North Korea fast as hell.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:33 am to ragincajun03
The key to lower gas prices is runaway inflation which in turn causes a recession.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:34 am to holmesbr
Before you morons start blaming presidents read the book Rigged: The True Story of an Ivy League Kid Who Changed the World Of Oil, from Wall St to Dubai.
It does a good job of explaining how oil prices work and it has 0 to do with elected officials.
It does a good job of explaining how oil prices work and it has 0 to do with elected officials.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:35 am to ragincajun03
Biden is working very hard behind the scenes and bring prices down. He is showing to be an effective leader.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:35 am to ragincajun03
quote:
and whether the current situation is not a masked form of economic growth.
Yes yes. Chaining together quarters of negative GDP is definitely a sign of growth.
quote:
It was largely market forces that led to the lower prices
That sneaky invisible hand.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:36 am to ragincajun03
I’ve been told repeatedly by the OT Lefties that the President doesn’t control gas prices.
beat me to it. Riddle me this: why is he bragging about gas prices then?
quote:
It does a good job of explaining how oil prices work and it has 0 to do with elected officials.
beat me to it. Riddle me this: why is he bragging about gas prices then?
This post was edited on 8/8/22 at 7:38 am
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:37 am to tadman
I don't care if it's been dropping or not, let me know when it gets back to the prices when he took office back in 2020. It was a $1.87 a gallon back then! These people are morons.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:38 am to ragincajun03
The EIA is working hand in hand with this bozo administration to cook numbers. They mysteriously suffered a “voltage issue” and couldn’t report basic data for over a week and ever since then the data has been very suspect.
Who actually believes there are less cars on the road now than in July 2020 when barely anyone was going to work? It’s impossible.
Every downstream CEO on earnings calls, gas buddy data ,AAA etc says demand is strong.
Meanwhile bozo’s twitter feed keeps claiming the “wins” while also draining the SPR.
Look at how the media is spinning this bogus new “inflation reduction act” which will create more greenflation and bring on higher interest rates. These guys are acting like they just saved the planet - pathetic.
Who actually believes there are less cars on the road now than in July 2020 when barely anyone was going to work? It’s impossible.
Every downstream CEO on earnings calls, gas buddy data ,AAA etc says demand is strong.
Meanwhile bozo’s twitter feed keeps claiming the “wins” while also draining the SPR.
Look at how the media is spinning this bogus new “inflation reduction act” which will create more greenflation and bring on higher interest rates. These guys are acting like they just saved the planet - pathetic.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:38 am to ragincajun03
Once these new taxes kick in its gonna get uglier than it is now.
The plan is to destroy the middle class. And it is working.
The plan is to destroy the middle class. And it is working.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:39 am to OweO
quote:
does a good job of explaining how oil prices work and it has 0 to do with elected officials.
Officials can affect it through policies that push increased supply or cut supply
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:41 am to deltaland
i like how he prefaced his post with “you morons”. then post that disingenuous horseshite
This post was edited on 8/8/22 at 7:42 am
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:41 am to deltaland
quote:
Officials can affect it through policies that push increased supply or cut supply
Yeahhh.. But that's why they have lobbyist.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:42 am to OweO
quote:
It does a good job of explaining how oil prices work and it has 0 to do with elected officials.
I'll agree oil prices (and in turn gasoline prices) have much less to do with an American President than the majority of this board believes or wants to believe.
However, the effect isn't zero. The Department of Interior is under the Executive Branch, and when you have the current situation of no one understanding what the rules are going to be month to month (the Biden Administration has flipped back and forth several times), then that gives uncertainty to the markets and the industry and can curtail planning for larger rig schedules and capital investment for necessary infrastructure needed to bring increased production online.
So yes, there is some effect. President Obama disliked fossil fuel exploration and production, but at least his administration via the Dept. of Interior established a consistent set of rules that industry could expect and plan to play by. Two and a half years into President Biden's term, and we still don't know what the rules are or are going to be. Hell, they don't even know.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:42 am to ragincajun03
It’s pretty brazen that his administration was blaming gas prices on Putin and literally saying that presidents can’t control gas prices when the price was going up, and now that gas prices are going down they’re blasting every form of media taking direct credit I mean that’s a pretty bold strategy.
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:42 am to ragincajun03
His base will eat these lies up, it is what they do
They are pretty nuts
They are pretty nuts
Posted on 8/8/22 at 7:45 am to ragincajun03
Yeah we are in a recession so prices are declining due to less demand for goods and services.
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