re: New Year’s Day Severe Weather Thread - Enhanced Risk in AL, TN, MS, AR

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Mesoscale Discussion 0011 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...North/Northeast MS...Northern AL...Middle TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...4...5...

Valid 012127Z - 012300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm threat, including the potential for a tornado, continues ahead of the outflow boundary from northeast MS across northern AL into middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Despite an abundance of warm sector development, most of this activity has failed to materialize into supercells thus far. The only exception is the pair of northeastward moving supercells, one over far north-central MS and the other over far northwest AL. Westernmost cell in this pair has begun to interact with the outflow while the easternmost cell is still slightly ahead of the boundary and may be able to remain more intense for a bit longer.

While some weakening of the buoyancy has occurred, this narrow corridor ahead of the outflow still represents the best area for potential severe thunderstorms for the next few hours.

..Mosier.. 01/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 34198907 34468923 34908862 35268692 36278503 36618444 36408378 35908433 34668581 34348721 34198907

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As Duke would say, there's a chance for the mesoscale to do something with the outflow boundary. Otherwise, the cap is still in place.


Wind has calmed and shifted more out of the SW instead of due South. That's actually favorable for strengthening rotation, though.

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Surprised they’ve never issued a tornado warning on that one.

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I mean that cell ENE of Belmont sure looks like a warning is warranted. Velocity and hook on radar look no bueno in my amateur opinion.

Guess that's why they let the pros handle it.

SPC also mentioned that the cap was holding firm in the mesoscale discussion they issued a little while ago.

quote:

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SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm threat, including the potential for a
tornado, continues ahead of the outflow boundary from northeast MS
across northern AL into middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Despite an abundance of warm sector development, most
of this activity has failed to materialize into supercells thus far.
The only exception is the pair of northeastward moving supercells,
one over far north-central MS and the other over far northwest AL.
Westernmost cell in this pair has begun to interact with the outflow
while the easternmost cell is still slightly ahead of the boundary
and may be able to remain more intense for a bit longer.

While some weakening of the buoyancy has occurred, this narrow
corridor ahead of the outflow still represents the best area for
potential severe thunderstorms for the next few hours.

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Getting late in the day to break the cap via surface heating mixing.

And here we go

Reed Timmer left the Pulaski area and then an hour later they issue a warning.

Yep. It was brief, though.

That rotation, as it is right now and has been for a couple hours now, isn't going to produce a long running tornado.

In Elkton or Nashville area?

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Hell they've dropped the warning already.

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Yeah, that was weird. Didn’t extend the warning or anything, even though 5 minutes earlier the warning update said confirmed tornado.